Potential PV System Adoption based on System Price

Potential PV System Adoption based on System Price

State	Potential Home-Owner Adoption at different System Prices (3) (million households)
	6 $/W	5 $/W	4 $/W	3 $/W
IL	0	0	0	1.96
OH	0	0	0	0.21
AZ	0	0	0.65	0.87
NM	0	0	0.22	0.32
NV	0	0	0	0.085
NJ	0	0	0	1.64
NY	0	0	1.14	1.48
PA	0	0	0	0.90
CT	0	0	0	0.58
MA	0	0	0.12	0.75
ME	0	0	0	0.35
NH	0	0	0	0.24
RI	0	0	0	0.22
CA	0	0.36	3.43	5.83
HI	0	0	0.06	0.19
MN	0	0	0	0
KS	0	0	0	0.21
AR	0	0	0	0.011
TX	0	0	0.11	0.17
total	0	0.36	5.73	16.01

assumed SMUD cost trajectory year (4)	1999	2001	2003	2007

(1) Assumes the residential price forecast in the AEO98 Reference Case Forecast.

(2) Assumes PV systems are financed using a home mortgage loan with a real interest rate of 5% and a loan life of 25 years.

(3) System prices are in 1997 $.

(4) System prices are assumed to occur as predicted in the SMUD Business-As-Usual SMUD Rooftop PV Cost Trajectory reported in:

Donald E. Osborn, "Commercialization of Utility PV Distributed Power Systems", American Solar Energy Society Solar 97 Conference, Washington, DC. April.

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		TEMA Group Site The Technology Evaluation Modeling and Assessment Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The Technology Evaluation Modeling and Assessment Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The Technology Evaluation Modeling and Assessment Group
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory