Project Description

The common perception among many policy makers and industry leaders is that the twin objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting a more competitive economy are inherently contradictory. Many believe that anything done to lower such emissions will necessarily restrict economic activity. Others argue that if the economy moves forward at current levels of efficiency, growth in greenhouse gas emissions will be inevitable and the global climate will be seriously damaged. Because of the "unavoidable tradeoff" between these two objectives, the various industry, government and environmental groups wage a constant policy battle over which objective merits the greater support. From a perspective of cost-effective investments in technology, however, it has become increasingly clear that these two goals are not at all contradictory. The reason is that the U.S. economy falls short of an optimal level of overall carbon efficiency. The reports highlighted in this section describe technology strategies to promote low carbon energy sources and improve efficiency.

Five Lab Study

This report presents the results of a study conducted by five U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories that quantifies the potential for energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies to reduce carbon emissions in the United States. Three overarching conclusions emerge from our analysis of alternative carbon reduction scenarios. First, a vigorous national commitment to develop and deploy cost-effective energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies could reverse the trend toward increasing carbon emissions. Along with utility sector investments, such a commitment could halt the growth in U.S. energy consumption and carbon emissions so that levels in 2010 are close to those in 1997 (for energy) and in 1990 (for carbon). It must be noted that such a vigorous national commitment would have to go far beyond current efforts. Second, if feasible ways are found to implement the carbon reductions, the cases analyzed in the study are judged to yield energy savings that are roughly equal to or greater than costs. Third, a next generation of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies promises to enable the continuation of an aggressive pace of carbon reductions over the next quarter century.

LBNL-NEMS Analysis

This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options.

The High-Efficiency Low Carbon scenario analyzed in this study would result in significant annual net savings to the U.S. economy, even after accounting for all relevant investment costs and program implementation costs. This strategy would result in roughly half of the carbon reductions needed to meet the Kyoto target being achieved from domestic U.S. investments. Not pursuing this technology-led investment strategy would have an opportunity cost of more than $50B per year for the U.S. in 2010 and more than $100B per year by 2020.

Project Staff

Jonathan Koomey

R. Cooper Richey

Lynn Price

Nathan Martin

Mark D. Levine

Alan H. Sanstad

Key Data

Output tables from LBNL-NEMS analysis, in Microsoft Excel 5.0 format (NEMSsumm.xls)

Publications

Five Lab Study

Jonathan G. Koomey, R. Cooper Richey, Skip Laitner, Robert J. Markel, and Chris Marnay. 1998. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis Using the LBNL-NEMS Model. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. LBNL-42054 Abstract | 215K PDF

Koomey, Jonathan G. 1996. "Trends in Carbon Emissions from U.S. Residential and Commercial Buildings: Implications for Policy Priorities." Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL-39421. June. Abstract | 68K PDF
A summary of this report is also available.

Other Resources

Beating the heat: Why and how we must combat global warming. This book provides a good introduction for the lay person to the issues surrounding climate change, and the potential solutions.

American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE): This non-profit organization promotes energy efficiency and pollution prevention through education, analysis, and advocacy.

British Petroleum: This site describes BP's position on climate change.

Environmental Protection Agency's Global Warming Site - This site describes the scope of the climate problem, exploring both scientific and policy dimensions

International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths: This non-profit organization analyzes the costs of reducing carbon emissions and addresses the policy issues surrounding the design of sustainable energy strategies.

Tellus Institute: This organization is a non-profit consulting firm that analyzes greenhouse gas mitigation strategies and other energy policy issues

Trexler and Associates: This firm identifies and implements greenhouse gas emissions reduction and offset strategies for corporations and other institutions.

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Network (EREN): This part of DOE promotes the development and adoption of efficiency and renewable energy technologies. It also works with EPA to design voluntary programs to promote energy efficiency and reduce pollution.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Division: This part of EPA designs voluntary programs to promote energy efficiency and reduce pollution.

The White House Initiative on Climate Change: This site describes the Administration's position on climate change, and contains helpful general information about the science and policy issues surrounding this problem.

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