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Re-estimating the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 Forecast Using Updated Assumptions about the Internet Economy
John A. "Skip" Laitner,* Jonathan Koomey,**
Ernst Worrell,** and
This paper evaluates the potential influence of the emerging "Internet economy" on the nation's forecasted energy use and related carbon emissions. Our analysis shows small but significant differences in projections from just three modest changes in assumptions about the Internet and/or information-based economy. Other changes that could be important include reduced inventory and warehousing, reduced building construction, changes in other materials utilization, a greater trend toward outsourcing of energy services, and greater improvements in energy efficiency made possible by the new economy. Although the scale of impact for these initially analyzed effects is small, expansion of the scope of inquiry, as suggested by other recent analyses, may open up new and fruitful areas of research.
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