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Clean Energy Futures Study: Sensitivity analysis

Project Description

The sensitivity analysis of the Clean Energy Future Study's Economic and Carbon Savings Results by Etan Gumerman (LBNL), Jonathan G. Koomey (LBNL) and Marilyn A. Brown (ORNL) leads to a deeper understanding of what drives the results of the CEF report. It provides more details on the direct costs and effectiveness of a carbon permit trading system, demand side efficiency programs, and supply side policies. It also illustrates how sensitive the advanced scenario results are to an increase in natural gas and oil prices compared to those prevailing in the Clean Energy Futures advanced case. Read the sensitivity paper (pdf, 56K) as submitted for publication in Energy Policy.

Data and results

In this page you can find all the files with a summary and organization of the results of both the CEF report and the paper.

There are two different kinds of files, the Energy/Carbon files that contain various sheets with information on energy use and carbon emissions, and the cost files that contain sheets with information on costs for investments and programs. The files are in Microsoft Excel 97/98 format; the size of the energy and carbon files is 1.2 MB, the cost files are 688 K. The files for each sensitivity case are listed below.

Policy Implementation Carbon Charge
Demand Supply Other $0 $25 $50
BAU BAU Energy / Carbon
BAU BAU Energy / Carbon | Cost
BAU BAU Energy / Carbon | Cost
BAU BAU Fos Energy / Carbon
BAU BAU G-red100 Energy / Carbon
BAU BAU Gred100, HDG Energy / Carbon
BAU BAU Gred50, HDG Energy / Carbon
Mod Mod Energy / Carbon | Cost
Mod Mod Energy / Carbon | Cost
Mod Mod Energy / Carbon | Cost
Mod Mod Fos Energy / Carbon
BAU Mod Energy / Carbon
Adv Adv Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv Adv Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv Adv Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv BAU Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv BAU Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv BAU Energy / Carbon | Cost
BAU Adv Energy / Carbon | Cost
BAU Adv Energy / Carbon | Cost
BAU Adv Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv Adv HRen Energy / Carbon
Adv Adv Fos Energy / Carbon
Adv Adv RPS Energy / Carbon |
BAU Adv Gred100, Nuc Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv Adv Gred100 Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv Adv Gred80 Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv Adv Gred50 Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv Adv Gred50, HDG Energy / Carbon | Cost
Adv Adv LWO Energy / Carbon | Cost

Note: The italicizized names correspond to the CEF study's main scenarios (BAU, Moderate, and Advanced). For clarity, every sensitivity file's name includes the policy implementation level as well as the carbon trading permit price. The CEF Advanced scenario is therefore called the "Adv $50" sensitivity, the Moderate Scenario is called "Mod $0," and Business-as-Usual Scenario is called "BAU $0".

Project Staff

Jonathan Koomey

Marilyn A. Brown

Etan Gumerman

Armande van Duin

Key Data

Table: Title, from Publication source. | Description and type (e.g. word, excel, etc.)


A HREF=" Policy 2.pdf" TITLE="Sensitivity Analysis Paper"> The sensitivity paper (pdf, 56K) Draft version as submitted for publication in Energy Policy

Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future This website contains the complete CEF report and appendices in PDF format.

Executive Summary of the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (pdf, 120k)

Chapter 1: Integrated Analysis and Conclusions of the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (pdf, 556k)

Other Resources

The Energy Analysis Department's Industrial Energy Use Group. This group assesses industrial energy use and efficiency around the world.

Energy Information Administration. The official U.S. government agency for energy statistics.

Beating the heat: Why and how we must combat global warming. This book provides a good introduction for the lay person to the issues surrounding climate change, and the potential solutions.

American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE): This non-profit organization promotes energy efficiency and pollution prevention through education, analysis, and advocacy.

Environmental Protection Agency's Global Warming Site: This site describes the scope of the climate problem, exploring both scientific and policy dimensions

International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths: This non-profit organization analyzes the costs of reducing carbon emissions and addresses the policy issues surrounding the design of sustainable energy strategies.

Tellus Institute, Energy Group: This organization is a non-profit consulting firm that analyzes greenhouse gas mitigation strategies and other energy policy issues

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Network (EREN): This part of DOE promotes the development and adoption of efficiency and renewable energy technologies. It also works with EPA to design voluntary programs to promote energy efficiency and reduce pollution.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Protection Division: This part of EPA designs voluntary programs to promote energy efficiency and reduce pollution.


This analysis built upon the Clean Energy Futures report, which was funded by the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U. S. Department of Energy. The funding to complete this paper was provided by the Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

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TEMA Group Site The Enduse Forecasting Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
 Last Updated On: 8/19/04