Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future

Project Description

The study uses a scenario-based approach to examine alternative portfolios of public policies and technologies. It seeks to develop a better understanding of the potential for R&D programs and public policies to foster clean energy technology solutions to the energy and environmental challenges facing the nation. These challenges include global climate change, air pollution, oil dependence, and inefficiencies in the production and use of energy. This report is the successor to The Five Lab Study and a previous analysis for EPA . The Clean Energy Future analysis uses a modified version of the National Energy Modeling System.
 
It analyzes three major policy level scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Moderate, and Advanced. The BAU forecast assumes a continuation of current energy policies and a steady pace of technological progress. In contrast, the Moderate and Advanced scenarios are defined by policies that are consistent with increasing levels of public commitment and political resolve to solving the nation's energy-related challenges. Some of the public policies and programs that define the scenarios are crosscutting; others are designed individually for each sector (buildings, industry, transportation, and electric generators) and assessed for impacts out to 2020. Numerous policies are examined, including fiscal incentives, voluntary programs, regulations, and research and development.
 
Jonathan Koomey (LBNL) and Andrew Nicholls (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PNL) were the lead authors of Chapter 4: The Buildings sector. More information on the buildings analysis can be obtained here.
 
Ernst Worrell and Lynn Price (LBNL) were the lead authors of Chapter 5: The Industry sector. More information on the industry analysis can be obtained here.
 
David Greene (ORNL) and Steve Plotkin (Argonne National Laboratory, ANL) were the lead authors of Chapter 6: The Transportation sector.
 
Stanton Hadley (ORNL) and Walter Short (NREL) were the lead authors of Chapter 7: The Electricity sector.
 
The Clean Energy Future's report uses sensitivities to analyze the impact of certain policies. A sensitivity analysis of the Clean Energy Future study's economic and carbon savings results is made by Etan Gumerman (LBNL), Jonathan G. Koomey (LBNL) and Marilyn A. Brown (ORNL). Several data files have been examined to show the information that has come out of the sensitivity analyses. More information on this analysis is on the sensitivity analysis page.
 
Marilyn A. Brown (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL), Mark D. Levine (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL), and Walter Short (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL) provided the overall National Laboratory leadership for the Clean Energy Future's study.
 

Project Staff

Marilyn A. Brown
Mark D. Levine
Walter Short
Jonathan Koomey
Carrie Webber
Etan Gumerman
Celina Atkinson
Ernst Worrell
Lynn K. Price
Andrew Nicholls
David Greene
Stanton W. Hadley
Steve Plotkin
Armande van Duin
 

Key Data

NEMS' results on the three main policy implementations Business_As-Usual Energy / Carbon (Microsoft Excel 97/98, 1.2 MB), Moderate Energy / Carbon (Microsoft Excel 97/98, 1.2 MB) Moderate Cost (Microsoft Excel 97/98, 688 K) Advanced Energy / Carbon (Microsoft Excel 97/98, 1.2 MB) Advanced Cost (Microsoft Excel 97/98, 688 K).
 
To download more detailed scenario results, go to the sensitivity analysis page.
 

Publications
    Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future This website contains the complete CEF report and appendices in PDF format.
     
    Executive Summary of the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (pdf, 120k)
     
    Chapter 1: Integrated Analysis and Conclusions of the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (pdf, 556k)

Other Resources