Was Demand Growth Unforeseen?
As early as 1988, CEC overpredicted 2000 demand
Early 90s recession led to lower growth
Root cause of power crisis was little new generation added 1994-1997 in Western U.S.
How accurate was the CEC forecast?
Again, we conclude that the demand growth was expected.
Slower growth in the early 90s helped keep demand growth lower than expected.
After looking into this further, we conclude that the root cause of the power crisis was a supply/demand imbalance caused by little new generation between 1994 and 1997. There are many reasons for little new generation, but the main one seems to be uncertainty about the restructured power market.
Looking in more detail, how accurate was the CEC forecast? Last Updated On: 8/19/04