1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary | | (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Production | +| | | Crude Oil & Lease Condensate..|15.57 15.70 15.22 14.54 13.77 13.08 12.57 12.10 11.73 11.33 11.01 10.74 10.58 10.45 10.36 10.25 10.20 10.32 10.41 10.48 10.80| | Natural Gas Plant Liquids.....| 2.17 2.30 2.36 2.37 2.37 2.39 2.44 2.45 2.47 2.49 2.54 2.58 2.61 2.65 2.68 2.70 2.70 2.73 2.73 2.70 2.70| | Dry Natural Gas 1/............|18.49 18.35 18.19 18.38 18.34 18.51 18.79 18.93 19.12 19.27 19.63 19.99 20.23 20.54 20.65 20.87 20.93 21.14 21.11 20.88 20.89| | Coal..........................|22.46 21.59 21.51 21.49 21.99 22.52 22.74 22.86 23.09 23.24 23.38 23.52 23.75 23.98 24.27 24.28 24.44 24.77 25.39 25.96 26.47| | Nuclear Power.................| 6.20 6.58 6.64 6.65 6.87 6.96 6.95 7.02 7.09 7.20 7.21 7.23 7.31 7.31 7.30 7.30 7.29 7.13 6.87 6.69 6.57| | Renewable Energy/Other 2/.....| 6.20 6.21 6.28 6.47 6.56 6.64 6.76 6.90 7.01 7.14 7.29 7.39 7.50 7.61 7.72 7.82 7.97 8.13 8.33 8.50 8.69| | Total.....................|71.08 70.74 70.21 69.90 69.91 70.10 70.25 70.25 70.50 70.67 71.06 71.46 71.99 72.53 72.99 73.23 73.53 74.23 74.84 75.21 76.12| | | +| | | Imports | +| | | Crude Oil 3/..................|12.80 12.55 13.24 14.42 15.41 16.02 16.88 17.31 17.74 18.13 18.73 18.85 19.15 19.44 19.56 19.78 20.03 19.99 20.03 19.87 19.62| | Petroleum Products 4/.........| 3.40 2.87 2.71 4.94 5.51 5.82 5.87 6.29 6.32 6.75 6.90 7.29 7.66 7.91 8.40 8.55 8.70 8.97 9.32 9.57 9.81| | Natural Gas 5/................| 1.54 1.78 1.90 2.19 2.59 2.87 2.96 3.05 3.09 3.14 3.19 3.22 3.25 3.28 3.43 3.59 3.79 3.86 3.94 4.05 4.16| | Other Imports 6/..............| 0.73 0.78 0.96 1.07 1.02 1.13 1.30 1.31 1.33 1.32 1.49 1.44 1.35 1.42 1.42 1.47 1.50 1.52 1.56 1.58 1.61| | Total.....................|18.46 17.99 18.82 22.62 24.53 25.84 27.01 27.95 28.48 29.34 30.31 30.80 31.40 32.04 32.81 33.39 34.01 34.34 34.85 35.07 35.21| | | +| | | Exports | +| | | Petroleum.....................| 1.82 2.13 2.02 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12| | Natural Gas...................| 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30| | Coal..........................| 2.70 2.80 2.66 2.14 2.50 2.90 2.96 3.03 3.12 3.21 3.31 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.54 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75| | Total.....................| 4.61 5.06 4.84 4.42 4.79 5.21 5.29 5.37 5.47 5.56 5.68 5.72 5.78 5.82 5.87 5.92 5.97 6.02 6.08 6.12 6.17| | | +| | | Discrepancy 7/...................|-0.64 1.08 1.45 -0.08 -0.11 -0.01 -0.24 -0.12 0.10 0.11 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.15 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.03 0.13 0.07| | | +| | | Consumption | +| | | Petroleum Products 8/.........|33.55 33.50 33.65 34.95 35.59 35.99 36.44 36.90 37.27 37.68 38.23 38.57 39.01 39.50 39.92 40.29 40.69 41.09 41.44 41.69 42.00| | Natural Gas...................|19.31 19.61 20.00 20.48 20.83 21.28 21.64 21.85 22.08 22.27 22.67 23.06 23.32 23.66 23.93 24.31 24.56 24.84 24.88 24.76 24.89| | Coal..........................|19.01 18.77 18.99 19.44 19.61 19.78 19.88 20.00 20.11 20.22 20.29 20.37 20.48 20.75 20.99 20.95 21.06 21.36 21.96 22.47 22.88| | Nuclear Power.................| 6.20 6.58 6.64 6.65 6.87 6.96 6.95 7.02 7.09 7.20 7.21 7.23 7.31 7.31 7.30 7.30 7.29 7.13 6.87 6.69 6.57| | Renewable Energy/Other 9/.....| 6.23 6.30 6.37 6.49 6.62 6.72 6.82 6.95 7.05 7.19 7.34 7.45 7.57 7.69 7.81 7.94 8.10 8.28 8.49 8.68 8.89| | Total.......................|84.29 84.76 85.64 88.02 89.53 90.72 91.73 92.71 93.61 94.56 95.73 96.69 97.69 98.89 100.0 100.8 101.7 102.7 103.6 104.3 105.2| | | +| | | Net Imports - Petroleum..........|14.37 13.30 13.93 17.24 18.80 19.73 20.63 21.48 21.94 22.77 23.51 24.03 24.69 25.23 25.84 26.22 26.61 26.84 27.23 27.32 27.32| | | +| | | Prices (1992 dollars per unit) | +| | | World Oil Price ($ per bbl) 10/.|23.22 19.18 18.19 16.69 16.43 16.99 17.66 18.28 19.06 19.89 20.72 21.65 22.61 23.51 24.29 24.90 25.60 26.30 27.00 27.64 28.16| | Gas Wellhead Price($ per Mcf)11/| 1.85 1.69 1.83 1.94 2.03 2.11 2.19 2.29 2.35 2.39 2.42 2.47 2.55 2.65 2.75 2.89 3.01 3.17 3.30 3.35 3.47| | Coal Minemouth Price ($ per ton)|23.22 22.04 21.39 21.75 22.06 23.46 24.50 24.41 24.17 25.05 25.29 26.04 26.58 26.79 27.15 27.00 28.50 28.98 28.95 30.27 30.87| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 2. Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Source | | (Quadrillion Btu per Year) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Residential | +| | | Distillate Fuel...............| 0.84 0.87 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.87| | Kerosene......................| 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06| | Liquefied Petroleum Gas.......| 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33| | Natural Gas...................| 4.52 4.70 4.82 4.98 5.02 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.99 5.00 5.00 4.99 4.98 4.98 4.97 4.98 4.97 4.97 4.98 4.99| | Coal..........................| 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05| | Renewable Energy 1/...........| 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66| | Electricity...................| 3.15 3.22 3.20 3.25 3.27 3.29 3.31 3.34 3.36 3.37 3.39 3.42 3.43 3.45 3.47 3.49 3.52 3.55 3.57 3.60 3.63| | Total.......................| 9.61 9.89 10.06 10.31 10.36 10.36 10.37 10.38 10.40 10.40 10.41 10.43 10.43 10.44 10.45 10.46 10.49 10.51 10.53 10.56 10.60| | | +| | | Commercial | +| | | Distillate Fuel...............| 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.49| | Kerosene......................| 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01| | Motor Gasoline 2/.............| 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11| | Residual Fuel.................| 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22| | Natural Gas...................| 2.70 2.76 2.78 2.80 2.81 2.83 2.84 2.85 2.86 2.87 2.88 2.89 2.90 2.92 2.93 2.94 2.95 2.96 2.98 2.99 3.01| | Other 3/......................| 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15| | Renewable Energy 4/...........| 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03| | Electricity...................| 2.86 2.91 2.96 3.00 3.03 3.09 3.14 3.19 3.24 3.26 3.30 3.34 3.38 3.41 3.42 3.44 3.47 3.48 3.50 3.49 3.51| | Total.......................| 6.57 6.68 6.75 6.82 6.87 6.94 7.00 7.06 7.13 7.16 7.22 7.27 7.32 7.36 7.38 7.41 7.45 7.47 7.50 7.51 7.55| | | +| | | Industrial 5/ | +| | | Distillate Fuel...............| 1.18 1.14 1.19 1.21 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.47 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.55 1.56| | Liquefied Petroleum Gas.......| 1.61 1.75 1.71 1.73 1.77 1.81 1.84 1.88 1.91 1.95 1.99 2.03 2.06 2.12 2.17 2.20 2.23 2.28 2.32 2.36 2.40| | Motor Gasoline................| 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26| | Petrochemical Feedstocks......| 1.10 1.13 1.12 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.41 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.56 1.59| | Residual Fuel.................| 0.42 0.34 0.37 0.50 0.54 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45| | Other Petroleum 6/............| 3.82 3.52 3.47 3.99 4.06 4.17 4.30 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.38 4.37 4.38 4.40 4.42 4.43 4.48 4.52 4.53 4.56 4.55| | Natural Gas 7/................| 8.52 8.66 8.71 8.76 8.90 9.05 9.17 9.19 9.29 9.43 9.61 9.75 9.84 10.00 10.11 10.20 10.28 10.39 10.48 10.57 10.69| | Metallurgical Coal............| 1.04 0.91 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57| | Steam Coal....................| 1.71 1.69 1.60 1.70 1.73 1.78 1.79 1.82 1.85 1.95 1.91 1.95 1.99 2.04 2.08 2.11 2.13 2.17 2.20 2.21 2.24| | Net Coal Coke Imports.........| 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02| | Renewable Energy..............| 1.96 1.93 1.99 2.06 2.13 2.18 2.23 2.28 2.31 2.35 2.40 2.44 2.48 2.53 2.58 2.62 2.66 2.72 2.76 2.80 2.84| | Electricity...................| 3.23 3.23 3.27 3.39 3.50 3.55 3.58 3.65 3.70 3.77 3.84 3.90 3.96 4.05 4.13 4.18 4.24 4.32 4.38 4.44 4.50| | Total.......................|24.78 24.48 24.57 25.60 26.16 26.56 26.95 27.21 27.45 27.88 28.27 28.58 28.90 29.34 29.74 30.02 30.34 30.74 31.07 31.36 31.68| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 2. Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Source (Continued) | | (Quadrillion Btu per Year) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Transportation | +| | | Distillate Fuel...............| 3.83 4.03 4.15 4.29 4.44 4.53 4.58 4.64 4.69 4.77 4.87 4.95 5.03 5.14 5.23 5.32 5.42 5.54 5.64 5.71 5.82| | Jet Fuel 8/...................| 3.13 3.18 3.23 3.27 3.33 3.35 3.40 3.48 3.56 3.63 3.72 3.79 3.87 3.94 4.01 4.08 4.16 4.24 4.31 4.37 4.44| | Motor Gasoline 2/.............|13.58 13.55 13.71 13.98 14.17 14.37 14.46 14.59 14.72 14.86 15.03 15.15 15.26 15.36 15.42 15.50 15.57 15.61 15.66 15.70 15.76| | Residual Fuel.................| 1.03 1.04 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.17 1.20 1.23 1.26 1.29 1.32 1.36 1.39 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.51 1.55 1.58 1.61 1.64| | Liquefied Petroleum Gas.......| 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20| | Other Petroleum 9/............| 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24| | Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas.....| 0.68 0.62 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73| | Compressed Natural Gas........| 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.37| | Renewables (ethanol) 10/......| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06| | Liquid Hydrogen...............| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00| | Methanol 11/..................| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06| | Electricity...................| 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19| | Total.......................|22.56 22.73 23.14 23.62 24.08 24.45 24.72 25.06 25.38 25.74 26.16 26.49 26.85 27.23 27.55 27.91 28.26 28.61 28.92 29.18 29.50| | | +| | | Electric Utilities 12/ | +| | | Distillate Fuel...............| 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11| | Residual Fuel.................| 1.23 1.16 0.90 0.95 0.92 0.86 0.88 0.91 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.92 0.91 0.85 0.81| | Natural Gas...................| 2.88 2.87 3.01 3.27 3.40 3.68 3.89 4.05 4.14 4.18 4.36 4.57 4.72 4.85 4.98 5.24 5.36 5.48 5.39 5.14 5.10| | Steam Coal 13/................|16.10 16.02 16.31 16.70 16.86 16.99 17.12 17.23 17.33 17.36 17.49 17.55 17.64 17.88 18.10 18.05 18.17 18.43 19.02 19.54 19.93| | Nuclear Power.................| 6.20 6.58 6.64 6.65 6.87 6.96 6.95 7.02 7.09 7.20 7.21 7.23 7.31 7.31 7.30 7.30 7.29 7.13 6.87 6.69 6.57| | Renewable Energy/Other 14/....| 3.64 3.73 3.73 3.77 3.81 3.86 3.91 3.98 4.05 4.14 4.23 4.29 4.36 4.42 4.48 4.55 4.66 4.77 4.92 5.06 5.21| | Total.......................|30.07 30.39 30.62 31.37 31.92 32.41 32.79 33.25 33.63 33.86 34.30 34.66 35.06 35.54 35.97 36.24 36.54 36.87 37.24 37.39 37.74| | | +| | | Primary Energy Consumption | +| | | Distillate Fuel...............| 6.36 6.55 6.75 6.97 7.17 7.28 7.35 7.43 7.49 7.59 7.72 7.83 7.94 8.09 8.22 8.31 8.43 8.57 8.68 8.75 8.86| | Kerosene......................| 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07| | Jet Fuel......................| 3.13 3.18 3.23 3.27 3.33 3.35 3.40 3.48 3.56 3.63 3.72 3.79 3.87 3.94 4.01 4.08 4.16 4.24 4.31 4.37 4.44| | Liquefied Petroleum Gas.......| 2.09 2.24 2.20 2.22 2.26 2.30 2.33 2.38 2.41 2.45 2.49 2.53 2.57 2.63 2.69 2.74 2.79 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00| | Motor Gasoline................|13.87 13.85 14.01 14.29 14.49 14.69 14.78 14.92 15.05 15.20 15.37 15.49 15.61 15.71 15.77 15.86 15.93 15.98 16.03 16.08 16.14| | Petrochemical Feedstocks......| 1.10 1.13 1.12 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.41 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.56 1.59| | Residual Fuel.................| 2.91 2.77 2.58 2.79 2.83 2.72 2.76 2.84 2.89 2.92 2.94 2.94 2.99 3.02 3.07 3.12 3.12 3.13 3.15 3.11 3.11| | Other Petroleum 15/...........| 4.02 3.71 3.66 4.19 4.25 4.37 4.51 4.52 4.53 4.53 4.59 4.58 4.59 4.62 4.64 4.65 4.71 4.75 4.76 4.80 4.79| | Natural Gas...................|19.31 19.61 20.00 20.48 20.83 21.28 21.64 21.85 22.08 22.27 22.67 23.06 23.32 23.66 23.93 24.31 24.56 24.84 24.88 24.76 24.89| | Metallurgical Coal............| 1.04 0.91 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57| | Steam Coal....................|17.96 17.86 18.06 18.54 18.73 18.92 19.05 19.19 19.33 19.45 19.54 19.64 19.78 20.06 20.32 20.29 20.43 20.74 21.36 21.89 22.31| | Net Coal Coke Imports.........| 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02| | Nuclear Power.................| 6.20 6.58 6.64 6.65 6.87 6.96 6.95 7.02 7.09 7.20 7.21 7.23 7.31 7.31 7.30 7.30 7.29 7.13 6.87 6.69 6.57| | Renewable Energy/Other 16/....| 6.22 6.29 6.36 6.49 6.61 6.71 6.81 6.93 7.04 7.17 7.32 7.44 7.55 7.67 7.79 7.92 8.08 8.26 8.47 8.66 8.87| | Total.......................|84.29 84.76 85.64 88.02 89.53 90.72 91.73 92.71 93.61 94.56 95.73 96.69 97.69 98.89 100.0 100.8 101.7 102.7 103.6 104.3 105.2| | | +| | | Elect. Consump. (all sectors)...| 9.30 9.42 9.49 9.70 9.87 9.99 10.11 10.25 10.37 10.48 10.62 10.74 10.87 11.01 11.13 11.25 11.37 11.50 11.62 11.71 11.84| | | +| | | Industrial Electricity | +| | | Gross Consumption.............| 3.59 3.58 3.63 3.77 3.89 3.94 3.98 4.05 4.11 4.18 4.26 4.33 4.40 4.49 4.58 4.64 4.70 4.78 4.86 4.92 4.99| | Self-generation - Own Use.....| 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.49| | Purchased Electricity.........| 3.23 3.23 3.27 3.39 3.50 3.55 3.58 3.65 3.70 3.77 3.84 3.90 3.96 4.05 4.13 4.18 4.24 4.32 4.38 4.44 4.50| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 3. Energy Prices by End-Use Sector and Source | | (1992 Dollars per Million Btu) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Residential.....................|13.09 12.72 12.29 12.43 12.50 12.73 12.97 13.12 13.25 13.42 13.60 13.82 14.02 14.16 14.38 14.61 14.81 15.15 15.46 15.73 15.92| | Primary Energy................| 6.67 6.40 6.38 6.64 6.70 6.83 6.97 7.09 7.19 7.25 7.32 7.41 7.55 7.65 7.78 7.94 8.04 8.23 8.41 8.51 8.63| | Petroleum Products..........| 9.27 8.65 7.69 7.93 7.79 7.83 7.92 8.02 8.21 8.34 8.51 8.73 8.90 9.09 9.27 9.40 9.55 9.71 9.86 10.02 10.14| | Distillate Fuel...........| 8.19 7.57 6.68 7.05 6.87 6.91 6.98 7.08 7.24 7.36 7.51 7.71 7.88 8.04 8.22 8.34 8.43 8.57 8.70 8.84 8.94| | Liquefied Petroleum Gas...|11.70 11.15 10.05 10.16 10.14 10.21 10.32 10.44 10.73 10.88 11.13 11.41 11.62 11.89 12.12 12.30 12.60 12.84 13.04 13.28 13.49| | Natural Gas.................| 6.01 5.82 6.06 6.34 6.45 6.61 6.76 6.90 6.97 7.01 7.05 7.12 7.24 7.32 7.44 7.62 7.71 7.90 8.10 8.18 8.30| | Electricity...................|24.98 24.64 23.77 23.85 23.95 24.24 24.57 24.68 24.80 25.07 25.39 25.74 25.96 26.12 26.42 26.66 26.96 27.44 27.90 28.35 28.58| | | +| | | Commercial......................|12.75 12.41 12.38 12.54 12.58 12.76 12.91 13.04 13.18 13.28 13.45 13.64 13.80 13.97 14.05 14.15 14.32 14.48 14.71 14.80 14.90| | Primary Energy................| 5.21 4.90 4.97 5.19 5.25 5.40 5.54 5.66 5.76 5.82 5.89 5.98 6.12 6.22 6.35 6.50 6.59 6.78 6.96 7.04 7.16| | Petroleum Products..........| 6.13 5.43 5.03 5.09 5.02 5.10 5.23 5.33 5.50 5.61 5.77 5.97 6.13 6.31 6.49 6.59 6.71 6.88 7.02 7.13 7.24| | Distillate Fuel...........| 5.99 5.26 4.76 4.81 4.62 4.65 4.72 4.81 4.96 5.08 5.22 5.42 5.58 5.74 5.91 6.02 6.12 6.26 6.39 6.53 6.63| | Residual Fuel.............| 3.66 2.79 2.62 2.89 2.85 2.99 3.11 3.22 3.37 3.41 3.56 3.69 3.84 4.03 4.14 4.23 4.34 4.52 4.67 4.62 4.72| | Natural Gas.................| 5.01 4.81 5.04 5.33 5.43 5.59 5.74 5.88 5.95 5.99 6.04 6.10 6.22 6.30 6.42 6.60 6.68 6.87 7.07 7.15 7.27| | Electricity...................|22.50 22.10 21.86 21.82 21.80 21.90 21.93 21.96 22.05 22.18 22.38 22.59 22.70 22.90 22.91 22.90 23.12 23.23 23.49 23.64 23.72| | | +| | | Industrial......................| 5.73 5.42 5.22 5.18 5.22 5.32 5.42 5.52 5.63 5.73 5.86 6.01 6.13 6.28 6.41 6.53 6.64 6.78 6.92 7.05 7.20| | Primary Energy................| 4.06 3.72 3.47 3.46 3.48 3.60 3.72 3.82 3.94 4.03 4.16 4.30 4.43 4.57 4.71 4.84 4.95 5.09 5.22 5.35 5.45| | Petroleum Products..........| 5.35 4.85 4.42 4.14 4.12 4.25 4.40 4.51 4.71 4.87 5.06 5.29 5.47 5.69 5.88 6.03 6.16 6.34 6.49 6.67 6.80| | Distillate Fuel...........| 6.02 5.18 4.88 4.75 4.57 4.60 4.68 4.79 4.92 5.06 5.20 5.40 5.55 5.72 5.90 6.00 6.11 6.26 6.39 6.53 6.65| | Liquefied Petroleum Gas...| 5.84 5.74 4.95 5.40 5.39 5.39 5.58 5.70 6.01 6.15 6.41 6.71 6.93 7.20 7.42 7.61 7.83 8.06 8.24 8.49 8.67| | Residual Fuel.............| 3.30 2.70 2.54 2.81 2.79 2.95 3.06 3.17 3.30 3.40 3.54 3.70 3.85 4.03 4.18 4.28 4.38 4.54 4.68 4.71 4.80| | Natural Gas 1/..............| 3.46 3.20 3.07 3.29 3.35 3.46 3.56 3.66 3.74 3.79 3.85 3.93 4.03 4.13 4.24 4.37 4.47 4.61 4.75 4.83 4.93| | Metallurgical Coal..........| 1.87 1.84 1.80 1.79 1.85 2.02 2.09 2.06 2.04 2.08 2.08 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.23 2.25 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.20| | Steam Coal..................| 1.64 1.61 1.56 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.66 1.64 1.65 1.71 1.70 1.74 1.73 1.76 1.78 1.80 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.92 1.91| | Electricity...................|15.22 14.95 14.87 14.82 14.80 14.84 14.82 14.82 14.84 14.92 15.03 15.15 15.19 15.30 15.31 15.32 15.42 15.50 15.62 15.75 16.11| | | +| | | Transportation..................| 8.92 8.23 7.87 7.52 7.89 8.06 8.39 8.48 8.67 8.79 8.98 9.19 9.32 9.49 9.70 9.80 9.88 10.05 10.20 10.35 10.42| | Primary Energy................| 8.90 8.22 7.85 7.50 7.87 8.04 8.37 8.46 8.65 8.77 8.96 9.16 9.30 9.46 9.68 9.77 9.85 10.02 10.16 10.32 10.38| | Petroleum Products..........| 8.90 8.22 7.85 7.50 7.87 8.04 8.37 8.46 8.64 8.76 8.95 9.16 9.30 9.46 9.67 9.77 9.84 10.02 10.16 10.31 10.37| | Distillate Fuel 2/........| 9.08 8.37 8.02 7.69 8.62 8.61 8.76 8.82 9.00 9.10 9.28 9.47 9.65 9.84 10.03 10.19 10.28 10.47 10.64 10.74 10.87| | Jet Fuel 3/...............| 6.08 4.99 4.52 4.24 4.23 4.30 4.76 4.92 5.08 5.21 5.38 5.57 5.74 5.93 6.08 6.20 6.30 6.48 6.65 6.80 6.91| | Motor Gasoline 4/.........|10.00 9.40 9.09 8.64 8.98 9.23 9.62 9.73 9.94 10.08 10.30 10.53 10.66 10.83 11.09 11.17 11.24 11.43 11.57 11.76 11.79| | Residual Fuel.............| 3.19 2.92 2.14 2.62 2.53 2.63 2.72 2.85 2.96 3.09 3.23 3.37 3.51 3.64 3.82 3.90 4.03 4.16 4.28 4.41 4.52| | Natural Gas 5/..............| 4.12 4.17 5.13 6.03 6.89 7.86 8.97 9.07 9.28 9.40 9.61 9.83 9.96 10.11 10.36 10.45 10.52 10.71 10.86 11.04 11.08| | Electricity...................|15.03 14.90 14.86 14.73 14.82 14.90 14.98 15.04 15.11 15.21 15.33 15.40 15.43 15.46 15.48 15.49 15.51 15.55 15.61 15.69 15.78| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 3. Energy Prices by End-Use Sector and Source (Continued) | | (1992 Dollars per Million Btu) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Total End-Use Energy............| 8.85 8.42 8.12 7.98 8.14 8.29 8.50 8.60 8.74 8.85 9.01 9.19 9.33 9.47 9.64 9.77 9.88 10.07 10.24 10.40 10.52| | Primary Energy................| 8.52 8.07 7.80 7.64 7.82 7.96 8.16 8.26 8.41 8.51 8.67 8.85 8.98 9.12 9.28 9.40 9.50 9.67 9.82 9.97 10.07| | Electricity...................|20.77 20.47 20.05 20.01 19.98 20.12 20.23 20.25 20.31 20.45 20.63 20.83 20.93 21.04 21.11 21.16 21.34 21.52 21.76 21.98 22.19| | | +| | | Electric Utilities | +| | | Fossil Fuel Average...........| 1.80 1.68 1.62 1.69 1.70 1.77 1.83 1.86 1.87 1.92 1.96 2.04 2.09 2.13 2.17 2.21 2.28 2.34 2.38 2.41 2.45| | Petroleum Products..........| 3.54 2.68 2.56 2.85 2.84 2.98 3.08 3.20 3.34 3.42 3.58 3.79 3.94 4.15 4.32 4.39 4.49 4.68 4.82 4.84 4.94| | Distillate Fuel...........| 5.37 4.78 4.52 4.43 4.25 4.27 4.31 4.41 4.56 4.68 4.84 5.03 5.19 5.37 5.56 5.67 5.76 5.90 6.07 6.21 6.31| | Residual Fuel.............| 3.50 2.63 2.51 2.78 2.76 2.90 3.02 3.12 3.26 3.33 3.48 3.67 3.82 3.99 4.13 4.22 4.33 4.51 4.64 4.65 4.75| | Natural Gas.................| 2.43 2.26 2.19 2.44 2.48 2.57 2.66 2.70 2.79 2.84 2.92 3.04 3.16 3.25 3.36 3.51 3.60 3.77 3.91 3.97 4.08| | Steam Coal..................| 1.56 1.50 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.53 1.57 1.58 1.57 1.61 1.63 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.70 1.76 1.79 1.81 1.88 1.92| | | +| | | Average Price to All Users 6/ | +| | | Petroleum Products............| 7.83 7.23 6.88 6.56 6.80 6.95 7.21 7.30 7.49 7.62 7.81 8.03 8.18 8.35 8.55 8.66 8.76 8.94 9.08 9.24 9.33| | Distillate Fuel 2/..........| 8.14 7.46 7.04 6.87 7.38 7.39 7.51 7.59 7.75 7.87 8.04 8.23 8.41 8.59 8.77 8.93 9.03 9.22 9.38 9.50 9.64| | Jet Fuel....................| 6.08 4.99 4.52 4.24 4.23 4.30 4.76 4.92 5.08 5.21 5.38 5.57 5.74 5.93 6.08 6.20 6.30 6.48 6.65 6.80 6.91| | Liquefied Petroleum Gas.....| 7.05 6.83 6.02 6.42 6.40 6.40 6.57 6.68 6.99 7.13 7.37 7.64 7.86 8.13 8.35 8.56 8.82 9.06 9.25 9.50 9.69| | Motor Gasoline 4/...........|10.00 9.40 9.09 8.64 8.98 9.23 9.62 9.73 9.94 10.08 10.30 10.53 10.66 10.83 11.09 11.17 11.24 11.43 11.57 11.76 11.79| | Residual Fuel...............| 3.37 2.76 2.37 2.73 2.68 2.80 2.90 3.02 3.14 3.24 3.38 3.54 3.68 3.83 3.99 4.08 4.19 4.34 4.47 4.53 4.64| | Natural Gas...................| 4.19 3.99 4.02 4.27 4.33 4.43 4.53 4.62 4.69 4.74 4.77 4.84 4.94 5.01 5.12 5.26 5.34 5.51 5.68 5.78 5.89| | Coal..........................| 1.57 1.52 1.47 1.49 1.50 1.54 1.59 1.59 1.58 1.63 1.64 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.73 1.71 1.77 1.80 1.82 1.89 1.92| | Electricity...................|20.77 20.47 20.05 20.01 19.98 20.12 20.23 20.25 20.31 20.45 20.63 20.83 20.93 21.04 21.11 21.16 21.34 21.52 21.76 21.98 22.19| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 4. Electricity Supply, Disposition, and Prices | | (Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Electric Utilities | +| | | Generation by Fuel Type | +| | | Coal..........................| 1560 1551 1577 1613 1626 1637 1646 1655 1665 1672 1687 1694 1702 1725 1745 1741 1749 1766 1813 1855 1886| | Petroleum.....................| 117 111 80 84 83 77 78 82 85 84 85 84 86 89 91 90 88 85 84 78 74| | Natural Gas...................| 264 264 254 278 286 303 320 330 327 326 335 353 363 375 378 392 390 400 391 380 373| | Nuclear Power.................| 577 613 618 620 640 648 647 653 660 670 671 673 681 681 680 680 679 664 639 623 612| | Pumped Storage/Other 1/.......| -2 -4 -9 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11| | Renewable Sources 2/..........| 292 289 300 300 301 302 303 304 304 305 305 306 307 307 308 309 310 313 317 321 326| | Total.......................| 2808 2825 2820 2886 2927 2957 2985 3012 3031 3046 3072 3100 3128 3166 3191 3201 3204 3218 3235 3245 3260| | | +| | | Nonutilities (excluding cogen.) 3/| +| | | Generation by Fuel Type | +| | | Coal..........................| 1 1 2 2 3 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 14 24 33 44 54| | Petroleum/Other 4/............| 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0| | Natural Gas...................| 9 14 21 19 23 31 34 42 56 64 72 76 82 86 99 119 141 150 151 141 144| | Renewable Sources 2/..........| 29 33 34 37 38 40 42 47 53 61 69 74 79 84 89 95 103 110 120 129 139| | Total.......................| 39 49 57 58 65 77 85 99 119 134 151 160 171 180 198 224 258 285 305 315 338| | | +| | | Cogeneration 5/ | +| | | Sales to Utilities ...........| 77 90 86 81 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 87 87 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92| | Generation for Own Use .......| 101 109 105 111 114 115 117 118 120 122 124 126 127 130 132 134 135 137 139 141 143| | | +| | | Net Imports.....................| 2 22 28 31 31 31 30 30 30 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 30 30| | | +| | | Electricity Sales by Sector | +| | | Residential.....................| 924 942 939 952 958 964 971 978 983 989 995 1001 1007 1012 1017 1024 1031 1039 1046 1055 1065| | Commercial......................| 839 854 866 880 889 905 921 934 948 954 967 977 989 999 1002 1009 1016 1020 1026 1024 1030| | Industrial......................| 946 947 959 993 1025 1039 1050 1070 1084 1104 1126 1143 1161 1186 1209 1226 1243 1265 1284 1300 1318| | Transportation..................| 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 22 23 24 25 26 28 32 35 39 43 46 50 53 56| | Total.........................| 2726 2760 2782 2843 2891 2928 2962 3004 3039 3071 3112 3148 3185 3228 3263 3298 3332 3371 3406 3433 3469| | | +| | | End-Use Prices (1992 cents/kwh) 6/| +| | | Residential.....................| 8.5 8.4 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8| | Commercial......................| 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.1| | Industrial......................| 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5| | Transportation..................| 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4| | All Sectors Average...........| 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6| | | +| | | Price Components(1992 cents/kwh)6/| +| | | Capital Component...............| 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7| | Fuel Component..................| 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7| | O&M Component...................| 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6| | Wholesale Power Cost............| 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6| | Total.........................| 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 5. Electricity Generating Capability | | (Thousand Megawatts) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Summer Capability 1/ |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Electric Utilities | +| | | Capability | +| | | Coal Steam....................|299.5 298.4 298.7 298.2 298.1 296.8 297.0 295.5 295.5 296.3 297.2 297.1 297.9 297.9 298.6 299.2 299.2 300.2 305.1 310.9 317.1| | Other Fossil Steam 2/.........|143.9 141.9 142.5 140.5 137.2 135.7 134.3 133.4 132.9 131.6 129.7 128.6 127.4 126.7 125.2 123.5 122.5 121.9 121.4 120.8 120.4| | Combined Cycle................| 7.2 7.3 7.8 9.4 10.2 11.5 12.4 13.6 15.5 16.5 17.6 20.9 23.3 24.9 25.8 28.4 29.5 32.8 33.2 35.0 35.0| | Combustion Turbine/Diesel.....| 45.6 47.2 47.9 48.9 50.3 53.1 55.2 57.5 59.6 61.9 64.4 66.2 67.9 69.2 70.0 70.4 71.5 72.7 73.4 73.6 73.9| | Nuclear Power.................| 99.6 99.6 99.0 99.0 100.3 100.3 100.3 101.4 101.4 102.6 102.6 102.6 103.8 103.8 103.8 103.8 103.0 100.4 95.9 94.2 90.7| | Pumped Storage/Other 3/.......| 17.6 18.7 19.1 19.1 19.1 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2| | Renewable Sources 4/..........| 76.0 76.0 76.2 76.2 76.5 76.6 76.9 77.1 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.6 77.7 77.8 77.9 78.1 78.5 79.3 80.6 81.8 83.4| | Total.......................|689.4 689.0 691.2 691.2 691.7 693.9 696.3 698.6 702.3 706.4 709.2 713.2 718.1 720.4 721.5 723.5 724.4 727.4 729.8 736.4 740.7| | | +| | | Cumulative Planned Additions 5/ | +| | | Coal Steam....................| 0.00 0.79 1.29 1.29 1.85 2.24 3.56 3.56 4.44 6.27 8.30 8.72 9.89 10.55 12.20 13.35 13.95 13.95 15.51 16.00 16.25| | Other Fossil Steam 2/.........| 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.26 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64| | Combined Cycle................| 0.00 0.11 0.67 2.23 3.13 4.40 4.53 5.04 6.95 8.04 9.14 11.67 13.31 13.92 14.15 14.30 14.49 14.58 14.99 14.99 14.99| | Combustion Turbine/Diesel.....| 0.00 1.70 2.50 3.46 4.90 7.33 9.61 11.72 14.00 16.24 18.84 20.79 23.00 23.49 23.99 24.18 24.30 24.30 24.55 24.55 24.55| | Nuclear Power.................| 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 2.32 2.32 2.32 3.49 3.49 4.70 4.70 4.70 5.91 5.91 5.91 5.91 5.91 5.91 5.91 5.91 5.91| | Pumped Storage/Other 3/.......| 0.00 1.06 1.41 1.41 1.45 2.32 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56| | Renewable Sources 4/..........| 0.00 0.01 0.28 0.35 0.51 0.66 0.85 1.00 1.06 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14| | Total.......................| 0.00 3.68 7.10 10.83 15.13 20.25 24.30 28.52 33.94 40.46 46.20 51.21 57.45 59.21 61.60 63.08 63.99 64.08 66.29 66.78 67.03| | | +| | | Cumulative Unplanned Additions 5/| +| | | Coal Steam....................| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.58 5.37 11.31 17.79| | Other Fossil Steam 2/.........| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00| | Combined Cycle................| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 2.18 2.90 3.90 4.57 7.09 8.00 11.13 11.20 12.94 12.94| | Combustion Turbine/Diesel.....| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.37 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.67 2.47 2.68 3.70 4.88 5.37 5.54 5.93| | Nuclear Power.................| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00| | Pumped Storage/Other 3/.......| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00| | Renewable Sources 4/..........| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.29 0.37 0.42 0.54 0.65 0.75 0.88 1.30 2.06 3.42 4.60 6.22| | Total.......................| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 1.25 2.09 2.17 2.24 2.31 3.10 3.93 6.22 7.79 10.65 13.01 19.66 25.37 34.39 42.87| | | +| | | Cumulative Total Additions.......| 0.00 3.68 7.10 10.83 15.13 20.62 25.55 30.62 36.11 42.70 48.52 54.31 61.38 65.42 69.39 73.72 76.99 83.74 91.67 101.2 109.9| | | +| | | Cumulative Retirements...........| 1.20 5.25 6.46 10.22 14.30 17.59 20.18 23.02 24.85 27.29 30.34 32.22 34.39 36.10 39.07 41.38 43.79 47.54 53.02 55.93 60.43| | | +| | | Nonutilities (excludes cogen.) 6/ | +| | | Installed Capability 7/ | +| | | Coal Steam....................| 0.09 0.18 0.35 0.35 0.64 0.85 1.39 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.53 1.53 2.21 3.81 5.23 6.88 8.55| | Other Fossil Steam 2/.........| 0.23 0.31 0.40 0.52 0.56 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83| | Combined Cycle................| 1.27 1.99 2.88 3.11 3.80 4.38 4.38 5.28 7.00 8.38 9.47 9.61 10.23 11.20 12.63 15.93 19.10 21.40 23.19 23.19 23.19| | Combustion Turbine/Diesel.....| 0.90 1.02 1.48 1.48 1.57 2.38 3.42 4.53 4.66 5.14 5.50 6.14 7.01 7.09 7.84 9.34 10.96 11.43 11.84 12.63 12.85| | Nuclear Power.................| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00| | Pumped Storage/Other 8/.......| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00| | Renewable Sources 4/..........| 6.64 7.18 7.42 7.91 8.19 8.61 8.84 9.48 10.94 12.33 13.52 14.32 15.08 15.80 16.61 17.49 18.89 20.42 22.45 24.24 26.19| | Total.......................| 9.13 10.67 12.53 13.37 14.77 17.03 18.83 21.60 24.91 28.18 30.82 32.41 34.65 36.43 39.43 45.11 51.99 57.88 63.53 67.75 71.59| | | +| | | Cogenerators 9/..................|33.74 37.50 37.78 38.94 40.65 42.57 43.23 43.18 43.30 43.36 43.49 43.56 43.69 43.78 43.88 43.99 44.13 44.24 44.30 44.37 44.47| | | +| | | Cumulative Additions 7/..........| 0.00 5.30 7.44 9.44 12.55 16.72 19.19 21.92 25.34 28.68 31.45 33.10 35.47 37.35 40.44 46.24 53.25 59.25 64.97 69.25 73.20| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 6. Renewable Energy | | (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Electricity and Nonelectric |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Electricity | +| | | Capability (gigawatts) | +| | | Conventional Hydropower.......|74.64 74.64 74.93 75.03 75.34 75.47 75.67 75.80 76.69 77.50 77.53 77.54 77.55 77.56 77.58 77.59 77.60 77.62 77.62 77.62 77.62| | Geothermal 1/.................| 2.91 2.86 2.89 2.97 3.02 3.12 3.14 3.74 4.34 4.94 5.54 5.75 5.96 6.16 6.36 6.56 6.95 7.23 7.75 8.14 8.54| | Municipal Solid Waste.........| 1.89 2.35 2.44 2.62 2.76 3.01 3.14 3.17 3.20 3.24 3.38 3.53 3.70 3.82 3.97 4.14 4.30 4.46 4.61 4.77 4.92| | Biomass/Other Waste 2/........| 1.28 1.28 1.37 1.42 1.51 1.53 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 2.06 2.51 2.96 3.41 3.86 4.32 4.77 5.22 5.67 6.12 6.57| | Solar 3/......................| 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.44 0.51 0.59 0.66 0.73 0.78 0.83 0.88 0.93 0.98 1.05 1.12 1.19 1.26 1.33| | Wind 4/.......................| 1.55 1.63 1.65 1.75 1.75 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.84 1.98 2.72 4.05 6.26 8.14 10.65| | Cogenerators 5/...............| 6.48 6.58 6.76 6.98 7.22 7.40 7.59 7.75 7.87 8.02 8.19 8.34 8.49 8.68 8.86 9.00 9.15 9.33 9.51 9.66 9.83| | Total.......................|89.11 89.72 90.40 91.14 91.96 92.65 93.33 94.34 96.06 97.72 99.2 100.2 101.3 102.3 103.4 104.5 106.5 109.0 112.6 115.7 119.5| | | +| | | Generation (billion kilowatthrs)| +| | | Conventional Hydropower.......|284.9 282.4 292.4 293.0 294.0 294.7 295.6 296.1 298.0 301.1 301.5 301.6 301.7 301.8 301.9 301.9 302.0 302.2 302.2 302.2 302.3| | Geothermal 1/.................|15.86 16.00 17.59 17.63 18.12 18.66 18.91 23.26 27.51 31.76 36.01 37.45 38.97 40.38 41.79 43.19 45.96 47.96 51.57 54.36 57.15| | Municipal Solid Waste.........|10.96 13.02 12.48 13.79 14.53 15.71 16.99 17.17 17.42 17.70 18.74 19.90 21.14 22.10 23.19 24.46 25.70 26.92 28.00 29.19 30.32| | Biomass/Other Waste 2/........| 6.50 7.63 8.18 8.65 9.16 9.35 9.62 10.00 10.00 10.00 12.80 15.61 18.42 21.23 24.04 26.84 29.65 32.46 35.27 38.07 40.88| | Solar 3/......................| 0.70 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 1.12 1.43 1.74 2.05 2.35 2.55 2.75 2.96 3.16 3.36 3.65 3.94 4.23 4.52 4.81| | Wind 4/.......................| 2.38 2.72 2.79 2.85 2.90 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.92 2.92 2.92 3.10 3.55 5.85 9.88 16.37 21.90 29.09| | Cogenerators 5/...............|32.12 32.66 33.52 34.64 35.81 36.70 37.63 38.45 39.04 39.78 40.65 41.40 42.13 43.04 43.94 44.63 45.38 46.31 47.19 47.93 48.79| | Total.......................|353.4 355.3 367.7 371.4 375.3 378.8 382.8 389.3 396.6 405.3 414.9 421.4 428.0 434.4 441.1 448.0 458.2 469.7 484.9 498.2 513.3| | | +| | | Consumption Equivalent | +| | | Conventional Hydropower.......| 2.94 2.92 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.06 3.08 3.11 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12| | Geothermal 1/.................| 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.33 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.42 0.43 0.45 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.56 0.59| | Municipal Solid Waste.........| 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31| | Biomass/Other Waste 2/........| 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.28 0.31 0.34 0.36 0.39 0.42| | Solar 3/......................| 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05| | Wind 4/.......................| 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.17 0.23 0.30| | Cogenerators 5/...............| 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.50| | Total.......................| 3.65 3.67 3.80 3.84 3.88 3.91 3.96 4.02 4.10 4.19 4.29 4.36 4.42 4.49 4.56 4.63 4.74 4.85 5.01 5.15 5.30| | | +| | | Nonelectric Renewable Energy | +| | | Residential, Commercial, & Ind. | +| | | Geothermal....................| 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02| | Biofuels......................| 2.53 2.49 2.57 2.66 2.73 2.77 2.83 2.87 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.04 3.08 3.13 3.17 3.22 3.26 3.31 3.36 3.39 3.44| | Solar Thermal.................| 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04| | | +| | | Transportation | +| | | Ethanol.......................| 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13| | | +| | | Total...........................| 2.55 2.52 2.60 2.76 2.83 2.87 2.95 3.01 3.05 3.10 3.16 3.21 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.39 3.44 3.50 3.55 3.59 3.63| | | +| | | Total Renewable Energy............| 6.20 6.19 6.40 6.60 6.71 6.79 6.90 7.04 7.15 7.29 7.45 7.56 7.67 7.79 7.91 8.02 8.18 8.35 8.56 8.74 8.94| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 7. Macroeconomic Indicators | | (Billion 1987 Dollars, Unless Otherwise Noted) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Indicators |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | GDP Implicit Price Deflator | +| | | (index 1987=1.000)................|1.132 1.178 1.208 1.235 1.265 1.297 1.329 1.364 1.402 1.443 1.488 1.535 1.585 1.637 1.691 1.749 1.810 1.873 1.937 2.005 2.075| | | +| | | Real Gross Domestic Product.......| 4877 4821 4920 5072 5235 5354 5491 5630 5756 5896 6041 6178 6316 6468 6607 6736 6867 7017 7148 7267 7397| | Real Consumption..................| 3260 3241 3312 3408 3499 3581 3646 3706 3769 3832 3898 3961 4024 4093 4159 4226 4297 4375 4452 4525 4606| | Real Investment...................| 739 661 712 804 890 943 971 1014 1049 1096 1137 1170 1202 1245 1282 1308 1336 1378 1405 1422 1449| | Real Government Spending..........| 930 941 938 930 939 933 948 963 974 985 998 1010 1023 1037 1052 1068 1080 1093 1106 1118 1129| | | +| | | Real Exports......................| 510 539 571 596 622 658 709 761 811 864 922 984 1048 1117 1179 1234 1290 1352 1414 1473 1530| | Real Imports......................| 562 561 614 666 716 760 783 815 846 880 915 947 983 1025 1065 1100 1137 1181 1229 1271 1317| | | +| | | Real Disposable Personal Income...| 3517 3509 3584 3667 3766 3862 3926 3996 4062 4130 4202 4269 4336 4410 4484 4563 4642 4725 4804 4881 4970| | | +| | | Index of Manufacturing Gross | +| | | Output (index 1987=1.000)........|1.087 1.057 1.094 1.141 1.178 1.202 1.227 1.263 1.294 1.328 1.366 1.397 1.432 1.475 1.515 1.550 1.584 1.626 1.666 1.704 1.747| | | +| | | AA Utility Bond Rate (percent)....| 9.66 9.10 8.55 8.00 8.34 8.36 8.43 8.68 8.71 8.62 8.59 8.58 8.57 8.53 8.49 8.47 8.45 8.39 8.33 8.30 8.26| | | +| | | 90-Day U.S. Government | +| | | Treasury Bill Rate (percent)......| 7.49 5.38 3.43 3.20 4.07 3.98 4.24 4.73 4.72 4.69 4.69 4.70 4.71 4.72 4.70 4.67 4.63 4.60 4.55 4.51 4.49| | | +| | | Real Yield on Government 10 Year | +| | | Bonds (percent)...................| 4.91 3.93 3.61 3.98 4.99 4.96 4.65 4.79 4.69 4.52 4.41 4.29 4.21 4.15 4.06 4.01 3.96 3.91 3.82 3.74 3.71| | | +| | | Energy Intensity (thousand Btu | +| | | per 1987 dollar of GDP)...........|17.28 17.58 17.41 17.35 17.10 16.94 16.71 16.47 16.26 16.04 15.85 15.65 15.47 15.29 15.13 14.96 14.81 14.64 14.50 14.35 14.23| | | +| | | Consumer Price Index (1982=1.00)..| 1.31 1.36 1.40 1.44 1.49 1.54 1.59 1.64 1.70 1.76 1.83 1.90 1.97 2.04 2.12 2.20 2.29 2.37 2.46 2.56 2.65| | Employment Cost Index (1987=1.00).| 1.05 1.09 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.23 1.26 1.31 1.35 1.40 1.46 1.52 1.58 1.64 1.71 1.78 1.85 1.93 2.01 2.09 2.18| | | +| | | Unemployment Rate (percent).......| 5.52 6.75 7.40 7.00 6.29 5.90 5.79 5.63 5.69 5.69 5.66 5.69 5.73 5.66 5.63 5.69 5.78 5.76 5.76 5.87 5.92| | | +| | | Million Units | +| | | Truck Deliveries, Light-Duty....| 4.39 3.93 4.50 5.11 5.30 5.32 5.18 5.30 5.44 5.55 5.66 5.77 5.92 6.11 6.23 6.26 6.25 6.36 6.39 6.41 6.52| | Unit Sales of Automobiles.......| 9.51 8.39 8.35 9.06 9.42 9.29 9.54 9.73 9.78 9.78 9.77 9.76 9.78 9.85 9.99 10.12 10.24 10.48 10.50 10.42 10.38| | | +| | | U.S. Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate.| 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.89 0.90 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77| | | +| | | Millions of People | +| | | Pop. w/Armed Forces Overseas...|250.3 253.0 255.8 258.4 261.0 263.6 266.1 268.5 270.9 273.3 275.6 277.9 280.2 282.5 284.8 287.1 289.4 291.8 294.1 296.5 298.9| | Population (aged 16 and over)..|192.7 194.5 196.3 198.2 200.1 202.1 204.2 206.4 208.5 210.7 212.8 214.9 217.1 219.2 221.5 223.8 226.2 228.6 230.9 233.2 235.4| | Employment, Non-Agriculture....|109.8 108.3 108.4 109.6 112.2 114.9 117.2 119.3 121.0 122.7 124.5 126.2 127.8 129.6 131.3 132.8 134.2 135.8 137.2 138.4 139.6| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 8. Petroleum Supply and Disposition Balance | | (Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply and Disposition |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Production | +| | | Crude Oil 1/..................| 7.36 7.42 7.17 6.87 6.50 6.18 5.92 5.72 5.54 5.35 5.18 5.07 5.00 4.93 4.88 4.84 4.82 4.87 4.90 4.95 5.10| | Alaska......................| 1.77 1.80 1.71 1.47 1.30 1.16 1.10 1.06 1.03 0.96 0.87 0.81 0.76 0.71 0.65 0.60 0.54 0.58 0.59 0.62 0.74| | Lower 48 States.............| 5.58 5.62 5.46 5.40 5.20 5.02 4.83 4.66 4.51 4.39 4.31 4.26 4.23 4.22 4.23 4.25 4.28 4.29 4.31 4.33 4.35| | Natural Gas Plant Liquids.....| 1.56 1.66 1.70 1.71 1.71 1.72 1.75 1.76 1.78 1.79 1.82 1.86 1.88 1.91 1.92 1.94 1.95 1.97 1.96 1.94 1.95| | Total.......................| 8.91 9.07 8.87 8.58 8.21 7.90 7.67 7.48 7.32 7.14 7.01 6.93 6.88 6.84 6.80 6.78 6.76 6.84 6.87 6.89 7.05| | | +| | | Net Imports | +| | | Crude Oil (including SPR) 2/..| 5.78 5.67 5.99 6.53 6.98 7.26 7.64 7.86 8.05 8.23 8.49 8.57 8.70 8.84 8.87 9.00 9.11 9.09 9.09 9.03 8.92| | Refined Products 3/...........| 0.90 0.51 0.45 1.51 1.79 1.94 1.96 2.17 2.19 2.40 2.46 2.66 2.83 2.96 3.18 3.27 3.34 3.47 3.63 3.76 3.88| | Total.......................| 6.68 6.17 6.44 8.04 8.77 9.21 9.60 10.02 10.24 10.63 10.94 11.23 11.54 11.79 12.05 12.26 12.44 12.56 12.71 12.79 12.80| | | +| | | Other Inputs 4/.................| 0.49 0.51 0.58 0.54 0.50 0.53 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.71 0.69 0.65 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74| | Refinery Processing Gain 5/.....| 0.68 0.72 0.77 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.84 0.84| | SPR Fill Rate Additions(-) 2/...|-0.02 0.05 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02| | | +| | | Total Primary Supply 6/.........|16.75 16.53 16.64 17.94 18.27 18.42 18.64 18.87 18.94 19.15 19.41 19.60 19.83 20.09 20.30 20.51 20.71 20.91 21.10 21.24 21.41| | | +| | | Refined Petroleum Products Supp.| +| | | Motor Gasoline 7/.............| 7.23 7.19 7.27 7.45 7.56 7.66 7.71 7.78 7.85 7.93 8.02 8.08 8.14 8.19 8.23 8.27 8.31 8.33 8.36 8.39 8.42| | Jet Fuel 8/...................| 1.52 1.47 1.45 1.58 1.61 1.62 1.64 1.68 1.72 1.75 1.80 1.83 1.87 1.90 1.94 1.97 2.01 2.05 2.08 2.11 2.14| | Distillate Fuel...............| 3.02 2.92 2.98 3.28 3.37 3.42 3.46 3.49 3.52 3.57 3.63 3.68 3.73 3.81 3.86 3.91 3.96 4.03 4.08 4.12 4.17| | Residual Fuel.................| 1.23 1.16 1.09 1.22 1.23 1.19 1.20 1.24 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.37 1.36 1.36| | Other 9/......................| 3.98 3.97 4.24 4.14 4.22 4.31 4.41 4.46 4.50 4.54 4.61 4.65 4.69 4.77 4.84 4.89 4.96 5.04 5.10 5.17 5.21| | Total.......................|16.99 16.71 17.03 17.67 17.99 18.20 18.42 18.66 18.85 19.06 19.34 19.52 19.74 19.99 20.21 20.40 20.61 20.81 21.00 21.13 21.30| | | +| | | Refined Petroleum Products Supp.| +| | | Residential and Commercial....| 1.15 1.14 1.16 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.14 1.13 1.13| | Industrial 10/................| 4.32 4.25 4.33 4.54 4.65 4.72 4.83 4.89 4.92 4.98 5.06 5.10 5.15 5.23 5.30 5.35 5.43 5.50 5.57 5.63 5.69| | Transportation................|10.98 10.80 11.01 11.49 11.71 11.88 12.00 12.16 12.30 12.47 12.66 12.81 12.97 13.13 13.26 13.41 13.56 13.71 13.84 13.95 14.08| | Electric Utilities 11/........| 0.55 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.48 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.42 0.41| | Total.......................|16.99 16.71 17.03 17.67 17.99 18.20 18.42 18.66 18.85 19.06 19.34 19.52 19.74 19.99 20.21 20.40 20.61 20.81 21.00 21.13 21.30| | | +| | | Discrepancy 12/.................|-0.24 -0.18 -0.39 0.27 0.28 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.11| | | +| | | World Oil Price (1992 $/bbl) 13/|23.22 19.18 18.19 16.69 16.43 16.99 17.66 18.28 19.06 19.89 20.72 21.65 22.61 23.51 24.29 24.90 25.60 26.30 27.00 27.64 28.16| | Domestic Refinery Distill. Cap..| 15.6 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6| | Capacity Utilization Rate (%)...| 87.1 86.0 87.9 87.4 88.1 87.9 88.5 88.6 88.8 88.7 89.3 89.1 89.5 89.6 89.3 89.8 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.7 89.9| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 9. Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices | | (Trillion Cubic Feet per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Production | +| | | Dry Gas Production 1/.........|17.81 17.69 17.54 17.71 17.68 17.84 18.12 18.25 18.43 18.58 18.93 19.28 19.51 19.80 19.92 20.13 20.18 20.38 20.35 20.16 20.19| | Supplemental Natural Gas 2/...| 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.07| | | +| | | Net Imports.....................| 1.45 1.64 1.73 2.02 2.40 2.66 2.74 2.81 2.85 2.89 2.93 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.16 3.31 3.50 3.57 3.63 3.74 3.85| | Canada........................| 1.43 1.69 1.83 2.08 2.40 2.60 2.62 2.63 2.65 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.69 2.72 2.74 2.76 2.79 2.82 2.86 2.89 2.92| | Mexico........................|-0.02 -0.06 -0.09 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.17| | LNG...........................| 0.03 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.08 0.14 0.20 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.43 0.55 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.71 0.75| | | +| | | Total Supply....................|19.38 19.45 19.38 19.84 20.19 20.62 20.97 21.17 21.40 21.58 21.97 22.34 22.60 22.92 23.19 23.56 23.80 24.07 24.11 23.99 24.11| | | +| | | Consumption by Sector | +| | | Residential...................| 4.39 4.56 4.68 4.84 4.87 4.86 4.86 4.85 4.86 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.84 4.84 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.84 4.85| | Commercial....................| 2.62 2.68 2.70 2.72 2.73 2.75 2.75 2.76 2.77 2.79 2.80 2.81 2.82 2.83 2.84 2.85 2.87 2.88 2.89 2.91 2.93| | Industrial 3/.................| 7.02 7.26 7.27 7.29 7.43 7.56 7.64 7.65 7.74 7.86 8.01 8.13 8.20 8.34 8.45 8.52 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.88 9.00| | Electric Utilities 4/.........| 2.79 2.78 2.91 3.16 3.29 3.56 3.76 3.92 4.01 4.04 4.22 4.42 4.57 4.69 4.82 5.06 5.18 5.30 5.21 4.97 4.93| | Lease and Plant Fuel 5/.......| 1.24 1.15 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.38| | Pipeline Fuel.................| 0.66 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.70| | Transportation 6/.............| 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.24 0.27 0.29 0.32 0.34 0.35| | Total.......................|18.73 19.02 19.40 19.87 20.21 20.64 20.99 21.20 21.42 21.60 21.99 22.37 22.63 22.95 23.22 23.58 23.82 24.09 24.13 24.02 24.14| | | +| | | Discrepancy 7/..................| 0.64 0.42 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03| | | +| | | Average Wellhead Price (1992 $ | +| | | per thousand cubic feet) 8/....| 1.85 1.69 1.83 1.94 2.03 2.11 2.19 2.29 2.35 2.39 2.42 2.47 2.55 2.65 2.75 2.89 3.01 3.17 3.30 3.35 3.47| | | +| | | Delivered Prices (1992 dollars | +| | | per thousand cubic feet) | +| | | Residential..................| 6.19 5.99 6.24 6.53 6.64 6.81 6.96 7.10 7.18 7.22 7.26 7.33 7.46 7.54 7.66 7.85 7.94 8.14 8.34 8.43 8.55| | Commercial...................| 5.16 4.96 5.19 5.49 5.59 5.76 5.92 6.06 6.13 6.17 6.22 6.29 6.41 6.49 6.61 6.80 6.88 7.08 7.28 7.36 7.49| | Industrial 9/................| 3.57 3.29 3.17 3.39 3.45 3.56 3.67 3.77 3.85 3.91 3.96 4.05 4.16 4.25 4.36 4.50 4.60 4.75 4.89 4.97 5.08| | Electric Utilities...........| 2.52 2.34 2.27 2.53 2.57 2.66 2.75 2.80 2.89 2.94 3.02 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.48 3.63 3.72 3.89 4.05 4.11 4.22| | Transportation...............| 4.25 4.30 5.29 6.22 7.09 8.10 9.24 9.35 9.56 9.68 9.90 10.12 10.25 10.41 10.67 10.76 10.83 11.03 11.18 11.37 11.41| | Average 10/...............| 4.32 4.11 4.15 4.40 4.46 4.56 4.67 4.77 4.84 4.88 4.92 4.99 5.09 5.17 5.28 5.42 5.51 5.68 5.85 5.95 6.07| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M Phase I NEMS -- Software Test Platform -- Results for Testing Linkages Only + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | Table 10. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices | | (Million Short Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995 |1996 |1997 |1998 |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 | |___________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | +| | | Production 1/ | +| | | East of the Mississippi.......| 630 591 596 594 610 619 620 624 632 630 630 627 626 632 638 630 643 645 639 644 650| | West of the Mississippi.......| 399 405 402 405 411 422 430 432 434 443 451 460 472 475 484 491 485 498 534 558 573| | Total.......................| 1029 996 998 999 1021 1041 1051 1056 1066 1073 1081 1087 1098 1107 1122 1121 1128 1143 1173 1201 1223| | | +| | | Net Imports | +| | | Imports........................| 3 3 4 4 5 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11| | Exports........................| 106 109 104 83 98 114 118 121 125 129 133 135 137 139 142 144 145 147 149 151 152| | Total.........................| -103 -106 -100 -79 -93 -108 -110 -113 -117 -120 -123 -125 -128 -129 -132 -134 -135 -137 -139 -140 -142| | | +| | | Total Supply 2/.................| 926 890 898 920 928 933 940 943 949 953 958 962 971 978 990 987 993 1006 1034 1061 1081| | | +| | | Consumption by Sector | +| | | Residential and Commercial....| 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5| | Industrial 3/.................| 76 75 72 77 78 81 81 83 84 89 87 89 91 92 94 94 96 98 99 100 101| | Coke Plants...................| 39 34 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 25 24 24 23 22 22 21| | Electric Utilities 4/.........| 774 772 787 803 811 814 820 824 828 830 837 840 843 854 865 862 867 879 908 934 950| | Total.......................| 895 888 900 920 928 933 938 943 948 953 958 962 967 978 990 987 992 1006 1035 1061 1079| | | +| | | Discrepancy and Stock Change 5/| 31 3 -2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 3| | | +| | | Average Minemouth Price 6/ | +| | | (1992 dollars per short ton)...|23.22 22.04 21.39 21.75 22.06 23.46 24.50 24.41 24.17 25.05 25.29 26.04 26.58 26.79 27.15 27.00 28.50 28.98 28.95 30.27 30.87| | | +| | | Average Price to All Users | +| | | (1992 dollars per million Btu).| 1.58 1.52 1.47 1.49 1.50 1.54 1.59 1.59 1.58 1.63 1.64 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.73 1.71 1.77 1.80 1.82 1.89 1.92| | | +| | | Deliv. Prices (1992$ /short ton)| +| | | Industrial....................|35.85 36.13 34.50 34.46 34.95 35.04 36.44 35.92 36.41 37.68 37.43 38.38 37.94 38.82 39.33 40.37 40.62 40.83 41.18 42.51 42.30| | Coke Plants...................|50.93 49.25 48.30 48.06 49.70 54.04 56.07 55.25 54.68 55.80 55.81 57.23 58.20 59.03 59.63 60.38 60.18 59.95 59.71 59.50 58.91| | Electric Utilities............|32.46 31.22 30.21 30.64 30.80 31.96 32.88 33.04 32.85 33.75 34.11 35.15 35.46 35.61 35.90 35.52 36.88 37.48 37.89 39.40 40.32| | Average 7/..................|33.59 32.33 31.26 31.60 31.82 32.99 33.96 34.01 33.85 34.78 35.05 36.08 36.32 36.54 36.83 36.60 37.81 38.33 38.69 40.11 40.88| | Exports 8/....................|45.49 45.95 44.44 44.52 45.87 49.78 52.65 50.36 50.00 51.14 50.96 52.01 52.77 53.65 54.03 54.71 56.43 56.95 55.59 56.20 55.95| + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | AEO94B.D1221934 ....92MDPRC;............ | + _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M