Energy End-Use Forecasting
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Potential PV System Adoption based on System Price
State Potential Home-Owner Adoption at different System Prices (3)
(million households)
6 $/W 5 $/W 4 $/W 3 $/W
IL 0 0 0 1.96
OH 0 0 0 0.21
AZ 0 0 0.65 0.87
NM 0 0 0.22 0.32
NV 0 0 0 0.085
NJ 0 0 0 1.64
NY 0 0 1.14 1.48
PA 0 0 0 0.90
CT 0 0 0 0.58
MA 0 0 0.12 0.75
ME 0 0 0 0.35
NH 0 0 0 0.24
RI 0 0 0 0.22
CA 0 0.36 3.43 5.83
HI 0 0 0.06 0.19
MN 0 0 0 0
KS 0 0 0 0.21
AR 0 0 0 0.011
TX 0 0 0.11 0.17
total 0 0.36 5.73 16.01
assumed SMUD cost trajectory year (4) 1999 2001 2003 2007

(1) Assumes the residential price forecast in the AEO98 Reference Case Forecast.

(2) Assumes PV systems are financed using a home mortgage loan with a real interest rate of 5% and a loan life of 25 years.

(3) System prices are in 1997 $.

(4) System prices are assumed to occur as predicted in the SMUD Business-As-Usual SMUD Rooftop PV Cost Trajectory reported in:

Donald E. Osborn, "Commercialization of Utility PV Distributed Power Systems", American Solar Energy Society Solar 97 Conference, Washington, DC. April.

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TEMA Group Site The Enduse Forecasting Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
 Last Updated On: 8/19/04