Energy End-Use Forecasting
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Use of the National Energy Modeling System at LBNL

Project Description

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is an energy policy model of the U.S. Department of Energy. NEMS is used by EIA to produce their official annual forecast of U.S. energy use, the "Annual Energy Outlook." NEMS is an all-sector, integrating model of the U.S. energy system that is unique in its comprehensive treatment of supply-side technologies (particularly in the electricity sector) and its detailed treatment of energy demand at the end-use level.

LBNL has used the NEMS model since 1995, and is one of the few users of the full NEMS system outside of EIA itself. We run NEMS on the same computer platform that EIA uses (RS/6000, under AIX). LBNL creates new energy-use scenarios by varying the assumptions used in the model; this technique enables researchers to compare the forecasted effects of potential energy policy options. The diagram below illustrates the many different categories of data that can be incorporated into energy use forecasts that are produced using the NEMS model.

Schematic representation of the NEMS modeling system
Schematic representation of the NEMS modeling system

LBNL researchers have used NEMS for analysis of numerous topics, including the following:

In 1999, we are using NEMS for the Clean Energy Futures (CEF) study, which is a follow-up to the so-called "Five-Lab" study. The primary goals of the CEF study are to: (1) produce credible estimates of the potential for energy efficiency and clean energy technologies to address the multiple energy and environmental challenges of the 21st century; (2) describe technology and policy pathways demonstrating this potential; and (3) compare the results of this analysis with other key studies. In the CEF study, LBNL is responsible for the sectoral analyses of buildings and industry, and for performing cost-effectiveness calculations that integrate data from the buildings and industry sectors with data from the electricity and transportation sectors. These analyses represent many person-years of effort and build upon LBNL's demonstrated expertise in buildings, industry, and the electricity sector.

Project Staff

Jonathan Koomey

Etan Gumerman

R. Cooper Richey

Julie G. Osborn

Chris Marnay

Lynn K. Price

Ernst Worrell

Key Data

Output tables from September 1998 LBNL-NEMS analysis- Excel 5.0 workbook

Summary table of "Potential Photovoltaic (PV) System Adoption Based on System Price" | 20 k excel 98 file

For information pertaining to the Renewable Portfolio Standard, contact Chris Marnay at LBNL (c_marnay@lbl.gov, (510) 486-7028)

Publications

Koomey, Jonathan G. 1996. "Trends in Carbon Emissions from U.S. Residential and Commercial Buildings: Implications for Policy Priorities." Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL-39421. June. Abstract | 68K PDF.
A summary of this report is also available.

Koomey, Jonathan G., R. Cooper Richey, Skip Laitner, Robert J. Markel, and Chris Marnay. 1998. "Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis Using the LBNL-NEMS Model." Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL-42054. Abstract | 215K PDF

Marnay, Chris, R. Cooper Richey, Susan Mahler, Sarah Bretz, and Robert Markel. 1997. "Estimating the Environmental and Economic Effects of Widespread Residential PV Adoption Using GIS and NEMS." Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL-41030. Abstract

Other Resources

Energy Information Administration Forecasting Page

Energy Star energy conservation energy savings energy efficiency environment climate change weatherization solar energy appliances energy audit energy tools efficient buildings energy education heating cooling heat pumps furnaces boilers air conditioners insulation ducts skylights windows thermostats fuel switching mechanical ventilation water heater water heating refrigerator freezer dishwasher clotheswasher clothes dryer miscellaneous energy home energy comfort remodeling residential energy.

TEMA Group Site The Enduse Forecasting Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
 Last Updated On: 8/19/04