1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Production + Crude Oil & Lease Condensate.|13.29 13.06 12.88 12.71 12.58 12.44 12.32 12.21 12.10 11.99 11.89 11.79 11.69 11.57 11.45 11.25 11.09 10.94 10.79 10.65 10.55 10.43 Natural Gas Plant Liquids....| 2.39 2.39 2.43 2.47 2.53 2.58 2.63 2.68 2.75 2.82 2.88 2.95 2.98 3.02 3.07 3.08 3.12 3.14 3.21 3.23 3.27 3.29 Dry Natural Gas..............|20.92 20.84 21.18 21.53 22.04 22.42 22.88 23.29 23.83 24.41 24.91 25.39 25.67 26.05 26.42 26.57 26.85 27.04 27.57 27.76 28.02 28.21 Coal.........................|23.94 24.34 24.90 24.99 25.14 25.31 25.62 25.97 26.16 26.38 26.47 26.62 26.94 27.04 27.20 27.50 27.73 27.93 28.08 28.37 28.51 28.59 Nuclear Power................| 7.35 7.36 7.26 7.31 7.16 7.03 6.87 6.77 6.68 6.54 6.45 6.36 6.24 6.14 5.91 5.55 5.12 4.93 4.49 4.25 4.13 4.09 Renewable Energy ............| 6.72 6.82 6.87 6.90 6.96 7.02 7.12 7.18 7.23 7.30 7.35 7.41 7.44 7.51 7.49 7.52 7.59 7.60 7.64 7.68 7.68 7.71 Other .......................| .52 .56 .55 .54 .54 .53 .55 .54 .55 .55 .52 .48 .48 .46 .48 .48 .47 .47 .48 .46 .47 .47 Total....................|75.14 75.37 76.07 76.45 76.95 77.33 77.98 78.65 79.30 79.99 80.46 81.00 81.43 81.80 82.01 81.96 81.97 82.04 82.25 82.41 82.61 82.77 + Imports + Crude Oil ...................|18.67 19.18 19.59 20.55 20.80 21.61 22.01 22.39 22.61 22.77 22.90 23.17 23.35 23.54 23.83 24.11 24.36 24.63 24.84 25.03 25.17 25.30 Petroleum Products ..........| 4.39 4.25 4.65 4.78 4.99 5.17 5.47 5.89 6.16 6.62 7.39 7.61 7.82 8.51 8.23 8.65 9.01 9.00 9.39 9.67 9.94 10.09 Natural Gas .................| 3.88 4.20 4.23 4.26 4.30 4.34 4.39 4.43 4.48 4.54 4.60 4.66 4.73 4.81 4.90 4.97 5.04 5.11 5.17 5.23 5.28 5.34 Other Imports ...............| .59 .62 .62 .63 .60 .60 .58 .58 .59 .57 .58 .57 .56 .56 .55 .54 .54 .55 .55 .55 .55 .56 Total....................|27.53 28.26 29.09 30.22 30.69 31.72 32.45 33.29 33.84 34.51 35.47 36.02 36.45 37.41 37.50 38.27 38.96 39.29 39.95 40.48 40.94 41.28 + Exports + Petroleum ...................| 1.65 1.71 1.59 1.64 1.66 1.70 1.73 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.79 1.80 1.67 1.85 1.74 1.84 1.89 1.77 1.86 1.84 1.82 1.67 Natural Gas..................| .27 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .30 .30 .30 .31 .31 .32 Coal.........................| 2.35 2.41 2.47 2.55 2.58 2.61 2.64 2.68 2.71 2.75 2.79 2.84 2.89 2.90 2.94 2.98 3.03 3.06 3.10 3.14 3.19 3.23 Total....................| 4.27 4.39 4.34 4.46 4.51 4.59 4.65 4.72 4.77 4.79 4.87 4.93 4.85 5.04 4.97 5.12 5.21 5.13 5.26 5.29 5.33 5.23 + Discrepancy ....................| .21 .58 .44 .19 .26 -.01 .04 .05 .21 .18 .01 .08 .06 -.03 .14 .06 .00 .06 -.08 -.12 -.14 -.25 + Consumption + Petroleum Products ..........|37.85 38.35 38.97 39.62 40.08 40.66 41.32 42.06 42.59 43.20 43.83 44.33 44.73 45.25 45.49 45.82 46.20 46.50 46.77 47.10 47.42 47.64 Natural Gas..................|24.51 24.74 25.12 25.49 26.03 26.43 26.93 27.38 27.96 28.60 29.12 29.63 29.96 30.42 30.88 31.09 31.44 31.68 32.27 32.51 32.82 33.06 Coal.........................|21.80 22.14 22.63 22.66 22.79 22.93 23.21 23.48 23.72 23.85 23.92 24.03 24.31 24.39 24.49 24.78 24.95 25.11 25.24 25.48 25.58 25.61 Nuclear Power................| 7.35 7.36 7.26 7.31 7.16 7.03 6.87 6.77 6.68 6.54 6.45 6.36 6.24 6.14 5.91 5.55 5.12 4.93 4.49 4.25 4.13 4.09 Renewable Energy ............| 6.72 6.82 6.88 6.90 6.96 7.02 7.12 7.19 7.24 7.31 7.36 7.42 7.46 7.53 7.52 7.55 7.62 7.63 7.67 7.71 7.71 7.74 Other .......................| .39 .41 .40 .41 .37 .38 .37 .38 .39 .38 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .41 .42 .42 .43 .43 Total......................|98.61 99.8 101.3 102.4 103.4 104.5 105.8 107.3 108.6 109.9 111.1 112.2 113.1 114.1 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.3 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.6 + Net Imports - Petroleum.........|21.41 21.72 22.65 23.69 24.14 25.08 25.75 26.51 27.01 27.64 28.50 28.99 29.49 30.20 30.32 30.93 31.48 31.85 32.37 32.86 33.28 33.71 + Prices (1996 dollars per unit) + World Oil Price ($ per bbl) ...|18.57 19.11 19.36 19.51 19.79 19.99 20.19 20.22 20.37 20.52 20.66 20.81 20.95 21.10 21.23 21.35 21.48 21.62 21.78 21.94 22.11 22.32 Gas Wellhead Price($ / Mcf)...| 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.21 2.24 2.27 2.31 2.32 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.45 2.48 2.54 Coal Minemouth Price ($ / ton).|17.48 17.45 16.99 16.77 16.61 16.42 16.18 15.81 15.62 15.47 15.08 15.05 14.71 14.49 14.42 14.22 13.99 13.92 13.81 13.67 13.44 13.27 Aver. Electricity (cents / Kwh)| 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Energy Consumption + + Residential + Distillate Fuel..............| .86 .85 .83 .82 .81 .81 .79 .79 .78 .78 .77 .77 .76 .76 .75 .75 .74 .74 .74 .73 .73 .72 Kerosene.....................| .08 .08 .08 .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| .45 .45 .46 .46 .46 .47 .47 .47 .48 .48 .48 .49 .49 .50 .50 .50 .50 .51 .51 .51 .51 .51 Petroleum Subtotal.........| 1.38 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.30 Natural Gas..................| 5.30 5.35 5.35 5.38 5.41 5.45 5.47 5.50 5.53 5.58 5.59 5.63 5.66 5.72 5.75 5.79 5.82 5.87 5.87 5.90 5.93 5.97 Coal.........................| .06 .06 .06 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 Renewable Energy ............| .61 .61 .61 .61 .62 .62 .62 .62 .62 .63 .62 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .64 .64 .64 .64 .64 .64 Electricity..................| 3.84 3.97 4.08 4.13 4.18 4.24 4.29 4.35 4.41 4.49 4.54 4.61 4.68 4.76 4.82 4.88 4.94 5.02 5.07 5.14 5.20 5.28 Delivered Energy...........|11.20 11.36 11.46 11.53 11.61 11.72 11.77 11.86 11.94 12.08 12.14 12.25 12.35 12.51 12.58 12.68 12.77 12.90 12.95 13.04 13.13 13.25 Electricity Related Losses...| 8.54 8.75 8.95 8.97 8.99 8.97 9.05 9.12 9.20 9.28 9.33 9.39 9.45 9.54 9.55 9.57 9.58 9.65 9.68 9.76 9.83 9.93 Total......................|19.74 20.11 20.40 20.50 20.60 20.69 20.81 20.98 21.14 21.36 21.47 21.64 21.80 22.05 22.12 22.25 22.35 22.55 22.63 22.79 22.95 23.17 + Commercial + Distillate Fuel..............| .41 .41 .41 .41 .41 .41 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .39 .39 .39 .39 .39 .38 .38 .38 .37 Residual Fuel................| .11 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 Kerosene.....................| .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 Motor Gasoline ..............| .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 Petroleum Subtotal.........| .65 .65 .65 .66 .66 .66 .65 .66 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .64 .64 .64 .63 Natural Gas..................| 3.44 3.47 3.49 3.52 3.56 3.59 3.62 3.65 3.67 3.70 3.72 3.75 3.77 3.80 3.82 3.84 3.85 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.85 Coal.........................| .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 Renewable Energy ............| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Electricity..................| 3.54 3.59 3.64 3.69 3.73 3.79 3.84 3.89 3.94 3.99 4.04 4.09 4.15 4.20 4.24 4.29 4.33 4.36 4.39 4.41 4.43 4.45 Delivered Energy...........| 7.72 7.80 7.88 7.96 8.04 8.12 8.21 8.29 8.36 8.44 8.52 8.60 8.67 8.75 8.82 8.87 8.92 8.97 9.00 9.02 9.03 9.04 Electricity Related Losses...| 7.87 7.91 7.99 8.01 8.03 8.01 8.09 8.15 8.22 8.26 8.31 8.35 8.37 8.41 8.41 8.40 8.39 8.37 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.37 Total......................|15.59 15.72 15.87 15.96 16.06 16.13 16.30 16.44 16.58 16.70 16.83 16.94 17.05 17.16 17.23 17.28 17.31 17.34 17.38 17.41 17.41 17.41 + Industrial .. + Distillate Fuel..............| 1.19 1.21 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.56 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| 2.11 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 2.25 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.37 2.40 2.42 2.43 2.44 2.44 2.45 2.45 2.46 2.46 2.47 2.47 Petrochemical Feedstocks.....| 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.51 Residual Fuel................| .35 .35 .35 .34 .34 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .36 .35 .35 .34 .34 .36 .35 .35 .34 .35 Motor Gasoline ..............| .20 .20 .21 .21 .22 .22 .23 .23 .24 .24 .24 .25 .25 .25 .25 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 .27 .27 Other Petroleum .............| 4.32 4.35 4.37 4.45 4.48 4.53 4.60 4.69 4.71 4.77 4.82 4.84 4.84 4.97 4.94 4.98 5.05 5.07 5.04 5.09 5.14 5.10 Petroleum Subtotal.........| 9.46 9.55 9.66 9.80 9.88 10.00 10.15 10.33 10.42 10.54 10.67 10.75 10.82 10.98 10.96 11.01 11.10 11.16 11.14 11.20 11.27 11.25 Natural Gas .................|10.89 10.94 10.94 10.99 11.01 11.05 11.16 11.26 11.39 11.48 11.57 11.67 11.74 11.74 11.81 11.79 11.77 11.75 11.83 11.81 11.82 11.80 Metallurgical Coal...........| .85 .83 .82 .80 .78 .77 .76 .75 .74 .73 .72 .71 .70 .69 .67 .66 .65 .65 .64 .63 .62 .61 Steam Coal...................| 1.55 1.56 1.60 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.79 Net Coal Coke Imports........| .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 Coal Subtotal..............| 2.43 2.42 2.45 2.47 2.48 2.50 2.51 2.52 2.53 2.53 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.53 2.52 2.51 2.50 2.50 2.49 2.49 2.48 Renewable Energy ............| 1.93 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.04 2.07 2.11 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.22 2.25 2.27 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.34 2.34 Electricity..................| 3.65 3.69 3.78 3.85 3.90 3.98 4.05 4.12 4.20 4.26 4.32 4.37 4.45 4.50 4.53 4.55 4.58 4.61 4.65 4.68 4.72 4.75 Delivered Energy...........|28.36 28.57 28.80 29.13 29.32 29.61 29.97 30.36 30.69 31.02 31.33 31.58 31.81 32.04 32.13 32.18 32.27 32.33 32.44 32.51 32.63 32.62 Electricity Related Losses...| 8.12 8.14 8.29 8.35 8.38 8.41 8.53 8.63 8.75 8.81 8.88 8.92 8.98 9.01 8.98 8.92 8.88 8.85 8.87 8.89 8.93 8.93 Total......................|36.48 36.71 37.09 37.48 37.70 38.02 38.50 38.99 39.44 39.83 40.21 40.50 40.79 41.05 41.11 41.10 41.15 41.17 41.30 41.40 41.56 41.55 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Transportation + Distillate Fuel .............| 5.04 5.14 5.25 5.36 5.44 5.54 5.63 5.73 5.81 5.89 5.95 6.02 6.07 6.12 6.15 6.17 6.19 6.21 6.24 6.27 6.29 6.31 Jet Fuel ....................| 3.73 3.83 3.95 4.07 4.20 4.34 4.47 4.65 4.78 4.93 5.09 5.23 5.34 5.47 5.56 5.68 5.79 5.90 6.00 6.11 6.19 6.28 Motor Gasoline ..............|15.73 15.96 16.24 16.51 16.73 16.95 17.17 17.41 17.62 17.84 18.04 18.22 18.34 18.47 18.59 18.72 18.84 18.93 19.06 19.16 19.27 19.38 Residual Fuel................| .91 .94 .97 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.13 1.17 1.20 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.33 1.36 1.39 1.42 1.45 1.48 1.50 1.53 1.56 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| .04 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .10 .11 .13 .14 .15 .16 .17 .18 .19 .20 .20 .21 .22 .22 .23 .24 Other Petroleum .............| .31 .31 .32 .32 .32 .32 .33 .33 .34 .34 .35 .35 .36 .36 .36 .36 .37 .37 .37 .37 .37 .37 Petroleum Subtotal.........|25.75 26.22 26.78 27.31 27.80 28.30 28.81 29.37 29.85 30.33 30.81 31.25 31.58 31.92 32.21 32.51 32.80 33.06 33.36 33.64 33.90 34.14 Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas....| .81 .80 .82 .81 .84 .83 .85 .86 .89 .90 .93 .95 .94 .97 .97 .96 .99 .99 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.03 Compressed Natural Gas.......| .03 .05 .07 .09 .11 .13 .15 .17 .19 .21 .22 .24 .25 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 .32 .33 .34 .34 Renewables (E85) ............| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 .13 .14 .14 .15 .15 .16 Methanol ....................| .00 .00 .01 .01 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 .13 .14 .14 .15 .15 Liquid Hydrogen..............| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Electricity..................| .06 .06 .07 .07 .08 .10 .11 .12 .13 .14 .15 .16 .16 .17 .18 .18 .19 .20 .20 .21 .21 .22 Delivered Energy...........|26.66 27.14 27.74 28.30 28.85 29.40 29.97 30.61 31.15 31.71 32.26 32.77 33.12 33.54 33.87 34.20 34.54 34.83 35.16 35.48 35.76 36.04 Electricity Related Losses...| .14 .14 .15 .15 .18 .21 .23 .25 .27 .29 .30 .32 .33 .34 .35 .36 .37 .37 .38 .39 .40 .41 Total......................|26.80 27.28 27.89 28.45 29.03 29.61 30.20 30.86 31.42 31.99 32.57 33.09 33.46 33.88 34.22 34.56 34.91 35.20 35.55 35.88 36.16 36.45 + Deliver.Energy Cons.All Sectors + Distillate Fuel..............| 7.50 7.61 7.74 7.87 7.96 8.08 8.18 8.29 8.38 8.48 8.56 8.63 8.70 8.75 8.78 8.80 8.83 8.86 8.89 8.92 8.95 8.96 Kerosene.....................| .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 Jet Fuel ....................| 3.73 3.83 3.95 4.07 4.20 4.34 4.47 4.65 4.78 4.93 5.09 5.23 5.34 5.47 5.56 5.68 5.79 5.90 6.00 6.11 6.19 6.28 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| 2.67 2.71 2.74 2.78 2.81 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.09 3.13 3.17 3.20 3.21 3.23 3.24 3.26 3.27 3.28 3.30 3.31 Motor Gasoline ..............|15.95 16.19 16.47 16.75 16.98 17.20 17.43 17.67 17.88 18.10 18.30 18.49 18.62 18.74 18.87 19.00 19.12 19.21 19.34 19.45 19.56 19.67 Petrochemical Feedstocks.....| 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.51 Residual Fuel................| 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.60 1.64 1.67 1.71 1.74 1.78 1.81 1.83 1.86 1.88 1.92 1.95 1.97 1.99 2.03 Other Petroleum .............| 4.61 4.64 4.67 4.75 4.78 4.84 4.91 5.01 5.03 5.09 5.15 5.18 5.18 5.31 5.28 5.32 5.40 5.42 5.40 5.44 5.49 5.45 Petroleum Subtotal.........|37.24 37.80 38.45 39.13 39.69 40.31 40.95 41.69 42.25 42.87 43.46 43.98 44.37 44.88 45.15 45.50 45.87 46.19 46.46 46.79 47.11 47.33 Natural Gas .................|20.48 20.61 20.66 20.80 20.93 21.06 21.24 21.44 21.66 21.87 22.05 22.25 22.36 22.50 22.63 22.67 22.72 22.76 22.88 22.92 22.96 22.99 Metallurgical Coal...........| .85 .83 .82 .80 .78 .77 .76 .75 .74 .73 .72 .71 .70 .69 .67 .66 .65 .65 .64 .63 .62 .61 Steam Coal...................| 1.70 1.70 1.74 1.77 1.80 1.83 1.84 1.86 1.88 1.89 1.91 1.92 1.93 1.94 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.94 1.94 Net Coal Coke Imports........| .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 Coal Subtotal..............| 2.57 2.56 2.59 2.61 2.63 2.64 2.65 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.68 2.67 2.66 2.65 2.65 2.64 2.64 2.63 Renewable Energy ............| 2.55 2.58 2.61 2.64 2.67 2.71 2.76 2.80 2.84 2.89 2.93 2.96 3.00 3.03 3.05 3.07 3.08 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.14 3.15 Methanol ....................| .00 .00 .01 .01 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 .13 .14 .14 .15 .15 Liquid Hydrogen..............| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Electricity..................|11.11 11.32 11.56 11.73 11.90 12.10 12.29 12.48 12.68 12.88 13.05 13.23 13.44 13.63 13.77 13.90 14.04 14.19 14.31 14.44 14.57 14.70 Delivered Energy...........|73.94 74.88 75.88 76.92 77.82 78.85 79.92 81.12 82.15 83.24 84.25 85.19 85.95 86.84 87.39 87.92 88.50 89.02 89.55 90.05 90.56 90.95 Electricity Related Losses...|24.67 24.94 25.37 25.47 25.57 25.60 25.90 26.15 26.43 26.64 26.83 26.97 27.14 27.30 27.29 27.26 27.22 27.24 27.31 27.42 27.53 27.63 Total......................|98.61 99.8 101.3 102.4 103.4 104.5 105.8 107.3 108.6 109.9 111.1 112.2 113.1 114.1 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.3 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.6 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Electric Generators ... + Distillate Fuel..............| .09 .08 .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 Residual Fuel................| .52 .47 .44 .42 .32 .28 .30 .30 .27 .27 .29 .28 .28 .29 .27 .25 .25 .25 .24 .24 .24 .24 Petroleum Subtotal.........| .61 .54 .52 .49 .39 .35 .37 .37 .34 .34 .36 .35 .36 .37 .35 .32 .32 .32 .31 .32 .31 .31 Natural Gas..................| 4.03 4.14 4.45 4.69 5.10 5.37 5.69 5.95 6.30 6.73 7.07 7.38 7.60 7.92 8.24 8.42 8.71 8.92 9.38 9.59 9.87 10.07 Steam Coal...................|19.23 19.57 20.04 20.05 20.17 20.29 20.55 20.82 21.05 21.17 21.24 21.34 21.62 21.70 21.81 22.11 22.29 22.46 22.60 22.84 22.95 22.99 Nuclear Power................| 7.35 7.36 7.26 7.31 7.16 7.03 6.87 6.77 6.68 6.54 6.45 6.36 6.24 6.14 5.91 5.55 5.12 4.93 4.49 4.25 4.13 4.09 Renewable Energy ............| 4.17 4.24 4.27 4.26 4.30 4.31 4.37 4.39 4.39 4.42 4.44 4.46 4.46 4.50 4.47 4.48 4.53 4.53 4.56 4.59 4.57 4.59 Electricity Imports..........| .39 .41 .40 .40 .36 .36 .34 .34 .34 .32 .33 .31 .30 .30 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 Total......................|35.77 36.26 36.93 37.21 37.48 37.70 38.19 38.64 39.11 39.52 39.88 40.20 40.58 40.93 41.06 41.16 41.26 41.43 41.62 41.86 42.11 42.33 + Total Energy Consumption + Distillate Fuel..............| 7.59 7.68 7.82 7.94 8.03 8.15 8.25 8.36 8.45 8.55 8.63 8.70 8.77 8.83 8.86 8.87 8.90 8.93 8.97 9.00 9.02 9.04 Kerosene.....................| .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 Jet Fuel ....................| 3.73 3.83 3.95 4.07 4.20 4.34 4.47 4.65 4.78 4.93 5.09 5.23 5.34 5.47 5.56 5.68 5.79 5.90 6.00 6.11 6.19 6.28 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| 2.67 2.71 2.74 2.78 2.81 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.09 3.13 3.17 3.20 3.21 3.23 3.24 3.26 3.27 3.28 3.30 3.31 Motor Gasoline ..............|15.95 16.19 16.47 16.75 16.98 17.20 17.43 17.67 17.88 18.10 18.30 18.49 18.62 18.74 18.87 19.00 19.12 19.21 19.34 19.45 19.56 19.67 Petrochemical Feedstocks.....| 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.51 Residual Fuel................| 1.89 1.87 1.87 1.87 1.81 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.91 1.94 2.00 2.02 2.06 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.14 2.17 2.19 2.21 2.23 2.27 Other Petroleum .............| 4.61 4.64 4.67 4.75 4.78 4.84 4.91 5.01 5.03 5.09 5.15 5.18 5.18 5.31 5.28 5.32 5.40 5.42 5.40 5.44 5.49 5.45 Petroleum Subtotal.........|37.85 38.35 38.97 39.62 40.08 40.66 41.32 42.06 42.59 43.20 43.83 44.33 44.73 45.25 45.49 45.82 46.20 46.50 46.77 47.10 47.42 47.64 Natural Gas..................|24.51 24.74 25.12 25.49 26.03 26.43 26.93 27.38 27.96 28.60 29.12 29.63 29.96 30.42 30.88 31.09 31.44 31.68 32.27 32.51 32.82 33.06 Metallurgical Coal...........| .85 .83 .82 .80 .78 .77 .76 .75 .74 .73 .72 .71 .70 .69 .67 .66 .65 .65 .64 .63 .62 .61 Steam Coal...................|20.92 21.28 21.78 21.82 21.96 22.11 22.40 22.68 22.93 23.07 23.14 23.26 23.55 23.64 23.75 24.04 24.22 24.38 24.53 24.77 24.88 24.92 Net Coal Coke Imports........| .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 Coal Subtotal..............|21.80 22.14 22.63 22.66 22.79 22.93 23.21 23.48 23.72 23.85 23.92 24.03 24.31 24.39 24.49 24.78 24.95 25.11 25.24 25.48 25.58 25.61 Nuclear Power................| 7.35 7.36 7.26 7.31 7.16 7.03 6.87 6.77 6.68 6.54 6.45 6.36 6.24 6.14 5.91 5.55 5.12 4.93 4.49 4.25 4.13 4.09 Renewable Energy ............| 6.72 6.82 6.88 6.90 6.96 7.02 7.12 7.19 7.24 7.31 7.36 7.42 7.46 7.53 7.52 7.55 7.62 7.63 7.67 7.71 7.71 7.74 Methanol ....................| .00 .00 .01 .01 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 .13 .14 .14 .15 .15 Liquid Hydrogen..............| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Electricity Imports..........| .39 .41 .40 .40 .36 .36 .34 .34 .34 .32 .33 .31 .30 .30 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 Total......................|98.61 99.8 101.3 102.4 103.4 104.5 105.8 107.3 108.6 109.9 111.1 112.2 113.1 114.1 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.3 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.6 + Energy Use & Related Statistics + + Delivered Energy Use..........|73.94 74.88 75.88 76.92 77.82 78.85 79.92 81.12 82.15 83.24 84.25 85.19 85.95 86.84 87.39 87.92 88.50 89.02 89.55 90.05 90.56 90.95 Total Energy Use..............|98.61 99.8 101.3 102.4 103.4 104.5 105.8 107.3 108.6 109.9 111.1 112.2 113.1 114.1 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.2 116.8 117.5 118.1 118.5 Population (millions).........|273.3 275.6 277.9 280.2 282.5 284.8 287.1 289.4 291.8 294.1 296.5 298.9 301.4 303.8 306.3 308.7 311.2 313.7 316.1 318.6 321.0 323.5 US GDP (billion 1992 dollars).| 7489 7653 7815 7972 8130 8312 8503 8694 8880 9073 9255 9431 9600 9774 9932 10073 10211 10348 10494 10635 10772 10900 Tot. Carbon Emis.(mill m. ton)| 1557 1577 1607 1625 1644 1663 1689 1716 1740 1763 1784 1803 1823 1841 1855 1871 1888 1902 1918 1935 1948 1956 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996 Dollars per Million Btu) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Residential....................|12.49 12.45 12.46 12.37 12.39 12.31 12.31 12.24 12.27 12.25 12.24 12.21 12.15 12.01 12.00 11.98 11.91 11.92 11.92 11.91 11.93 11.97 Primary Energy ..............| 6.34 6.32 6.34 6.29 6.27 6.24 6.23 6.19 6.22 6.19 6.18 6.15 6.15 6.09 6.08 6.08 6.07 6.08 6.09 6.11 6.14 6.17 Petroleum Products ........| 8.57 8.67 8.79 8.85 8.93 9.05 9.20 9.17 9.35 9.35 9.36 9.42 9.43 9.39 9.49 9.54 9.54 9.62 9.54 9.63 9.65 9.70 Distillate Fuel..........| 7.08 7.15 7.23 7.25 7.29 7.38 7.47 7.41 7.57 7.52 7.54 7.55 7.56 7.47 7.61 7.63 7.64 7.65 7.59 7.66 7.67 7.71 Liquefied Petroleum Gas..|11.48 11.56 11.68 11.77 11.87 12.00 12.21 12.17 12.36 12.38 12.35 12.45 12.43 12.44 12.39 12.44 12.43 12.59 12.45 12.55 12.55 12.57 Natural Gas................| 5.81 5.77 5.77 5.69 5.64 5.59 5.55 5.52 5.51 5.48 5.47 5.42 5.42 5.36 5.34 5.33 5.32 5.32 5.36 5.37 5.40 5.44 Electricity..................|23.29 22.93 22.61 22.37 22.36 22.13 22.04 21.82 21.74 21.65 21.55 21.43 21.16 20.84 20.77 20.62 20.40 20.33 20.23 20.11 20.03 20.01 + Commercial.....................|12.51 12.33 12.21 12.10 12.05 11.94 11.84 11.74 11.74 11.67 11.65 11.63 11.49 11.35 11.33 11.29 11.19 11.16 11.14 11.12 11.11 11.15 Primary Energy ..............| 4.92 4.91 4.93 4.88 4.86 4.84 4.82 4.80 4.83 4.82 4.81 4.79 4.80 4.75 4.76 4.77 4.77 4.78 4.81 4.83 4.87 4.91 Petroleum Products ........| 5.49 5.54 5.63 5.65 5.72 5.78 5.87 5.82 5.99 5.98 5.97 6.02 6.01 5.94 6.07 6.13 6.12 6.17 6.12 6.19 6.21 6.25 Distillate Fuel..........| 5.17 5.23 5.30 5.33 5.38 5.45 5.53 5.48 5.64 5.61 5.63 5.65 5.65 5.57 5.72 5.75 5.75 5.76 5.74 5.81 5.83 5.86 Residual Fuel............| 3.01 2.97 3.04 3.02 3.10 3.06 3.06 3.01 3.15 3.19 3.08 3.16 3.10 3.06 3.19 3.32 3.28 3.34 3.26 3.28 3.36 3.40 Natural Gas ...............| 4.90 4.88 4.88 4.82 4.78 4.74 4.71 4.69 4.70 4.69 4.68 4.66 4.67 4.63 4.62 4.62 4.62 4.63 4.67 4.69 4.73 4.77 Electricity..................|21.46 21.02 20.68 20.47 20.33 20.08 19.81 19.59 19.49 19.31 19.22 19.16 18.80 18.51 18.41 18.27 18.02 17.89 17.78 17.68 17.58 17.58 + Industrial ....................| 4.95 4.92 4.95 4.96 4.99 5.01 5.04 5.02 5.09 5.11 5.11 5.15 5.13 5.08 5.11 5.13 5.10 5.14 5.12 5.16 5.17 5.21 Primary Energy...............| 3.57 3.59 3.64 3.66 3.69 3.73 3.79 3.78 3.88 3.91 3.92 3.97 3.98 3.96 4.00 4.04 4.04 4.09 4.07 4.13 4.15 4.20 Petroleum Products ........| 4.91 4.96 5.03 5.08 5.15 5.21 5.32 5.26 5.44 5.46 5.45 5.53 5.53 5.44 5.53 5.58 5.55 5.64 5.58 5.66 5.67 5.70 Distillate Fuel..........| 5.21 5.24 5.32 5.35 5.43 5.49 5.56 5.51 5.67 5.69 5.73 5.74 5.75 5.69 5.85 5.91 5.88 5.90 5.94 6.02 6.05 6.07 Liquefied Petroleum Gas..| 5.92 5.98 6.09 6.17 6.26 6.38 6.60 6.54 6.71 6.70 6.66 6.76 6.74 6.61 6.59 6.66 6.64 6.81 6.71 6.78 6.73 6.81 Residual Fuel............| 2.69 2.70 2.74 2.74 2.80 2.80 2.83 2.77 2.94 2.99 2.94 3.02 3.00 2.94 3.10 3.20 3.15 3.20 3.21 3.27 3.31 3.35 Natural Gas ...............| 2.75 2.73 2.76 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.77 2.80 2.84 2.87 2.90 2.93 2.95 2.97 2.97 2.99 3.00 3.02 3.04 3.08 3.11 3.17 Metallurgical Coal.........| 1.77 1.76 1.74 1.73 1.73 1.72 1.71 1.70 1.70 1.69 1.69 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.66 Steam Coal.................| 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.30 Electricity..................|12.97 12.68 12.48 12.34 12.26 12.09 11.93 11.79 11.69 11.57 11.49 11.41 11.14 10.92 10.85 10.76 10.59 10.50 10.43 10.35 10.27 10.26 + Transportation.................| 8.42 8.53 8.59 8.60 8.65 8.68 8.78 8.73 8.87 8.83 8.84 8.84 8.84 8.80 8.87 8.91 8.87 8.90 8.82 8.85 8.87 8.89 Primary Energy...............| 8.40 8.52 8.57 8.58 8.63 8.66 8.76 8.71 8.85 8.81 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.78 8.85 8.89 8.85 8.88 8.79 8.83 8.85 8.87 Petroleum Products ........| 8.41 8.52 8.58 8.59 8.64 8.67 8.77 8.71 8.85 8.81 8.81 8.80 8.80 8.76 8.82 8.86 8.82 8.84 8.76 8.78 8.81 8.82 Distillate Fuel .........| 8.52 8.53 8.60 8.60 8.66 8.70 8.74 8.65 8.74 8.68 8.73 8.61 8.61 8.54 8.64 8.63 8.60 8.56 8.51 8.54 8.56 8.52 Jet Fuel ................| 5.00 5.12 5.20 5.25 5.36 5.43 5.58 5.61 5.75 5.80 5.82 5.85 5.88 5.89 5.93 6.02 6.05 6.06 5.99 6.05 6.13 6.27 Motor Gasoline ..........| 9.61 9.78 9.83 9.86 9.91 9.94 10.06 10.02 10.18 10.14 10.14 10.18 10.19 10.15 10.23 10.28 10.22 10.29 10.19 10.22 10.24 10.24 Residual Fuel............| 2.56 2.61 2.67 2.69 2.79 2.82 2.85 2.80 2.97 3.00 2.99 3.07 3.08 3.01 3.13 3.17 3.14 3.18 3.17 3.26 3.33 3.32 Liquid Petroleum Gas ....|12.75 12.80 12.88 12.94 13.01 13.09 13.27 13.19 13.34 13.32 13.25 13.30 13.24 13.22 13.12 13.13 13.07 13.20 13.00 13.06 13.03 13.01 Natural Gas ...............| 5.52 5.46 5.44 5.42 5.47 5.57 5.72 5.91 6.14 6.32 6.47 6.60 6.73 6.80 6.91 7.00 7.06 7.14 7.19 7.25 7.31 7.39 E85 .......................|15.56 15.81 15.91 15.95 15.99 16.07 16.30 16.32 16.69 16.61 16.64 16.71 16.75 16.78 16.89 16.99 17.04 17.21 17.33 17.48 17.64 17.79 M85 .......................|11.43 11.59 11.66 11.68 11.76 11.80 11.87 11.92 11.98 11.99 12.01 12.04 12.34 12.63 12.69 12.70 12.15 13.07 12.78 12.94 13.00 13.12 Electricity..................|14.91 14.66 14.43 14.20 14.02 13.78 13.69 13.51 13.45 13.38 13.31 13.25 12.98 12.83 12.78 12.70 12.54 12.50 12.41 12.33 12.27 12.26 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (Continued) (1996 Dollars per Million Btu) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Average End-Use Energy.........| 8.24 8.26 8.28 8.26 8.29 8.29 8.33 8.27 8.36 8.34 8.34 8.35 8.33 8.26 8.30 8.32 8.28 8.31 8.27 8.30 8.32 8.36 Primary Energy...............| 7.91 7.94 7.96 7.95 7.99 8.00 8.05 8.00 8.10 8.08 8.08 8.09 8.07 8.02 8.06 8.09 8.05 8.08 8.03 8.07 8.09 8.12 Electricity..................|19.26 18.93 18.65 18.44 18.35 18.12 17.94 17.73 17.63 17.50 17.40 17.32 17.02 16.75 16.67 16.56 16.36 16.28 16.18 16.09 16.01 16.01 + Electric Generators ... + Fossil Fuel Average..........| 1.47 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.55 1.57 1.57 1.58 1.59 1.59 1.60 1.60 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.66 Petroleum Products.........| 3.16 3.21 3.28 3.32 3.51 3.59 3.57 3.53 3.75 3.80 3.73 3.84 3.84 3.79 3.94 4.06 4.00 4.06 4.05 4.12 4.20 4.21 Distillate Fuel..........| 4.80 4.84 4.91 4.93 5.04 5.09 5.16 5.11 5.28 5.28 5.31 5.33 5.35 5.31 5.44 5.49 5.47 5.48 5.50 5.60 5.65 5.64 Residual Fuel............| 2.89 2.95 2.99 3.03 3.18 3.23 3.20 3.17 3.36 3.42 3.35 3.46 3.43 3.39 3.53 3.65 3.60 3.65 3.61 3.66 3.76 3.77 Natural Gas................| 2.43 2.48 2.53 2.55 2.55 2.60 2.63 2.68 2.73 2.77 2.81 2.84 2.89 2.90 2.93 2.95 2.98 3.00 3.03 3.07 3.10 3.15 Steam Coal.................| 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.01 1.00 .99 .98 .97 + Average Price to All Users ... + Petroleum Products ..........| 7.48 7.59 7.66 7.69 7.77 7.82 7.92 7.86 8.02 8.00 8.00 8.02 8.02 7.97 8.05 8.09 8.06 8.10 8.03 8.07 8.10 8.12 Distillate Fuel ...........| 7.61 7.65 7.73 7.74 7.80 7.85 7.92 7.84 7.95 7.91 7.95 7.88 7.88 7.81 7.93 7.93 7.91 7.88 7.85 7.90 7.92 7.90 Jet Fuel...................| 5.00 5.12 5.20 5.25 5.36 5.43 5.58 5.61 5.75 5.80 5.82 5.85 5.88 5.89 5.93 6.02 6.05 6.06 5.99 6.05 6.13 6.27 Liquefied Petroleum Gas....| 7.06 7.12 7.25 7.34 7.46 7.60 7.84 7.80 7.99 8.00 7.97 8.09 8.07 7.99 7.98 8.05 8.05 8.23 8.12 8.21 8.17 8.24 Motor Gasoline ............| 9.59 9.76 9.82 9.84 9.89 9.92 10.05 10.00 10.16 10.13 10.12 10.16 10.17 10.14 10.21 10.26 10.21 10.28 10.18 10.21 10.23 10.23 Residual Fuel..............| 2.70 2.73 2.78 2.80 2.88 2.90 2.92 2.87 3.03 3.07 3.04 3.12 3.11 3.06 3.18 3.24 3.21 3.25 3.23 3.31 3.38 3.38 Natural Gas..................| 3.76 3.74 3.75 3.71 3.69 3.67 3.66 3.66 3.68 3.69 3.70 3.70 3.72 3.71 3.70 3.72 3.72 3.74 3.76 3.78 3.81 3.86 Coal.........................| 1.24 1.22 1.21 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 E85 .........................|15.56 15.81 15.91 15.95 15.99 16.07 16.30 16.32 16.69 16.61 16.64 16.71 16.75 16.78 16.89 16.99 17.04 17.21 17.33 17.48 17.64 17.79 M85 .........................|11.43 11.59 11.66 11.68 11.76 11.80 11.87 11.92 11.98 11.99 12.01 12.04 12.34 12.63 12.69 12.70 12.15 13.07 12.78 12.94 13.00 13.12 Electricity..................|19.26 18.93 18.65 18.44 18.35 18.12 17.94 17.73 17.63 17.50 17.40 17.32 17.02 16.75 16.67 16.56 16.36 16.28 16.18 16.09 16.01 16.01 + Non-Renewable Energy Expentures + by Sect.(billion 1996 dollars) + Residential....................|116.2 118.7 120.9 121.3 122.5 123.1 124.2 124.9 126.5 128.1 129.1 130.4 131.4 131.9 133.0 134.1 134.7 136.7 137.8 139.1 140.7 143.1 Commercial.....................|96.58 96.19 96.17 96.28 96.82 96.99 97.11 97.29 98.11 98.51 99.2 100.0 99.6 99.3 99.9 100.2 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.3 100.3 100.7 Industrial.....................|130.7 130.9 132.8 134.4 136.1 137.8 140.4 141.6 145.3 147.2 148.8 151.1 151.5 151.1 152.3 153.2 152.8 154.2 154.1 155.7 156.6 157.7 Transportation.................|217.6 224.7 231.1 236.2 242.1 247.5 255.1 258.6 267.1 270.5 274.9 279.0 282.2 283.9 288.8 292.8 294.2 297.5 297.4 301.0 304.3 307.0 Total Non-Renewable Expend...|561.2 570.6 580.9 588.1 597.5 605.5 616.8 622.4 637.0 644.3 652.0 660.4 664.7 666.3 674.0 680.3 681.6 688.5 689.5 696.1 702.0 708.6 Trans. Renew. Expenditures...| .05 .05 .06 .07 .08 .26 .45 .65 .87 1.07 1.27 1.47 1.65 1.83 1.99 2.13 2.25 2.37 2.48 2.59 2.69 2.79 Total Expenditures...........|561.2 570.6 581.0 588.2 597.6 605.8 617.3 623.0 637.9 645.4 653.3 661.9 666.3 668.1 676.0 682.5 683.9 690.9 692.0 698.7 704.7 711.4 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Key Indicators and Consumption |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Key Indicators + + Households (millions) + Single-Family................|72.38 73.26 74.12 74.96 75.79 76.62 77.46 78.29 79.12 79.94 80.74 81.54 82.36 83.19 84.01 84.81 85.60 86.38 87.17 87.96 88.75 89.52 Multifamily..................|25.37 25.54 25.72 25.91 26.10 26.31 26.54 26.78 27.04 27.32 27.61 27.92 28.22 28.54 28.85 29.15 29.44 29.72 30.00 30.28 30.56 30.84 Mobile Homes.................| 6.42 6.54 6.65 6.76 6.87 6.97 7.08 7.19 7.29 7.39 7.49 7.58 7.67 7.76 7.85 7.93 8.01 8.08 8.16 8.22 8.29 8.35 Total......................|104.2 105.3 106.5 107.6 108.8 109.9 111.1 112.3 113.5 114.7 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.5 120.7 121.9 123.0 124.2 125.3 126.5 127.6 128.7 + Average House Square Footage...| 1664 1669 1674 1678 1682 1686 1689 1693 1696 1699 1701 1704 1707 1709 1712 1714 1716 1719 1721 1723 1726 1728 + Energy Intensity + (million Btu per household) + Delivered Energy Consumption..|107.5 107.9 107.6 107.2 106.8 106.6 105.9 105.7 105.3 105.3 104.8 104.6 104.4 104.7 104.2 104.0 103.8 103.9 103.3 103.1 102.9 102.9 Electricity Related Losses....|83.05 83.92 84.97 84.22 83.50 82.46 82.23 82.00 81.84 81.67 81.15 80.73 80.45 80.26 79.45 78.85 78.15 77.91 77.47 77.35 77.18 77.20 Total Energy Consumption......|190.5 191.8 192.6 191.4 190.3 189.1 188.2 187.7 187.1 187.0 185.9 185.4 184.9 184.9 183.6 182.8 181.9 181.8 180.8 180.4 180.1 180.1 + Delivered Energy Consum. by Fuel + + Electricity + Space Heating................| .46 .46 .47 .47 .47 .48 .48 .49 .49 .49 .50 .50 .50 .51 .51 .51 .51 .52 .52 .52 .52 .53 Space Cooling................| .47 .48 .49 .49 .50 .51 .51 .52 .53 .53 .54 .54 .55 .56 .57 .57 .58 .58 .59 .59 .60 .60 Water Heating................| .35 .36 .36 .36 .36 .36 .36 .37 .37 .37 .37 .38 .38 .38 .38 .39 .39 .39 .40 .40 .40 .40 Refrigeration................| .36 .36 .35 .34 .33 .32 .31 .31 .30 .29 .29 .28 .28 .28 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 Cooking......................| .13 .13 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .17 .17 .17 Clothes Dryers...............| .19 .20 .20 .20 .20 .21 .21 .21 .21 .22 .22 .22 .23 .23 .23 .23 .24 .24 .24 .25 .25 .25 Freezers.....................| .11 .11 .10 .10 .09 .09 .09 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 Lighting.....................| .34 .35 .35 .36 .36 .36 .36 .37 .37 .38 .39 .39 .40 .41 .42 .42 .42 .43 .43 .44 .45 .45 Clothes Washers .............| .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 Dishwashers .................| .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 Color Televisions............| .24 .25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 .31 .32 .32 .32 .33 .34 .34 .34 .35 .35 .36 .36 .37 .37 Personal Computers...........| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 Furnace Fans.................| .12 .13 .13 .13 .13 .14 .14 .14 .14 .15 .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .16 .16 .17 .17 .17 .17 .18 Other Uses ..................| .97 1.06 1.15 1.18 1.22 1.26 1.29 1.33 1.37 1.41 1.45 1.49 1.53 1.57 1.61 1.64 1.68 1.73 1.75 1.79 1.82 1.86 Delivered Energy...........| 3.84 3.97 4.08 4.13 4.18 4.24 4.29 4.35 4.41 4.49 4.54 4.61 4.68 4.76 4.82 4.88 4.94 5.02 5.07 5.14 5.20 5.28 + Natural Gas + Space Heating................| 3.69 3.72 3.71 3.73 3.75 3.77 3.78 3.79 3.81 3.84 3.84 3.87 3.88 3.92 3.94 3.96 3.97 4.00 3.99 4.01 4.02 4.04 Space Cooling................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 Water Heating................| 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.41 1.41 1.43 1.44 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.55 Cooking......................| .16 .16 .16 .16 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .19 Clothes Dryers...............| .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 Other Uses ..................| .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 Delivered Energy...........| 5.30 5.35 5.35 5.38 5.41 5.45 5.47 5.50 5.53 5.58 5.59 5.63 5.66 5.72 5.75 5.79 5.82 5.87 5.87 5.90 5.93 5.97 + Distillate + Space Heating................| .76 .75 .74 .73 .72 .71 .70 .69 .68 .68 .68 .67 .67 .66 .65 .65 .64 .64 .64 .63 .63 .62 Water Heating................| .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 Other Uses ..................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Delivered Energy...........| .86 .85 .83 .82 .81 .81 .79 .79 .78 .78 .77 .77 .76 .76 .75 .75 .74 .74 .74 .73 .73 .72 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Key Indicators and Consumption |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Liquefied Petroleum Gas + Space Heating................| .32 .33 .33 .33 .33 .33 .33 .34 .34 .34 .34 .34 .34 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 Water Heating................| .08 .08 .08 .08 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 Cooking......................| .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 Other Uses ..................| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 Delivered Energy...........| .45 .45 .46 .46 .46 .47 .47 .47 .48 .48 .48 .49 .49 .50 .50 .50 .50 .51 .51 .51 .51 .51 + Marketed Renewables (wood) ....| .61 .61 .61 .61 .62 .62 .62 .62 .62 .63 .62 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .64 .64 .64 .64 .64 .64 Other Fuels ...................| .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 .12 + Deliv. Energy Consum. by End-Use + Space Heating..................| 5.97 6.00 5.99 6.00 6.01 6.05 6.04 6.06 6.07 6.10 6.11 6.13 6.14 6.20 6.21 6.22 6.24 6.27 6.26 6.27 6.28 6.31 Space Cooling..................| .48 .48 .49 .50 .50 .51 .52 .52 .53 .54 .54 .55 .56 .57 .57 .58 .58 .59 .59 .60 .60 .61 Water Heating..................| 1.84 1.86 1.86 1.87 1.89 1.90 1.91 1.93 1.94 1.97 1.98 1.99 2.01 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.08 2.10 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.17 Refrigeration..................| .36 .36 .35 .34 .33 .32 .31 .31 .30 .29 .29 .28 .28 .28 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 Cooking........................| .33 .33 .33 .34 .34 .34 .35 .35 .35 .36 .36 .36 .37 .37 .37 .38 .38 .38 .39 .39 .39 .40 Clothes Dryers.................| .24 .25 .25 .25 .26 .26 .26 .27 .27 .27 .28 .28 .28 .29 .29 .29 .30 .30 .30 .31 .31 .32 Freezers.......................| .11 .11 .10 .10 .09 .09 .09 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 Lighting.......................| .34 .35 .35 .36 .36 .36 .36 .37 .37 .38 .39 .39 .40 .41 .42 .42 .42 .43 .43 .44 .45 .45 Clothes Washers................| .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 Dishwashers....................| .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 Color Televisions..............| .24 .25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 .31 .32 .32 .32 .33 .34 .34 .34 .35 .35 .36 .36 .37 .37 Personal Computers.............| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 Furnace Fans...................| .12 .13 .13 .13 .13 .14 .14 .14 .14 .15 .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .16 .16 .17 .17 .17 .17 .18 Other Uses ....................| 1.08 1.17 1.26 1.29 1.33 1.37 1.40 1.44 1.48 1.53 1.56 1.61 1.65 1.69 1.73 1.76 1.80 1.85 1.88 1.91 1.95 1.99 Delivered Energy.............|11.20 11.36 11.46 11.53 11.61 11.72 11.77 11.86 11.94 12.08 12.14 12.25 12.35 12.51 12.58 12.68 12.77 12.90 12.95 13.04 13.13 13.25 + Electricity Related Losses......| 8.54 8.75 8.95 8.97 8.99 8.97 9.05 9.12 9.20 9.28 9.33 9.39 9.45 9.54 9.55 9.57 9.58 9.65 9.68 9.76 9.83 9.93 + Total Energy Consum. by End-Use + Space Heating..................| 6.99 7.03 7.02 7.03 7.03 7.06 7.06 7.08 7.09 7.13 7.12 7.15 7.16 7.22 7.22 7.23 7.24 7.26 7.25 7.26 7.28 7.30 Space Cooling..................| 1.53 1.54 1.56 1.57 1.57 1.58 1.60 1.61 1.62 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.74 Water Heating..................| 2.63 2.64 2.64 2.65 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.70 2.71 2.73 2.74 2.76 2.77 2.80 2.81 2.82 2.84 2.86 2.87 2.89 2.90 2.93 Refrigeration..................| 1.17 1.15 1.12 1.08 1.04 1.00 .97 .95 .92 .90 .88 .86 .85 .83 .82 .81 .80 .79 .79 .78 .78 .79 Cooking........................| .62 .63 .63 .64 .64 .64 .65 .65 .66 .66 .67 .67 .68 .68 .68 .69 .69 .70 .70 .70 .71 .72 Clothes Dryers.................| .67 .68 .68 .69 .69 .70 .70 .71 .72 .72 .73 .73 .74 .75 .75 .75 .76 .76 .77 .77 .78 .79 Freezers.......................| .36 .34 .32 .31 .29 .28 .27 .26 .25 .24 .24 .23 .23 .22 .22 .22 .21 .21 .21 .21 .21 .21 Lighting.......................| 1.10 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.11 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.30 Clothes Washers................| .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 Dishwashers....................| .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .16 Color Televisions..............| .77 .81 .84 .86 .88 .91 .93 .95 .96 .97 .97 .98 .99 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.08 Personal Computers.............| .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 Furnace Fans...................| .40 .41 .41 .42 .42 .43 .43 .44 .44 .45 .45 .46 .47 .47 .48 .48 .48 .49 .49 .50 .50 .51 Other Uses ....................| 3.24 3.50 3.78 3.86 3.95 4.03 4.13 4.23 4.34 4.45 4.54 4.64 4.74 4.84 4.91 4.99 5.06 5.16 5.22 5.30 5.38 5.48 Total........................|19.74 20.11 20.40 20.50 20.60 20.69 20.81 20.98 21.14 21.36 21.47 21.64 21.80 22.05 22.12 22.25 22.35 22.55 22.63 22.79 22.95 23.17 + Non-Marketed Renewables + Geothermal ....................| .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 Solar .........................| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 Total........................| .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Key Indicators and Consumption |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + + Key Indicators + + Total Floorspace(bill. sq. ft.) + Surviving....................| 72.1 73.1 74.0 74.8 75.6 76.4 77.3 78.1 78.9 79.6 80.4 81.1 81.9 82.6 83.2 83.8 84.3 84.8 85.1 85.4 85.6 85.7 New Additions................| 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 Total......................| 74.0 74.9 75.7 76.5 77.3 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.6 81.3 82.1 82.8 83.5 84.2 84.8 85.4 85.8 86.2 86.5 86.6 86.8 86.8 + Energy Consumption Intensity + (thousand Btu/sq. ft.) + Delivered Energy Consumption.|104.4 104.2 104.1 104.0 103.9 103.9 103.8 103.8 103.8 103.8 103.8 103.8 103.8 103.9 103.9 103.9 104.0 104.0 104.1 104.1 104.1 104.2 Electricity Related Losses...|106.4 105.7 105.5 104.6 103.8 102.4 102.4 102.1 102.0 101.5 101.2 100.8 100.2 99.8 99.2 98.5 97.7 97.2 96.9 96.8 96.6 96.4 Total Energy Consumption.....|210.8 209.9 209.6 208.6 207.7 206.3 206.2 206.0 205.8 205.3 205.0 204.5 204.1 203.7 203.1 202.4 201.7 201.2 201.0 200.9 200.7 200.5 + Delivered Energy Consump.by Fuel + + Electricity + Space Heating................| .12 .12 .12 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 Space Cooling................| .53 .53 .53 .53 .53 .53 .54 .54 .54 .54 .54 .55 .55 .55 .56 .56 .56 .56 .56 .56 .56 .56 Water Heating................| .17 .17 .17 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .14 .14 .14 Ventilation..................| .17 .17 .17 .17 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .19 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 Cooking......................| .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 Lighting.....................| 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 Refrigeration................| .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .17 .17 Office Equipment (PC)........| .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 Office Equipment (non-PC)....| .21 .21 .22 .22 .23 .23 .24 .24 .25 .26 .26 .27 .28 .28 .29 .29 .30 .31 .31 .32 .32 .33 Other Uses ..................| .92 .95 .98 1.02 1.05 1.09 1.12 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.26 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.51 1.53 Delivered Energy...........| 3.54 3.59 3.64 3.69 3.73 3.79 3.84 3.89 3.94 3.99 4.04 4.09 4.15 4.20 4.24 4.29 4.33 4.36 4.39 4.41 4.43 4.45 + Natural Gas .. + Space Heating................| 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.40 Space Cooling................| .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 Water Heating................| .47 .47 .47 .48 .48 .49 .50 .50 .50 .51 .51 .52 .52 .53 .53 .54 .54 .54 .55 .55 .55 .55 Cooking......................| .19 .20 .20 .20 .20 .21 .21 .21 .21 .22 .22 .22 .22 .23 .23 .23 .23 .23 .23 .23 .23 .23 Other Uses ..................| 1.43 1.44 1.46 1.47 1.49 1.50 1.52 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.57 1.59 1.60 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 Delivered Energy...........| 3.44 3.47 3.49 3.52 3.56 3.59 3.62 3.65 3.67 3.70 3.72 3.75 3.77 3.80 3.82 3.84 3.85 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.85 + Distillate + Space Heating................| .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .16 .16 .16 .16 .15 Water Heating................| .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 Other Uses ..................| .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 Delivered Energy...........| .41 .41 .41 .41 .41 .41 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .40 .39 .39 .39 .39 .39 .38 .38 .38 .37 + Other Fuels ...................| .33 .33 .33 .33 .34 .34 .34 .34 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .36 .36 .36 .36 .36 .36 .36 .36 .36 + Marketed Renewable Fuels + Biomass......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Delivered Energy...........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Key Indicators and Consumption |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deliv. Energy Consump.by End-Use + Space Heating................| 1.64 1.65 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.68 1.69 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.71 1.72 1.72 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.72 1.72 1.71 1.70 Space Cooling................| .55 .55 .55 .55 .55 .56 .56 .56 .56 .57 .57 .57 .57 .58 .58 .58 .58 .58 .58 .58 .58 .58 Water Heating................| .69 .69 .69 .69 .70 .70 .70 .71 .71 .71 .72 .72 .72 .73 .73 .73 .73 .73 .73 .73 .73 .73 Ventilation..................| .17 .17 .17 .17 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .19 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 Cooking......................| .22 .23 .23 .23 .23 .24 .24 .24 .24 .24 .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 Lighting.....................| 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 Refrigeration................| .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .17 .17 Office Equipment (PC)........| .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 Office Equipment (non-PC)....| .21 .21 .22 .22 .23 .23 .24 .24 .25 .26 .26 .27 .28 .28 .29 .29 .30 .31 .31 .32 .32 .33 Other Uses ..................| 2.84 2.89 2.94 2.99 3.05 3.10 3.16 3.21 3.26 3.31 3.36 3.41 3.45 3.50 3.54 3.58 3.61 3.64 3.66 3.68 3.70 3.71 Delivered Energy...........| 7.72 7.80 7.88 7.96 8.04 8.12 8.21 8.29 8.36 8.44 8.52 8.60 8.67 8.75 8.82 8.87 8.92 8.97 9.00 9.02 9.03 9.04 + Electricity Related Losses......| 7.87 7.91 7.99 8.01 8.03 8.01 8.09 8.15 8.22 8.26 8.31 8.35 8.37 8.41 8.41 8.40 8.39 8.37 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.37 + Total Energy Consump. by End-Use + Space Heating................| 1.91 1.92 1.93 1.93 1.94 1.95 1.96 1.97 1.97 1.98 1.99 1.99 2.00 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.00 2.00 1.99 1.98 Space Cooling................| 1.72 1.71 1.71 1.70 1.70 1.68 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.67 1.66 1.65 1.65 1.64 1.63 Water Heating................| 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 Ventilation..................| .55 .55 .55 .55 .55 .55 .55 .56 .56 .56 .56 .56 .56 .55 .55 .55 .54 .54 .54 .53 .53 .53 Cooking......................| .29 .29 .29 .30 .30 .30 .30 .30 .30 .30 .30 .31 .31 .31 .31 .31 .31 .31 .31 .31 .31 .31 Lighting.....................| 3.83 3.83 3.84 3.82 3.80 3.77 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.77 3.77 3.78 3.77 3.76 3.74 3.73 3.72 3.71 3.69 3.67 Refrigeration................| .47 .47 .47 .47 .47 .47 .47 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 .48 Office Equipment (PC)........| .22 .23 .23 .24 .24 .24 .24 .25 .25 .25 .26 .26 .26 .26 .27 .27 .27 .27 .28 .28 .28 .29 Office Equipment (non-PC)....| .67 .68 .69 .70 .72 .73 .74 .76 .77 .79 .80 .82 .83 .85 .86 .87 .88 .89 .90 .92 .93 .94 Other Uses ..................| 4.87 4.98 5.10 5.20 5.31 5.40 5.52 5.63 5.74 5.84 5.94 6.03 6.12 6.20 6.28 6.34 6.39 6.44 6.48 6.52 6.56 6.58 Total......................|15.59 15.72 15.87 15.96 16.06 16.13 16.30 16.44 16.58 16.70 16.83 16.94 17.05 17.16 17.23 17.28 17.31 17.34 17.38 17.41 17.41 17.41 + Non-Marketed Renewable Fuels + Solar ........................| .02 .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 Total.......................| .02 .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Key Indicators and Consumption |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Key Indicators + + Value of Gross Output(bill.87$) + Manufacturing................| 3245 3324 3410 3494 3581 3690 3801 3914 4021 4124 4222 4318 4408 4484 4545 4592 4646 4702 4770 4829 4901 4957 Nonmanufacturing.............| 825 835 849 861 869 881 897 913 928 943 956 969 981 993 1003 1011 1019 1027 1038 1047 1056 1062 Total......................| 4070 4159 4259 4355 4450 4571 4698 4827 4950 5068 5178 5287 5389 5477 5549 5603 5665 5729 5808 5876 5957 6019 + Energy Prices (1996$ / mmBtu) + Electricity..................|12.97 12.68 12.48 12.34 12.26 12.09 11.93 11.79 11.69 11.57 11.49 11.41 11.14 10.92 10.85 10.76 10.59 10.50 10.43 10.35 10.27 10.26 Natural Gas..................| 2.75 2.73 2.76 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.77 2.80 2.84 2.87 2.90 2.93 2.95 2.97 2.97 2.99 3.00 3.02 3.04 3.08 3.11 3.17 Steam Coal...................| 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.30 Residual Oil.................| 2.69 2.70 2.74 2.74 2.80 2.80 2.83 2.77 2.94 2.99 2.94 3.02 3.00 2.94 3.10 3.20 3.15 3.20 3.21 3.27 3.31 3.35 Distillate Oil...............| 5.21 5.24 5.32 5.35 5.43 5.49 5.56 5.51 5.67 5.69 5.73 5.74 5.75 5.69 5.85 5.91 5.88 5.90 5.94 6.02 6.05 6.07 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| 5.92 5.98 6.09 6.17 6.26 6.38 6.60 6.54 6.71 6.70 6.66 6.76 6.74 6.61 6.59 6.66 6.64 6.81 6.71 6.78 6.73 6.81 Motor Gasoline...............| 8.26 8.46 8.55 8.61 8.68 8.75 8.91 8.89 9.08 9.07 9.10 9.17 9.22 9.22 9.34 9.42 9.40 9.50 9.45 9.49 9.53 9.56 Metallurgical Coal...........| 1.77 1.76 1.74 1.73 1.73 1.72 1.71 1.70 1.70 1.69 1.69 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.66 + Energy Consumption + + Consumption (quad. Btu/ year).. + Purchased Electricity........| 3.65 3.69 3.78 3.85 3.90 3.98 4.05 4.12 4.20 4.26 4.32 4.37 4.45 4.50 4.53 4.55 4.58 4.61 4.65 4.68 4.72 4.75 Natural Gas .................|10.89 10.94 10.94 10.99 11.01 11.05 11.16 11.26 11.39 11.48 11.57 11.67 11.74 11.74 11.81 11.79 11.77 11.75 11.83 11.81 11.82 11.80 Steam Coal...................| 1.55 1.56 1.60 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.79 Metallurgical Coal and Coke..| .88 .86 .85 .84 .83 .82 .81 .80 .79 .79 .78 .77 .76 .75 .75 .74 .73 .72 .71 .71 .70 .69 Residual Fuel................| .35 .35 .35 .34 .34 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .35 .36 .35 .35 .34 .34 .36 .35 .35 .34 .35 Distillate...................| 1.19 1.21 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.56 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| 2.11 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 2.25 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.37 2.40 2.42 2.43 2.44 2.44 2.45 2.45 2.46 2.46 2.47 2.47 Petrochemical Feedstocks.....| 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.51 Other Petroleum .............| 4.52 4.55 4.58 4.66 4.70 4.75 4.83 4.92 4.95 5.00 5.06 5.09 5.09 5.22 5.19 5.23 5.31 5.33 5.31 5.35 5.40 5.36 Renewables ..................| 1.93 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.04 2.07 2.11 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.22 2.25 2.27 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.34 2.34 Delivered Energy...........|28.36 28.57 28.80 29.13 29.32 29.61 29.97 30.36 30.69 31.02 31.33 31.58 31.81 32.04 32.13 32.18 32.27 32.33 32.44 32.51 32.63 32.62 Electricity Related Losses...| 8.12 8.14 8.29 8.35 8.38 8.41 8.53 8.63 8.75 8.81 8.88 8.92 8.98 9.01 8.98 8.92 8.88 8.85 8.87 8.89 8.93 8.93 Total......................|36.48 36.71 37.09 37.48 37.70 38.02 38.50 38.99 39.44 39.83 40.21 40.50 40.79 41.05 41.11 41.10 41.15 41.17 41.30 41.40 41.56 41.55 + Consumption / Unit of Output.. + (thousand Btu / 1987 dollar) + Purchased Electricity........| .90 .89 .89 .88 .88 .87 .86 .85 .85 .84 .83 .83 .83 .82 .82 .81 .81 .80 .80 .80 .79 .79 Natural Gas .................| 2.68 2.63 2.57 2.52 2.48 2.42 2.37 2.33 2.30 2.27 2.24 2.21 2.18 2.14 2.13 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.04 2.01 1.98 1.96 Steam Coal...................| .38 .38 .37 .37 .37 .37 .36 .36 .35 .34 .34 .34 .33 .33 .32 .32 .31 .31 .31 .30 .30 .30 Metallurgical Coal and Coke..| .22 .21 .20 .19 .19 .18 .17 .17 .16 .16 .15 .15 .14 .14 .13 .13 .13 .13 .12 .12 .12 .11 Residual Fuel................| .09 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 Distillate...................| .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .28 .28 .28 .28 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .26 .26 .26 .26 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| .52 .51 .51 .50 .49 .49 .48 .47 .47 .46 .46 .45 .45 .44 .44 .44 .43 .43 .42 .42 .41 .41 Petrochemical Feedstocks.....| .32 .31 .31 .31 .30 .30 .29 .29 .29 .28 .28 .28 .27 .27 .27 .27 .26 .26 .26 .26 .25 .25 Other Petroleum .............| 1.11 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.00 .99 .98 .96 .94 .95 .94 .93 .94 .93 .91 .91 .91 .89 Renewables ..................| .47 .47 .47 .46 .46 .45 .45 .44 .44 .43 .43 .42 .42 .42 .41 .41 .41 .40 .40 .40 .39 .39 Delivered Energy...........| 6.97 6.87 6.76 6.69 6.59 6.48 6.38 6.29 6.20 6.12 6.05 5.97 5.90 5.85 5.79 5.74 5.70 5.64 5.59 5.53 5.48 5.42 Electricity Related Losses...| 1.99 1.96 1.95 1.92 1.88 1.84 1.82 1.79 1.77 1.74 1.71 1.69 1.67 1.64 1.62 1.59 1.57 1.54 1.53 1.51 1.50 1.48 Total......................| 8.96 8.83 8.71 8.61 8.47 8.32 8.20 8.08 7.97 7.86 7.76 7.66 7.57 7.49 7.41 7.34 7.26 7.19 7.11 7.05 6.98 6.90 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Key Indicators and Consumption |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Key Indicators + Level of Travel (billions) + Light-Duty Veh.<8500 lbs.(VMT).| 2423 2454 2495 2536 2576 2620 2665 2713 2758 2805 2849 2892 2930 2968 3005 3042 3077 3108 3144 3176 3209 3242 Commercial Light Trucks(VMT) ..| 71 72 74 75 76 78 80 81 83 84 86 87 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 Freight Trucks >10000 lbs.(VMT)| 184 188 194 199 203 207 212 217 221 225 229 232 235 238 240 241 243 244 246 248 249 250 Air (seat miles demanded)......| 1180 1230 1286 1341 1399 1459 1518 1594 1654 1719 1790 1855 1908 1971 2023 2081 2139 2198 2252 2313 2365 2416 Rail (ton miles traveled)......| 1322 1334 1355 1375 1391 1410 1432 1454 1476 1497 1515 1533 1548 1561 1571 1576 1584 1591 1602 1610 1618 1623 Marine (ton miles traveled)....| 810 815 827 837 846 856 868 880 892 904 914 923 931 938 943 946 949 952 959 962 966 967 + Energy Efficiency Indicators + New Car MPG ....................| 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 New Light Truck MPG ............| 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.1 Light-Duty Fleet MPG ...........| 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.2 New Comm. Light Truck (MPG) ....| 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.6 Stock Comm. Light Truck(MPG) ...| 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 Aircraft Eff.(seat miles/gallon)| 51.8 52.1 52.5 52.9 53.2 53.6 53.9 54.3 54.7 55.0 55.4 55.7 56.0 56.4 56.7 57.0 57.4 57.7 58.0 58.3 58.7 59.0 Freight Truck Efficiency MPG....| 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 Rail Eff.(ton miles/thous. Btu).| 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Domestic Shipping Efficiency + (ton miles per thousand Btu...| 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 + Energy Use by Mode(quad. Btu/yr) + Light-Duty Vehicles............|14.78 15.04 15.35 15.65 15.92 16.20 16.48 16.77 17.03 17.28 17.53 17.76 17.92 18.08 18.24 18.40 18.55 18.66 18.81 18.94 19.07 19.20 Commercial Light Trucks .......| .61 .62 .63 .64 .65 .66 .67 .68 .69 .71 .72 .73 .74 .74 .75 .76 .76 .77 .78 .78 .79 .79 Freight Trucks.................| 4.48 4.54 4.64 4.73 4.80 4.90 4.99 5.07 5.14 5.21 5.27 5.32 5.36 5.41 5.44 5.45 5.47 5.48 5.52 5.54 5.56 5.58 Air............................| 3.77 3.87 3.99 4.11 4.24 4.38 4.52 4.69 4.83 4.97 5.13 5.27 5.39 5.52 5.62 5.73 5.84 5.96 6.06 6.17 6.26 6.35 Rail...........................| .56 .57 .57 .58 .58 .59 .59 .60 .61 .61 .62 .62 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 Marine.........................| 1.47 1.51 1.54 1.58 1.62 1.66 1.71 1.75 1.79 1.83 1.87 1.91 1.95 1.99 2.02 2.05 2.09 2.12 2.15 2.19 2.22 2.25 Pipeline Fuel..................| .81 .80 .82 .81 .84 .83 .85 .86 .89 .90 .93 .95 .94 .97 .97 .96 .99 .99 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.03 Other .........................| .26 .27 .27 .28 .28 .28 .29 .29 .30 .30 .31 .31 .31 .32 .32 .32 .32 .33 .33 .33 .33 .33 Total.........................|26.66 27.14 27.74 28.30 28.85 29.40 29.97 30.61 31.15 31.71 32.26 32.77 33.12 33.54 33.87 34.20 34.54 34.83 35.16 35.48 35.76 36.04 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Generation by Fuel Type + Electric Generators .. + Coal.........................| 1876 1903 1951 1954 1968 1980 2007 2032 2055 2067 2074 2085 2114 2123 2136 2170 2190 2208 2223 2249 2261 2265 Petroleum....................| 60 54 52 49 39 35 37 37 34 34 36 35 36 37 35 32 33 32 32 32 31 32 Natural Gas..................| 382 419 457 501 565 625 671 712 758 817 870 920 964 1016 1070 1113 1171 1213 1281 1315 1356 1389 Nuclear Power................| 689 689 680 685 670 658 643 634 626 612 604 596 584 575 553 520 480 461 421 398 387 383 Pumped Storage...............| -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 Renewable Sources ...........| 366 370 372 373 374 375 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 388 388 389 392 393 393 Total......................| 3370 3432 3508 3558 3613 3670 3732 3790 3849 3907 3961 4015 4078 4132 4177 4217 4258 4299 4343 4382 4424 4459 Non-Utility Gen. for Own Use.| 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 + Cogenerators .. + Coal.........................| 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 Petroleum....................| 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Natural Gas..................| 182 184 186 187 189 190 192 194 195 197 199 201 202 204 204 202 200 199 198 196 195 194 Other Gaseous Fuels .........| 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Renewable ...................| 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 42 42 42 Other .......................| 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 Total......................| 277 278 281 283 285 287 289 291 293 295 297 299 301 302 303 301 299 297 295 294 293 291 Sales to Utilities...........| 123 124 124 124 125 125 125 126 126 126 127 127 127 128 128 127 127 127 127 127 126 126 Generation for Own Use.......| 153 155 157 159 160 162 163 165 167 169 171 172 174 175 175 173 172 170 169 167 166 165 + Net Imports ...................| 37 39 38 39 35 35 33 33 33 31 32 30 29 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 + Electricity Sales by Sector + Residential....................| 1127 1164 1195 1210 1226 1243 1258 1276 1293 1315 1331 1350 1372 1396 1412 1431 1449 1472 1487 1506 1524 1548 Commercial.....................| 1038 1053 1067 1081 1095 1110 1125 1140 1155 1170 1185 1200 1215 1231 1244 1256 1268 1278 1287 1294 1299 1304 Industrial.....................| 1071 1083 1107 1127 1143 1166 1186 1207 1230 1248 1266 1282 1303 1319 1328 1334 1343 1350 1362 1372 1385 1392 Transportation.................| 18 19 20 20 25 29 32 35 38 41 43 46 48 50 52 54 55 57 59 61 62 64 Total........................| 3255 3318 3388 3438 3488 3546 3601 3658 3716 3775 3825 3877 3939 3996 4035 4075 4115 4158 4195 4232 4271 4308 + End-Use Prices(1996 cents/kwh).. + Residential....................| 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 Commercial.....................| 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 Industrial.....................| 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 Transportation.................| 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 All Sectors Average..........| 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Continued) (Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Price Components(1996 cents/kwh) + Capital Component..............| 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Fuel Component.................| 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 O&M Component..................| 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Wholesale Power Cost...........| .5 .6 .6 .7 .8 .9 .9 .9 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Total........................| 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 9. Electricity Generating Capability (Thousand Megawatts) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Net Summer Capability 1/ |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Electric Generators .. + + Capability + Coal Steam...................|298.7 296.8 299.1 296.4 299.2 300.6 302.1 304.4 304.7 304.7 304.6 304.6 307.1 307.9 309.3 313.3 316.0 318.1 319.5 322.3 323.3 323.6 Other Fossil Steam ..........|128.0 121.3 116.8 112.7 106.4 105.3 103.6 103.2 102.6 102.2 101.9 101.0 100.2 99.7 98.5 97.7 97.1 96.9 96.4 96.2 96.2 96.0 Combined Cycle...............| 16.6 27.7 31.9 41.6 49.8 65.4 71.3 79.0 84.1 90.1 97.4 106.5 115.3 123.2 132.7 143.5 154.9 164.6 172.0 177.1 181.6 186.5 Combustion Turbine/Diesel....|137.4 140.4 144.2 146.6 165.2 170.7 176.2 177.9 179.3 184.0 188.7 191.4 195.0 198.3 199.9 204.8 210.1 211.7 213.4 215.0 219.1 221.9 Nuclear Power................| 97.0 95.6 94.8 92.6 91.2 89.3 86.8 85.7 83.9 83.4 82.1 80.4 80.4 78.1 72.3 65.8 63.9 57.7 54.9 52.4 52.4 49.2 Pumped Storage...............| 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 Fuel Cells...................| .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Renewable Sources ...........| 91.1 91.3 91.8 92.1 92.3 92.6 92.9 93.0 93.1 93.3 93.4 93.6 93.8 94.0 94.2 94.3 94.7 94.8 94.9 95.3 95.5 95.7 Total......................|788.7 792.8 798.5 801.8 824.0 843.7 852.7 863.0 867.5 877.6 888.0 897.3 911.6 921.1 926.8 939.1 956.7 963.4 971.0 978.2 987.9 992.8 + Cumulative Planned Additions .. + Coal Steam...................| 2.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Other Fossil Steam ..........| .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 Combined Cycle...............| 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Combustion Turbine/Diesel....| 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 Nuclear Power................| 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Pumped Storage...............| 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Fuel Cells...................| .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Renewable Sources ...........| 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Total......................| 15.5 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 + Cumulative Unplanned Additions.. + Coal Steam...................| .0 .0 4.6 6.0 9.7 11.5 13.3 14.6 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.9 20.2 21.4 23.9 28.7 32.1 34.7 38.4 41.9 43.4 45.4 Other Fossil Steam ..........| .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Combined Cycle...............| .0 11.1 15.3 25.0 33.2 48.8 54.7 62.4 67.3 73.3 80.6 89.7 98.5 106.4 115.9 126.7 138.1 147.7 155.2 160.3 164.7 169.7 Combustion Turbine/Diesel....| 79.7 82.7 86.7 89.3 108.1 113.5 119.1 120.9 122.3 126.9 131.7 134.6 138.4 142.0 144.0 149.2 154.5 156.0 157.8 159.4 163.5 166.3 Nuclear Power................| .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Pumped Storage...............| .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Fuel Cells...................| .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Renewable Sources ...........| .6 .7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.4 Total......................| 80.3 94.4 107.7 121.5 152.4 175.6 189.1 200.0 207.1 218.3 230.9 244.0 260.1 273.0 287.4 308.3 328.9 342.8 355.8 366.4 376.7 386.7 + Cumulative Total Additions.....| 95.7 110.8 124.2 138.1 168.9 192.1 205.6 218.2 225.5 236.8 249.4 262.5 278.6 291.5 305.9 326.8 347.4 361.3 374.3 384.9 395.2 405.2 + Cumulative Retirements ........| 35.0 45.9 52.3 63.2 72.0 75.5 80.1 82.4 85.2 86.5 88.6 92.4 94.2 97.6 106.3 114.1 117.1 124.3 129.7 133.0 133.7 138.8 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 9. Electricity Generating Capability (Continued) (Thousand Megawatts) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Net Summer Capability 1/ |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Cogenerators .. + + Capability + Coal.........................| 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 Petroleum....................| 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Natural Gas..................| 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.0 32.3 32.5 32.7 32.9 33.1 33.2 32.9 32.7 32.5 32.3 32.2 32.1 31.9 Other Gaseous Fuels..........| 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Renewables ..................| 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 Other........................| .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Total.....................| 46.1 46.4 46.7 47.1 47.3 47.5 47.9 48.2 48.5 48.8 49.1 49.3 49.6 49.8 49.8 49.5 49.3 49.1 48.9 48.7 48.5 48.3 + Cumulative Additions ...........| 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.4 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 10. Electricity Trade (Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Electricity Trade |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Interregional Electricity Trade + + Gross Domestic Firm Power Sales.|159.9 149.3 143.4 142.7 141.4 141.6 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 Gross Domestic Economy Sales....| 84.6 74.5 70.6 67.8 74.2 67.7 67.7 63.6 66.9 69.0 74.9 78.3 75.0 78.1 80.2 82.0 79.7 84.5 82.8 82.0 84.0 86.6 Gross Domestic Trade...........|244.6 223.9 214.0 210.5 215.5 209.4 207.0 202.9 206.1 208.2 214.1 217.5 214.2 217.3 219.4 221.2 218.9 223.8 222.0 221.2 223.3 225.8 + Gross Domestic Firm Power Sales + (million 1996 dollars).........| 7425 6932 6656 6623 6563 6576 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 6463 Gross Domestic Economy Sales + (million 1996 dollars).........| 1844 1514 1510 1470 1597 1449 1447 1368 1476 1535 1701 1748 1690 1726 1782 1794 1713 1804 1771 1758 1844 1906 Gross Domestic Sales + (million 1996 dollars).......| 9269 8446 8165 8093 8160 8025 7910 7831 7939 7998 8164 8211 8153 8189 8245 8257 8176 8267 8234 8220 8306 8368 + International Electricity. Trade + + Firm Power Imp. From Can.&Mex ..| 32.1 32.0 24.0 23.8 23.8 22.2 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 Economy Imp. From Canada&Mex. ..| 20.4 22.2 29.3 29.8 31.6 33.1 35.7 35.5 35.9 33.9 34.6 33.6 32.7 31.9 30.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 Gross Imp. From Canada &Mex. ..| 52.4 54.2 53.2 53.6 55.3 55.3 53.4 53.3 53.7 51.7 52.4 51.4 50.5 49.6 48.5 47.7 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 + Firm Power Exports To Canada&Mex| 8.8 8.3 8.3 8.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 Economy Exports To Canada &Mex..| 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 Gross Exports To Canada & Mex..| 15.1 14.7 14.8 15.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 11. Petroleum Supply and Disposition Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply and Disposition |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Crude Oil + Domestic Crude Production ...| 6.28 6.17 6.08 6.01 5.94 5.88 5.82 5.77 5.72 5.67 5.62 5.57 5.52 5.47 5.41 5.32 5.24 5.17 5.10 5.03 4.98 4.92 Alaska.....................| 1.17 1.13 1.09 1.05 1.02 .98 .93 .90 .86 .82 .78 .75 .71 .68 .65 .62 .60 .57 .55 .52 .50 .48 Lower 48 States............| 5.10 5.04 4.99 4.95 4.93 4.90 4.89 4.87 4.86 4.84 4.83 4.82 4.81 4.79 4.76 4.70 4.64 4.60 4.55 4.51 4.48 4.44 Net Imports..................| 8.50 8.75 9.03 9.46 9.58 9.95 10.14 10.31 10.42 10.49 10.55 10.67 10.75 10.84 10.98 11.11 11.22 11.34 11.44 11.53 11.59 11.65 Other Crude Supply ..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Crude Supply.............|14.78 14.92 15.11 15.47 15.52 15.83 15.96 16.08 16.13 16.16 16.17 16.24 16.28 16.31 16.38 16.42 16.46 16.51 16.54 16.56 16.57 16.58 + Natural Gas Plant Liquids......| 1.88 1.87 1.89 1.92 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.06 2.10 2.15 2.19 2.24 2.25 2.29 2.32 2.33 2.35 2.37 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 + Other Inputs ..................| .29 .32 .31 .29 .29 .29 .29 .28 .28 .27 .26 .25 .25 .22 .23 .23 .22 .22 .22 .21 .21 .20 Refinery Processing Gain ......| .87 .86 .87 .88 .88 .88 .89 .87 .89 .89 .89 .89 .86 .86 .85 .87 .87 .85 .88 .87 .85 .82 + Net Product Imports ...........| 1.51 1.42 1.59 1.64 1.75 1.82 1.96 2.17 2.29 2.53 2.90 3.00 3.18 3.46 3.38 3.54 3.70 3.74 3.87 4.02 4.18 4.33 + Total Primary Supply ..........|19.33 19.39 19.78 20.20 20.41 20.81 21.12 21.46 21.69 21.99 22.41 22.63 22.82 23.14 23.16 23.39 23.60 23.70 23.91 24.09 24.27 24.40 + Refined Petrol. Products Supp. + Motor Gasoline ..............| 8.39 8.52 8.67 8.82 8.94 9.06 9.18 9.31 9.43 9.54 9.65 9.75 9.82 9.89 9.95 10.03 10.10 10.14 10.21 10.27 10.33 10.39 Jet Fuel ....................| 1.80 1.85 1.91 1.97 2.03 2.10 2.16 2.25 2.31 2.38 2.46 2.53 2.58 2.64 2.69 2.74 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 2.99 3.03 Distillate Fuel .............| 3.57 3.61 3.68 3.74 3.78 3.83 3.88 3.93 3.97 4.02 4.06 4.09 4.13 4.15 4.17 4.17 4.19 4.20 4.22 4.23 4.24 4.25 Residual Fuel................| .82 .81 .82 .82 .79 .79 .81 .83 .83 .84 .87 .88 .90 .92 .92 .92 .93 .95 .95 .97 .97 .99 Other .......................| 4.77 4.82 4.87 4.94 4.98 5.04 5.11 5.21 5.26 5.33 5.40 5.45 5.49 5.57 5.57 5.60 5.64 5.67 5.67 5.69 5.73 5.72 Total......................|19.36 19.62 19.94 20.27 20.52 20.81 21.15 21.53 21.81 22.12 22.44 22.70 22.91 23.17 23.29 23.46 23.65 23.81 23.95 24.11 24.27 24.39 + Refined Petrol. Products Supp. + Residential and Commercial...| 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.08 Industrial ..................| 4.97 5.02 5.07 5.15 5.19 5.25 5.33 5.42 5.47 5.53 5.60 5.65 5.68 5.76 5.75 5.78 5.82 5.84 5.84 5.87 5.90 5.89 Transportation...............|13.02 13.26 13.54 13.81 14.06 14.31 14.57 14.85 15.10 15.34 15.58 15.81 15.97 16.14 16.29 16.45 16.60 16.73 16.88 17.02 17.15 17.27 Electric Generators .........| .27 .24 .23 .22 .17 .15 .16 .16 .15 .15 .16 .16 .16 .16 .15 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 Total......................|19.36 19.62 19.94 20.27 20.52 20.81 21.15 21.53 21.81 22.12 22.44 22.70 22.91 23.17 23.29 23.46 23.65 23.81 23.95 24.11 24.27 24.39 + Discrepancy ...................| -.03 -.23 -.16 -.07 -.11 .00 -.03 -.07 -.12 -.14 -.03 -.08 -.09 -.02 -.13 -.07 -.05 -.11 -.03 -.02 -.01 .01 + World Oil Price (1996 $/bbl)...|18.57 19.11 19.36 19.51 19.79 19.99 20.19 20.22 20.37 20.52 20.66 20.81 20.95 21.10 21.23 21.35 21.48 21.62 21.78 21.94 22.11 22.32 Imp. Share of Product Supplied.| .52 .52 .53 .55 .55 .57 .57 .58 .58 .59 .60 .60 .61 .62 .62 .62 .63 .63 .64 .65 .65 .66 Net Expenditures for Imp. Crude + & Petr.Prod.(billion 96$ /year)|68.71 71.35 75.64 79.91 82.97 87.27 90.49 93.27 96.43 99.7 103.5 106.4 109.1 112.3 114.2 117.3 120.2 122.8 124.5 127.9 130.9 133.5 Domestic Refinery Distill. Cap.| 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 Capacity Utilization Rate (%)..| 93.8 94.1 93.5 94.9 94.4 95.0 95.1 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 12. Petroleum Product Prices (1996 Cents Per Gallon, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Fuel |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + World Oil Price ($/bbl)........|18.57 19.11 19.36 19.51 19.79 19.99 20.19 20.22 20.37 20.52 20.66 20.81 20.95 21.10 21.23 21.35 21.48 21.62 21.78 21.94 22.11 22.32 + Delivered Sector Product Prices + + Residential + Distillate Fuel..............| 98.1 99.2 100.3 100.6 101.2 102.3 103.5 102.8 105.0 104.3 104.6 104.8 104.8 103.6 105.6 105.9 106.0 106.1 105.2 106.2 106.4 107.0 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| 99.0 99.8 100.8 101.6 102.5 103.6 105.4 105.0 106.7 106.9 106.6 107.5 107.3 107.4 106.9 107.4 107.3 108.7 107.4 108.3 108.3 108.5 + Commercial + Distillate Fuel..............| 71.7 72.5 73.6 73.9 74.6 75.6 76.8 76.0 78.2 77.8 78.1 78.3 78.4 77.3 79.3 79.8 79.7 79.9 79.6 80.6 80.9 81.3 Residual Fuel................| 45.0 44.5 45.6 45.3 46.4 45.8 45.7 45.0 47.2 47.8 46.1 47.3 46.5 45.7 47.7 49.7 49.2 50.0 48.9 49.2 50.3 50.9 Residual Fuel($/bbl).........|18.90 18.68 19.14 19.01 19.50 19.24 19.21 18.90 19.82 20.07 19.36 19.85 19.52 19.21 20.05 20.86 20.65 21.00 20.52 20.65 21.11 21.36 + Industrial .. + Distillate Fuel..............| 72.3 72.7 73.8 74.2 75.3 76.2 77.2 76.5 78.7 78.9 79.4 79.6 79.7 78.9 81.1 81.9 81.5 81.8 82.3 83.5 83.9 84.2 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| 51.1 51.6 52.6 53.3 54.0 55.1 57.0 56.4 57.9 57.9 57.5 58.4 58.1 57.0 56.9 57.5 57.3 58.8 57.9 58.5 58.1 58.8 Residual Fuel................| 40.3 40.4 41.0 41.0 41.9 41.9 42.3 41.5 43.9 44.8 44.0 45.2 44.9 44.0 46.4 47.8 47.2 47.8 48.1 48.9 49.6 50.1 Residual Fuel($/bbl).........|16.91 16.98 17.23 17.23 17.61 17.61 17.79 17.44 18.45 18.80 18.50 18.97 18.86 18.50 19.49 20.10 19.80 20.09 20.21 20.54 20.83 21.04 + Transportation + Diesel Fuel (Distillate) ....|118.2 118.4 119.3 119.3 120.1 120.6 121.3 120.0 121.3 120.3 121.0 119.4 119.5 118.5 119.8 119.6 119.3 118.7 118.0 118.5 118.8 118.2 Jet Fuel ....................| 67.5 69.1 70.3 70.8 72.3 73.4 75.3 75.7 77.7 78.3 78.6 79.0 79.4 79.5 80.1 81.3 81.7 81.8 80.8 81.7 82.8 84.6 Motor Gasoline ..............|119.1 121.2 121.9 122.1 122.7 123.1 124.7 124.1 126.1 125.6 125.6 126.0 126.2 125.8 126.7 127.2 126.6 127.4 126.2 126.5 126.7 126.8 Residual Fuel................| 38.3 39.1 40.0 40.3 41.8 42.2 42.7 41.9 44.5 44.9 44.7 46.0 46.1 45.1 46.9 47.4 47.0 47.6 47.5 48.9 49.9 49.7 Residual Fuel($/bbl).........|16.10 16.41 16.79 16.93 17.57 17.73 17.95 17.60 18.70 18.84 18.79 19.32 19.35 18.95 19.70 19.91 19.75 20.00 19.95 20.52 20.97 20.88 + Electric Generators .. + Distillate Fuel..............| 66.5 67.1 68.1 68.4 69.8 70.7 71.6 70.9 73.2 73.2 73.7 73.9 74.2 73.7 75.5 76.1 75.9 76.0 76.3 77.6 78.3 78.2 Residual Fuel................| 43.2 44.2 44.8 45.4 47.5 48.4 48.0 47.4 50.4 51.2 50.1 51.9 51.4 50.8 52.9 54.6 53.9 54.7 54.0 54.8 56.4 56.4 Residual Fuel($/bbl).........|18.14 18.55 18.81 19.08 19.97 20.31 20.15 19.91 21.16 21.49 21.04 21.78 21.58 21.32 22.20 22.94 22.64 22.98 22.67 23.00 23.67 23.70 + Refined Petroleum Prod.Prices.. + Distillate Fuel .............|105.6 106.1 107.2 107.3 108.2 108.9 109.8 108.7 110.3 109.7 110.3 109.2 109.3 108.3 110.0 110.0 109.7 109.3 108.9 109.5 109.9 109.6 Jet Fuel ....................| 67.5 69.1 70.3 70.8 72.3 73.4 75.3 75.7 77.7 78.3 78.6 79.0 79.4 79.5 80.1 81.3 81.7 81.8 80.8 81.7 82.8 84.6 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......| 60.9 61.5 62.6 63.4 64.4 65.6 67.7 67.3 69.0 69.1 68.8 69.8 69.6 68.9 68.8 69.5 69.4 71.0 70.1 70.8 70.5 71.1 Motor Gasoline ..............|118.9 121.0 121.7 121.9 122.5 122.9 124.5 123.9 125.9 125.4 125.4 125.9 126.0 125.6 126.5 127.1 126.4 127.3 126.1 126.4 126.6 126.7 Residual Fuel................| 40.4 40.9 41.6 41.9 43.2 43.4 43.7 42.9 45.4 45.9 45.5 46.7 46.6 45.8 47.7 48.5 48.0 48.6 48.4 49.5 50.6 50.5 Residual Fuel($/bbl).........|16.98 17.19 17.49 17.59 18.13 18.21 18.35 18.02 19.07 19.28 19.10 19.63 19.58 19.22 20.01 20.35 20.15 20.41 20.33 20.80 21.24 21.23 Average......................| 98.3 99.8 100.6 101.0 101.9 102.5 103.8 103.1 105.0 104.7 104.7 104.9 104.9 104.3 105.2 105.8 105.4 105.9 104.9 105.5 105.8 106.0 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 13. Natural Gas Supply and Disposition (Trillion Cubic Feet per Year) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Production + Dry Gas Production ..........|20.35 20.27 20.60 20.94 21.44 21.81 22.25 22.65 23.18 23.75 24.23 24.70 24.97 25.34 25.70 25.85 26.12 26.30 26.81 27.00 27.26 27.44 Supplemental Natural Gas ....| .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .08 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 + Net Imports....................| 3.53 3.84 3.87 3.89 3.94 3.98 4.02 4.06 4.11 4.16 4.22 4.28 4.34 4.42 4.51 4.58 4.64 4.71 4.76 4.81 4.86 4.91 Canada.......................| 3.56 3.86 3.86 3.87 3.87 3.88 3.89 3.91 3.96 4.01 4.07 4.13 4.19 4.27 4.36 4.43 4.50 4.57 4.63 4.68 4.74 4.80 Mexico.......................| -.12 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.14 -.14 -.14 -.14 -.14 -.14 -.15 -.15 -.15 -.15 -.15 -.15 -.15 -.16 -.16 -.17 -.17 Liquefied Natural Gas........| .10 .12 .14 .16 .20 .23 .27 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 + Total Supply...................|23.99 24.23 24.58 24.95 25.49 25.90 26.39 26.83 27.39 28.02 28.53 29.03 29.36 29.81 30.26 30.48 30.81 31.06 31.63 31.87 32.17 32.41 + Consumption by Sector + Residential..................| 5.15 5.20 5.20 5.22 5.25 5.30 5.31 5.34 5.37 5.42 5.43 5.47 5.50 5.56 5.59 5.62 5.66 5.70 5.70 5.73 5.76 5.80 Commercial...................| 3.34 3.37 3.40 3.43 3.46 3.49 3.52 3.54 3.57 3.59 3.62 3.65 3.67 3.69 3.71 3.73 3.74 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 Industrial ..................| 9.23 9.29 9.26 9.30 9.30 9.32 9.39 9.46 9.56 9.62 9.69 9.75 9.79 9.78 9.82 9.79 9.75 9.72 9.77 9.74 9.73 9.70 Electric Generators .........| 3.94 4.05 4.36 4.59 4.99 5.25 5.57 5.82 6.17 6.59 6.92 7.22 7.44 7.75 8.07 8.24 8.52 8.73 9.18 9.39 9.66 9.85 Lease and Plant Fuel ........| 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.56 1.59 1.61 1.63 1.65 1.67 1.68 1.70 1.73 1.74 1.76 1.76 Pipeline Fuel................| .79 .78 .79 .79 .81 .81 .82 .84 .86 .88 .91 .93 .91 .95 .95 .94 .96 .96 .98 .99 .99 1.00 Transportation ..............| .03 .05 .07 .09 .11 .13 .15 .17 .18 .20 .22 .23 .25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 .32 .33 .33 Total......................|23.84 24.08 24.44 24.81 25.33 25.72 26.22 26.65 27.22 27.84 28.35 28.84 29.17 29.62 30.06 30.28 30.61 30.85 31.42 31.66 31.97 32.20 + Discrepancy ...................| .15 .15 .14 .14 .16 .17 .17 .17 .17 .18 .18 .19 .19 .19 .20 .20 .20 .21 .21 .21 .21 .21 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 14. Oil and Gas Supply + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Production and Supply |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Crude Oil + + Lower 48 Aver. Wellhead Price .. + (1996$ per barrel)..............|18.51 19.12 19.53 19.71 20.05 20.30 20.52 20.57 20.67 20.77 21.01 21.08 21.22 20.58 20.87 20.91 21.01 21.23 21.23 21.39 21.61 21.58 + Production(mill. barrels/day) .. + U.S. Total......................| 6.28 6.17 6.08 6.01 5.94 5.88 5.82 5.77 5.72 5.67 5.62 5.57 5.52 5.47 5.41 5.32 5.24 5.17 5.10 5.03 4.98 4.92 Lower 48 Onshore...............| 3.51 3.39 3.30 3.23 3.18 3.15 3.13 3.12 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.17 3.15 3.13 3.11 3.10 3.09 3.10 3.09 Conventional.................| 2.94 2.81 2.71 2.63 2.57 2.51 2.47 2.44 2.41 2.39 2.38 2.36 2.36 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.36 2.38 2.39 2.41 Enhanced Oil Recovery........| .58 .58 .59 .60 .62 .64 .66 .68 .71 .73 .76 .79 .81 .82 .82 .80 .78 .76 .74 .72 .70 .68 Lower 48 Offshore..............| 1.59 1.65 1.69 1.72 1.74 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.67 1.65 1.62 1.59 1.55 1.52 1.48 1.45 1.42 1.38 1.35 Alaska.........................| 1.17 1.13 1.09 1.05 1.02 .98 .93 .90 .86 .82 .78 .75 .71 .68 .65 .62 .60 .57 .55 .52 .50 .48 + L48 End of Yr.Reserve(bill.bbl.)|15.56 15.25 15.05 14.88 14.77 14.71 14.69 14.68 14.71 14.75 14.81 14.87 14.92 14.93 14.90 14.78 14.67 14.59 14.51 14.44 14.39 14.33 + Natural Gas + + Lower 48 Aver. Wellhead Price .. + (1996$ per thousand cubic feet).| 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.21 2.24 2.27 2.31 2.32 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.45 2.48 2.54 + Production (trill. cubic ft.) .. + U.S. Total......................|20.35 20.27 20.60 20.94 21.44 21.81 22.25 22.65 23.18 23.75 24.23 24.70 24.97 25.34 25.70 25.85 26.12 26.30 26.82 27.01 27.26 27.44 Lower 48 Onshore...............|14.09 13.90 14.15 14.32 14.70 14.90 15.30 15.62 16.00 16.53 16.89 17.33 17.71 17.88 18.35 18.49 18.72 18.74 19.08 18.91 19.11 18.99 Associated-Dissolved ........| 1.80 1.69 1.60 1.53 1.47 1.43 1.39 1.36 1.33 1.31 1.28 1.27 1.25 1.24 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 Non-Associated...............|12.28 12.21 12.55 12.79 13.23 13.48 13.91 14.26 14.67 15.22 15.61 16.06 16.46 16.64 17.13 17.27 17.51 17.54 17.89 17.73 17.93 17.81 Conventional...............| 8.60 8.74 8.95 9.23 9.61 9.87 10.18 10.49 10.84 11.18 11.50 11.77 11.96 12.14 12.29 12.34 12.44 12.51 12.57 12.56 12.44 12.32 Unconventional.............| 3.69 3.47 3.60 3.56 3.62 3.60 3.73 3.78 3.83 4.04 4.11 4.30 4.50 4.50 4.84 4.93 5.08 5.03 5.32 5.17 5.49 5.49 Lower 48 Offshore..............| 5.78 5.88 5.95 6.12 6.22 6.38 6.43 6.50 6.63 6.67 6.78 6.81 6.69 6.88 6.77 6.77 6.81 6.96 7.13 7.48 7.53 7.83 Associated-Dissolved ........| .88 .89 .91 .92 .93 .93 .93 .93 .93 .93 .93 .92 .92 .91 .91 .90 .89 .88 .88 .87 .86 .85 Non-Associated...............| 4.90 4.99 5.04 5.20 5.29 5.45 5.49 5.56 5.70 5.74 5.85 5.89 5.77 5.97 5.86 5.88 5.92 6.08 6.25 6.62 6.67 6.98 Alaska.........................| .48 .49 .50 .51 .52 .52 .53 .54 .54 .55 .56 .56 .57 .58 .58 .59 .59 .60 .60 .61 .61 .62 + Lower 48 End of Yr.Reserves(tcf)|169.2 172.0 175.2 178.6 181.7 184.7 187.2 189.6 191.8 193.6 195.1 196.3 197.2 197.6 197.5 197.1 196.3 195.1 193.2 190.9 188.2 185.1 + Supplemental Gas Supplies(tcf)..| .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 .08 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 + Lower 48 Wells (thousands)......|21.85 22.18 22.82 23.54 24.05 24.64 25.30 25.94 26.49 27.09 27.65 28.19 28.39 28.59 28.64 29.03 29.39 29.83 30.35 30.79 31.39 32.04 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 15. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Million Short Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Production .. + Appalachia...................| 480 491 498 501 507 510 506 502 504 507 500 505 503 503 506 506 505 515 520 521 518 513 Interior.....................| 171 183 181 170 172 173 176 181 181 179 174 177 168 169 170 165 167 164 159 162 161 166 West.........................| 477 471 497 505 504 508 525 545 554 562 587 583 613 619 619 640 654 655 660 673 688 697 + East of the Mississippi......| 585 603 600 601 607 610 608 603 603 605 593 602 600 600 604 608 609 615 625 627 624 623 West of the Mississippi......| 543 541 576 576 576 581 599 626 636 644 668 663 685 690 692 703 717 718 714 728 743 754 Total......................| 1128 1145 1176 1176 1183 1191 1207 1229 1239 1249 1261 1265 1284 1290 1296 1311 1326 1334 1339 1355 1367 1376 + Net Imports + Imports.......................| 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Exports.......................| 92 94 97 100 101 103 104 105 107 108 110 112 113 114 116 117 119 121 122 124 126 128 Total........................| -85 -87 -90 -93 -94 -95 -96 -98 -99 -101 -102 -104 -106 -106 -108 -110 -112 -113 -114 -116 -118 -120 + Total Supply ..................| 1043 1058 1086 1084 1089 1096 1111 1131 1140 1148 1159 1161 1178 1184 1188 1201 1215 1221 1224 1239 1249 1256 + Consumption by Sector + Residential and Commercial...| 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 Industrial ..................| 71 71 72 74 75 76 77 78 79 79 80 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 Coke Plants..................| 32 31 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 26 26 26 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 Electric Generators .........| 936 950 977 974 979 985 1000 1018 1030 1035 1046 1049 1067 1071 1075 1090 1103 1109 1114 1128 1139 1147 Total......................| 1044 1058 1087 1084 1090 1097 1112 1130 1142 1148 1160 1162 1180 1184 1188 1203 1215 1221 1225 1239 1250 1257 + Discrepancy and Stock Change ..| -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 + Average Minemouth Price + (1996 dollars per short ton).|17.48 17.45 16.99 16.77 16.61 16.42 16.18 15.81 15.62 15.47 15.08 15.05 14.71 14.49 14.42 14.22 13.99 13.92 13.81 13.67 13.44 13.27 (1996$ per million Btu)......| .82 .82 .80 .79 .78 .77 .76 .75 .74 .73 .72 .72 .70 .69 .69 .68 .67 .66 .66 .65 .64 .64 + Deliv. Price(1996$/short ton).. + Industrial...................|31.32 31.03 30.75 30.50 30.28 30.10 29.92 29.73 29.59 29.48 29.37 29.29 29.21 29.09 29.02 28.98 28.90 28.82 28.69 28.67 28.62 28.57 Coke Plants..................|47.56 47.16 46.74 46.46 46.31 46.17 45.90 45.63 45.49 45.36 45.23 45.10 45.07 44.95 44.92 44.92 44.78 44.76 44.76 44.64 44.63 44.61 Electric Generators + (1996 dollars / short ton).|25.05 24.71 24.35 24.16 23.87 23.59 23.37 22.97 22.73 22.55 22.28 22.09 21.77 21.45 21.22 21.03 20.72 20.49 20.31 20.08 19.80 19.52 (1996 dollars /million Btu)| 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.01 1.00 .99 .98 .97 Average......................|26.16 25.80 25.41 25.21 24.92 24.64 24.40 24.00 23.75 23.57 23.30 23.12 22.80 22.49 22.27 22.06 21.76 21.53 21.35 21.11 20.84 20.56 Exports .....................|38.96 38.37 37.74 37.18 37.00 36.73 36.40 36.03 35.77 35.51 35.27 35.02 34.79 34.42 34.22 34.05 33.75 33.47 33.19 32.95 32.71 32.47 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 16. Renewable Energy Generating Capability and Generation (Thousand Megawatts, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Electricity and Nonelectric |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Electricity + Elect.Generators (excl.cogen) .. + Net Summer Capability(gigawatt) + Conventional Hydropower......|80.27 80.32 80.34 80.42 80.54 80.60 80.65 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 80.71 Geothermal ..................| 3.02 3.02 3.08 3.05 2.94 2.85 2.93 2.87 2.87 2.92 2.92 2.92 2.82 2.88 2.78 2.72 2.87 2.82 2.84 2.95 2.91 2.94 Municipal Solid Waste .......| 3.06 3.11 3.17 3.23 3.30 3.36 3.46 3.55 3.64 3.74 3.83 3.92 4.00 4.07 4.14 4.21 4.26 4.31 4.33 4.36 4.37 4.38 Wood and Other Biomass ......| 1.91 1.91 1.98 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.07 2.18 2.18 2.26 2.26 2.28 2.29 2.32 2.47 2.49 2.50 Solar Thermal................| .36 .36 .39 .39 .39 .40 .40 .40 .41 .45 .46 .46 .47 .48 .49 .50 .51 .52 .53 .54 .55 .56 Solar Photovoltaic...........| .01 .02 .02 .03 .05 .06 .08 .10 .12 .17 .20 .22 .25 .28 .31 .35 .38 .42 .45 .49 .52 .56 Wind ........................| 2.48 2.55 2.87 2.97 3.07 3.26 3.31 3.31 3.31 3.31 3.31 3.33 3.37 3.41 3.48 3.54 3.68 3.70 3.74 3.81 3.94 4.06 Total......................|91.11 91.29 91.84 92.11 92.32 92.56 92.86 92.96 93.09 93.32 93.45 93.64 93.80 94.02 94.18 94.28 94.69 94.76 94.92 95.32 95.50 95.70 + Generation + Conventional Hydropower......|313.0 316.0 316.0 316.4 317.3 317.7 318.2 318.6 318.6 318.6 318.7 318.7 318.7 318.7 318.7 318.7 318.8 318.8 318.8 318.8 318.8 318.8 Geothermal ..................|17.24 17.24 17.69 17.67 17.15 16.78 17.34 17.11 17.15 17.37 17.37 17.64 17.16 17.58 17.12 16.87 17.92 17.92 18.07 18.87 19.06 19.26 Municipal Solid Waste .......|20.42 20.76 21.16 21.59 22.04 22.47 23.14 23.76 24.42 25.07 25.72 26.32 26.88 27.39 27.87 28.30 28.68 29.01 29.18 29.33 29.45 29.52 Wood and Other Biomass ......| 8.96 8.96 9.27 9.48 9.48 9.48 9.48 9.48 9.48 9.48 9.48 9.79 10.57 10.57 11.11 11.11 11.24 11.33 11.55 12.62 12.77 12.81 Solar Thermal................| .92 .92 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.33 1.36 1.39 1.42 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.56 Solar Photovoltaic...........| .04 .05 .07 .09 .13 .16 .20 .25 .30 .48 .54 .60 .68 .75 .83 .92 1.00 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.36 1.45 Wind.........................| 5.50 5.67 6.49 6.73 7.03 7.56 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.76 7.87 8.01 8.22 8.41 8.86 8.93 9.05 9.26 9.72 10.08 Total......................|366.1 369.6 371.7 373.0 374.2 375.2 377.1 378.0 378.7 379.9 380.7 382.0 383.1 384.3 385.2 385.7 387.8 388.5 389.3 391.6 392.7 393.5 + Cogenerators .. + Net Summer Capability(Gigawatt) + Municipal Solid Waste........| .43 .43 .43 .44 .44 .44 .45 .45 .45 .46 .46 .46 .47 .47 .47 .47 .47 .47 .48 .48 .48 .48 Wood and Other Biomass.......| 5.90 5.93 5.96 5.99 6.00 6.02 6.06 6.08 6.10 6.12 6.14 6.14 6.15 6.15 6.13 6.10 6.08 6.06 6.04 6.01 5.99 5.95 Total......................| 6.33 6.36 6.39 6.42 6.44 6.47 6.50 6.53 6.56 6.58 6.60 6.61 6.61 6.62 6.60 6.57 6.56 6.54 6.51 6.48 6.46 6.43 + Generation + Municipal Solid Waste........| 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.19 2.21 2.22 2.24 2.26 2.27 2.28 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.32 2.33 2.34 2.34 2.35 2.35 2.36 2.36 Wood and Other Biomass.......|39.50 39.67 39.85 40.05 40.13 40.28 40.48 40.64 40.77 40.88 40.97 41.00 41.02 41.00 40.85 40.69 40.55 40.39 40.22 40.02 39.86 39.65 Total......................|41.62 41.81 42.01 42.23 42.32 42.49 42.70 42.88 43.02 43.15 43.25 43.29 43.33 43.32 43.18 43.02 42.89 42.74 42.57 42.37 42.22 42.01 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 17. Carbon Emissions by Sector and Source (Million Metric Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Residential + Petroleum....................| 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.0 25.0 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.2 Natural Gas..................| 76.4 77.0 77.0 77.4 77.9 78.5 78.7 79.2 79.6 80.3 80.5 81.1 81.5 82.4 82.8 83.3 83.8 84.5 84.5 85.0 85.3 85.9 Coal.........................| 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Electricity..................|195.7 201.3 208.2 208.9 210.9 212.4 215.9 219.3 222.5 226.0 228.2 230.9 234.6 237.9 240.6 245.0 248.8 252.8 256.7 260.9 264.3 267.5 Total......................|299.4 305.6 312.2 313.2 315.5 317.6 321.0 324.8 328.3 332.6 334.9 338.1 342.2 346.5 349.4 354.2 358.5 363.1 367.0 371.6 375.3 379.0 + Commercial + Petroleum....................| 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 Natural Gas..................| 49.5 49.9 50.3 50.8 51.2 51.7 52.1 52.5 52.9 53.3 53.6 54.0 54.4 54.7 55.0 55.2 55.4 55.5 55.6 55.6 55.6 55.5 Coal.........................| 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Electricity..................|180.3 182.2 185.9 186.5 188.3 189.7 193.1 196.0 198.7 201.1 203.3 205.1 207.9 209.7 212.0 215.1 217.8 219.5 222.2 224.2 225.3 225.5 Total......................|244.8 247.1 251.4 252.4 254.7 256.5 260.4 263.7 266.8 269.6 272.2 274.4 277.5 279.7 282.3 285.6 288.4 290.2 292.9 295.0 295.9 296.0 + Industrial .. + Petroleum....................|102.5 103.3 104.8 106.3 107.0 108.1 109.7 111.8 112.4 113.6 114.9 115.6 116.0 118.1 117.4 118.0 119.3 120.0 119.4 120.0 120.7 120.3 Natural Gas .................|154.7 155.5 155.4 156.2 156.5 157.1 158.5 159.9 161.8 163.1 164.4 165.8 166.7 166.7 167.7 167.5 167.1 166.8 168.0 167.7 167.8 167.5 Coal.........................| 60.9 60.7 61.1 61.6 61.8 62.1 62.3 62.5 62.7 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.1 61.7 61.5 61.3 61.1 61.0 60.7 Electricity..................|186.0 187.3 192.8 194.6 196.7 199.2 203.6 207.5 211.6 214.5 217.2 219.1 222.9 224.7 226.3 228.4 230.6 231.8 235.1 237.8 240.1 240.6 Total......................|504.0 506.7 514.2 518.6 522.0 526.6 534.1 541.7 548.4 554.0 559.3 563.3 568.4 572.2 573.9 576.0 578.7 580.1 583.8 586.7 589.6 589.2 + Transportation + Petroleum....................|493.8 502.4 513.2 523.9 533.3 543.2 552.8 564.0 573.3 583.0 592.4 601.0 607.6 614.9 620.3 626.2 632.3 637.4 643.1 649.0 654.0 658.6 Natural Gas .................| 12.2 12.2 12.8 13.0 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.1 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.6 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.5 19.8 Other .......................| .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .3 .5 .7 .9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Electricity..................| 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.1 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 Total......................|509.1 517.9 529.4 540.6 551.4 562.4 573.3 585.7 596.3 607.0 617.7 627.5 634.6 643.1 649.1 655.5 662.7 668.2 674.7 681.4 686.8 692.1 + Total Carbon Emissions .. + Petroleum....................|635.0 644.4 656.4 668.5 678.6 689.5 700.4 713.7 723.4 734.3 744.9 754.2 761.2 770.7 775.1 781.5 788.9 794.6 799.6 805.9 811.5 815.5 Natural Gas..................|292.8 294.6 295.5 297.4 299.2 301.2 303.7 306.5 309.7 312.7 315.2 318.1 319.7 321.7 323.6 324.1 324.9 325.5 327.2 327.7 328.2 328.7 Coal.........................| 64.5 64.3 64.8 65.2 65.5 65.9 66.0 66.2 66.4 66.5 66.6 66.6 66.6 66.5 66.2 65.9 65.6 65.3 65.2 65.0 64.8 64.5 Other .......................| .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .3 .5 .7 .9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Electricity..................|565.1 574.0 590.4 593.5 600.1 606.2 618.1 628.9 639.4 648.6 656.2 662.9 673.7 680.8 687.8 697.7 706.8 713.9 724.1 733.5 740.5 744.7 Total......................| 1557 1577 1607 1625 1644 1663 1689 1716 1740 1763 1784 1803 1823 1841 1855 1871 1888 1902 1918 1935 1948 1956 + Electric Generators .. + Petroleum....................| 12.8 11.4 10.9 10.4 8.2 7.3 7.7 7.8 7.2 7.1 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.7 7.3 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 Natural Gas..................| 58.0 59.6 64.1 67.6 73.5 77.3 82.0 85.6 90.8 96.9 101.9 106.3 109.5 114.0 118.7 121.3 125.4 128.4 135.1 138.1 142.1 145.0 Coal.........................|494.3 503.0 515.4 515.5 518.5 521.6 528.4 535.5 541.5 544.6 546.7 549.3 556.7 559.0 561.9 569.7 574.5 578.8 582.4 588.7 591.9 593.1 Total......................|565.1 574.0 590.4 593.5 600.1 606.2 618.1 628.9 639.4 648.6 656.2 662.9 673.7 680.8 687.8 697.7 706.8 713.9 724.1 733.5 740.5 744.7 + Total Carbon Emissions .. + Petroleum....................|647.8 655.8 667.3 678.9 686.7 696.8 708.1 721.5 730.5 741.3 752.5 761.5 768.6 778.4 782.4 788.2 795.7 801.3 806.2 812.5 818.0 822.1 Natural Gas..................|350.8 354.2 359.6 365.0 372.7 378.5 385.7 392.1 400.5 409.6 417.1 424.4 429.1 435.7 442.3 445.4 450.3 453.9 462.3 465.8 470.3 473.7 Coal.........................|558.8 567.3 580.2 580.8 584.0 587.4 594.4 601.7 607.9 611.2 613.3 615.9 623.3 625.5 628.1 635.6 640.1 644.1 647.6 653.7 656.7 657.7 Other .......................| .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .3 .5 .7 .9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Total......................| 1557 1577 1607 1625 1644 1663 1689 1716 1740 1763 1784 1803 1823 1841 1855 1871 1888 1902 1918 1935 1948 1956 + Carbon Emissions + (tons per person).............| 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 18. Macroeconomic Indicators (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Indicators |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ GDP Chain-Type Price Index + (1992=1.000)...................|1.179 1.208 1.240 1.273 1.306 1.342 1.379 1.419 1.461 1.505 1.551 1.600 1.654 1.709 1.767 1.828 1.891 1.959 2.028 2.102 2.180 2.262 + Real Gross Domestic Product.....| 7489 7653 7815 7972 8130 8312 8503 8694 8880 9073 9255 9431 9600 9774 9932 10073 10211 10348 10494 10635 10772 10900 Real Consumption................| 5126 5220 5313 5409 5501 5606 5723 5845 5969 6099 6226 6349 6470 6604 6735 6864 6989 7111 7241 7371 7500 7626 Real Investment.................| 1254 1295 1336 1373 1400 1445 1500 1553 1600 1650 1694 1739 1785 1835 1877 1907 1934 1967 2010 2047 2080 2105 Real Government Spending........| 1293 1301 1307 1318 1337 1358 1383 1408 1431 1455 1477 1498 1517 1533 1551 1567 1583 1596 1609 1621 1631 1640 + Real Exports....................| 1089 1189 1292 1398 1513 1631 1746 1861 1977 2093 2212 2332 2450 2558 2656 2750 2849 2948 3048 3149 3250 3352 Real Imports....................| 1292 1366 1442 1532 1623 1726 1847 1973 2101 2236 2374 2514 2658 2807 2964 3123 3283 3446 3618 3794 3973 4153 + Real Disposable Personal Income + (1992 chain-weighted dollars)..| 5502 5595 5702 5809 5919 6047 6182 6321 6461 6603 6742 6884 7016 7150 7290 7430 7560 7685 7819 7948 8083 8217 + Index of Manufacturing Gross + Output (index 1987=1.000)......|1.391 1.425 1.461 1.498 1.535 1.582 1.629 1.678 1.724 1.768 1.810 1.851 1.890 1.922 1.948 1.968 1.992 2.015 2.045 2.070 2.101 2.125 + AA Utility Bond Rate (percent)..| 7.22 7.16 7.09 7.05 7.10 7.15 7.17 7.17 7.20 7.19 7.19 7.21 7.27 7.29 7.37 7.54 7.64 7.77 7.88 7.95 8.10 8.27 + Real Yield on Government 10 Year + Bonds (percent)................| 4.89 4.29 3.92 3.77 3.79 3.84 3.83 3.78 3.74 3.69 3.62 3.58 3.53 3.48 3.51 3.62 3.69 3.77 3.83 3.83 3.89 3.97 Real Utility Bond Rate (percent)| 4.81 4.64 4.48 4.39 4.46 4.45 4.37 4.29 4.24 4.18 4.11 4.05 3.95 3.94 3.97 4.10 4.15 4.21 4.31 4.32 4.40 4.49 + Energy Intensity + (thousand Btu/92 dollar of GDP) + Delivered Energy..............| 9.88 9.79 9.72 9.65 9.58 9.49 9.41 9.34 9.26 9.18 9.11 9.04 8.96 8.89 8.81 8.74 8.68 8.61 8.54 8.48 8.42 8.35 Total Energy..................|13.17 13.05 12.96 12.85 12.72 12.57 12.45 12.35 12.24 12.12 12.01 11.90 11.79 11.69 11.56 11.44 11.34 11.24 11.15 11.06 10.97 10.89 + Consumer Price Ind.(1982-4=1.00)| 1.69 1.75 1.80 1.86 1.92 1.98 2.04 2.11 2.18 2.26 2.34 2.42 2.51 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.02 3.13 3.25 3.38 3.52 + Unemployment Rate (percent).....| 5.20 5.38 5.55 5.69 5.82 5.85 5.79 5.73 5.70 5.61 5.54 5.51 5.53 5.46 5.43 5.48 5.55 5.62 5.63 5.63 5.63 5.66 + Unit Sales Light-Duty Veh.(mill)|15.39 15.24 15.08 15.14 15.15 15.32 15.58 15.83 16.02 16.25 16.46 16.65 16.70 16.87 17.03 17.10 17.15 17.12 17.24 17.38 17.51 17.49 + Millions of People + Pop. w/Armed Forces Overseas..|273.3 275.6 277.9 280.2 282.5 284.8 287.1 289.4 291.8 294.1 296.5 298.9 301.4 303.8 306.3 308.7 311.2 313.7 316.1 318.6 321.0 323.5 Population (aged 16 and over).|210.7 212.8 214.9 217.1 219.2 221.5 223.8 226.2 228.6 230.9 233.2 235.4 237.6 239.7 241.8 243.8 245.8 247.8 249.8 251.7 253.6 255.6 Employment, Non-Agriculture...|126.8 128.1 129.6 131.0 132.3 133.8 135.5 137.4 139.1 140.8 142.4 143.9 145.3 146.5 147.5 148.4 149.2 150.0 150.9 151.7 152.6 153.4 Employment. Manufacturing.....| 18.3 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.2 Labor Force...................|140.5 142.1 143.6 145.0 146.4 148.0 149.6 151.2 152.7 154.0 155.2 156.5 157.6 158.2 158.9 159.6 160.2 160.7 161.1 161.6 162.0 162.4 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 19. International Petroleum Supply and Disposition Summary (Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply and Disposition |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + World Oil Price (1996 $ / bbl)..|18.57 19.11 19.36 19.51 19.79 19.99 20.19 20.22 20.37 20.52 20.66 20.81 20.95 21.10 21.23 21.35 21.48 21.62 21.78 21.94 22.11 22.32 + Production .. + + OECD + U.S. (50 states)..............| 9.22 9.11 9.06 9.00 8.98 8.96 8.96 8.92 8.94 8.94 8.94 8.94 8.89 8.87 8.84 8.78 8.73 8.65 8.65 8.59 8.55 8.48 Canada........................| 2.56 2.55 2.54 2.53 2.51 2.49 2.46 2.49 2.52 2.54 2.57 2.59 2.60 2.61 2.61 2.62 2.62 2.63 2.64 2.64 2.65 2.66 Mexico........................| 3.24 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.23 3.24 3.24 3.26 3.28 3.30 3.32 3.34 3.36 3.38 3.40 3.41 3.43 3.45 3.47 3.49 3.51 3.53 OECD Europe ..................| 6.96 7.07 6.96 6.86 6.76 6.66 6.57 6.39 6.22 6.05 5.89 5.74 5.61 5.48 5.35 5.23 5.11 4.98 4.84 4.72 4.59 4.47 Other OECD....................| .79 .80 .80 .80 .80 .80 .80 .84 .88 .92 .97 1.01 .97 .92 .88 .84 .80 .81 .82 .83 .84 .84 Total OECD..................|22.78 22.74 22.58 22.41 22.28 22.14 22.03 21.90 21.84 21.76 21.68 21.62 21.42 21.25 21.09 20.89 20.70 20.52 20.43 20.27 20.14 19.98 + Developing Countries + Other South & Central America.| 4.01 4.29 4.38 4.46 4.56 4.65 4.75 4.84 4.94 5.03 5.13 5.23 5.38 5.54 5.70 5.86 6.03 6.15 6.28 6.41 6.54 6.68 Pacific Rim...................| 2.51 2.67 2.74 2.81 2.88 2.96 3.04 3.07 3.10 3.13 3.17 3.20 3.21 3.21 3.22 3.22 3.23 3.20 3.17 3.14 3.11 3.08 OPEC..........................|31.70 32.73 34.08 35.66 37.11 38.63 40.19 41.82 43.36 44.99 46.61 48.19 49.72 51.39 52.96 54.65 56.40 58.26 60.08 62.03 64.00 65.98 Other Developing Countries....| 4.46 4.55 4.61 4.67 4.72 4.78 4.84 4.88 4.91 4.94 4.97 5.00 5.07 5.13 5.20 5.26 5.33 5.34 5.35 5.36 5.36 5.38 Total Developing Countries..|42.68 44.25 45.81 47.60 49.28 51.02 52.82 54.60 56.30 58.10 59.88 61.63 63.38 65.27 67.07 68.99 70.98 72.95 74.88 76.93 79.01 81.11 + Eurasia + Former Soviet Union...........| 7.55 7.70 7.96 8.24 8.52 8.82 9.13 9.26 9.40 9.54 9.69 9.83 9.98 10.13 10.28 10.43 10.59 10.75 10.91 11.07 11.24 11.41 Eastern Europe................| .28 .27 .26 .25 .24 .24 .23 .23 .22 .22 .21 .21 .20 .20 .19 .19 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18 China.........................| 3.16 3.14 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.19 3.21 3.23 3.25 3.27 3.30 3.34 3.38 3.42 3.46 3.50 3.54 3.57 3.61 3.65 Total Eurasia...............|10.98 11.10 11.37 11.64 11.93 12.22 12.54 12.68 12.84 12.99 13.15 13.31 13.49 13.67 13.85 14.04 14.23 14.43 14.63 14.83 15.03 15.24 + Total Production...............|76.44 78.09 79.75 81.65 83.48 85.39 87.39 89.18 90.98 92.85 94.72 96.56 98.28 100.2 102.0 103.9 105.9 107.9 109.9 112.0 114.2 116.3 + Consumption + + OECD + U.S. (50 states)..............|19.36 19.62 19.94 20.27 20.51 20.81 21.15 21.53 21.80 22.12 22.44 22.70 22.91 23.17 23.29 23.47 23.66 23.81 23.95 24.11 24.28 24.39 U.S. Territories..............| .29 .30 .31 .32 .32 .33 .35 .35 .36 .36 .38 .38 .39 .40 .40 .41 .42 .43 .43 .44 .45 .46 Canada........................| 1.85 1.87 1.90 1.93 1.96 1.98 2.01 2.04 2.07 2.10 2.12 2.15 2.17 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.28 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.40 2.43 Mexico........................| 2.18 2.25 2.18 2.23 2.28 2.34 2.39 2.46 2.53 2.60 2.67 2.74 2.74 2.80 2.87 2.93 3.00 3.05 3.11 3.16 3.22 3.27 Japan.........................| 6.32 6.46 6.56 6.66 6.74 6.82 6.91 6.93 7.03 7.11 7.19 7.28 7.38 7.48 7.59 7.69 7.80 7.91 8.02 8.13 8.23 8.34 Australia and New Zealand.....| 1.03 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 OECD Europe ..................|14.29 14.36 14.42 14.54 14.63 14.71 14.78 14.86 14.92 14.99 15.05 15.11 15.17 15.23 15.28 15.34 15.40 15.46 15.52 15.58 15.63 15.69 Total OECD..................|45.33 45.91 46.35 46.99 47.51 48.08 48.68 49.29 49.84 50.43 51.03 51.56 51.95 52.48 52.88 53.32 53.80 54.22 54.63 55.06 55.49 55.88 + Developing Countries + Other South & Central America.| 4.47 4.70 4.86 5.03 5.20 5.38 5.56 5.74 5.93 6.12 6.31 6.51 6.69 6.88 7.08 7.28 7.49 7.70 7.92 8.14 8.37 8.61 Pacific Rim...................| 5.16 5.38 5.70 6.03 6.39 6.75 7.13 7.38 7.63 7.90 8.16 8.44 8.74 9.06 9.38 9.72 10.07 10.44 10.81 11.21 11.61 12.03 OPEC..........................| 5.50 5.62 5.75 5.89 6.02 6.16 6.30 6.45 6.59 6.74 6.90 7.06 7.22 7.39 7.56 7.73 7.91 8.09 8.28 8.47 8.66 8.86 Other Developing Countries....| 5.94 6.06 6.27 6.49 6.72 6.95 7.19 7.34 7.48 7.63 7.79 7.94 8.10 8.26 8.42 8.58 8.75 8.93 9.11 9.29 9.47 9.66 Total Developing Countries..|21.07 21.76 22.58 23.44 24.33 25.24 26.19 26.90 27.63 28.39 29.16 29.95 30.75 31.58 32.43 33.31 34.22 35.15 36.11 37.10 38.12 39.16 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 19. International Petroleum Supply and Disposition Summary (Continued) (Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply and Disposition |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Eurasia + Former Soviet Union...........| 4.75 4.88 5.06 5.24 5.42 5.61 5.80 5.98 6.17 6.37 6.55 6.73 6.91 7.09 7.27 7.46 7.65 7.84 8.05 8.25 8.47 8.68 Eastern Europe................| 1.46 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.55 1.59 1.64 1.68 1.73 1.77 1.82 1.87 1.92 1.96 2.02 2.07 2.12 2.18 2.24 China.........................| 4.14 4.39 4.60 4.81 5.04 5.27 5.51 5.76 6.03 6.31 6.60 6.89 7.20 7.52 7.86 8.21 8.58 8.97 9.37 9.79 10.23 10.68 Total Eurasia...............|10.34 10.72 11.11 11.53 11.95 12.37 12.81 13.30 13.80 14.32 14.83 15.35 15.88 16.43 17.00 17.58 18.19 18.83 19.49 20.17 20.87 21.60 + Total Consumption..............|76.74 78.39 80.05 81.95 83.78 85.69 87.69 89.48 91.28 93.15 95.02 96.86 98.58 100.5 102.3 104.2 106.2 108.2 110.2 112.3 114.5 116.6 + Non-OPEC Production.............|44.74 45.36 45.67 45.99 46.37 46.76 47.19 47.36 47.62 47.85 48.10 48.37 48.56 48.80 49.05 49.27 49.52 49.64 49.85 50.00 50.19 50.36 Net Eurasia Exports.............| .64 .38 .25 .11 -.02 -.15 -.28 -.61 -.96 -1.33 -1.68 -2.04 -2.39 -2.76 -3.14 -3.54 -3.96 -4.40 -4.86 -5.34 -5.84 -6.36 OPEC Market Share...............| .41 .42 .43 .44 .44 .45 .46 .47 .48 .48 .49 .50 .51 .51 .52 .53 .53 .54 .55 .55 .56 .57 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 20. Conversion Factors (From Physical units to Million Btus) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Petroleum Products + Asphalt and Road Oil ........|6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 6.636 Butane .......................|4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 4.326 Distillate ...................|5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 5.825 Ethanol ......................|3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 Isobutane ....................|3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 3.974 Jet Fuel. Kerosene ..........|5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 Jet Fuel. Naphtha ...........|5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 5.355 Kerosene .....................|5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 5.670 Liquid Petroleum Gas .........|3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 3.625 Motor Gasoline ...............|5.206 5.206 5.205 5.203 5.203 5.203 5.203 5.203 5.202 5.202 5.202 5.202 5.203 5.203 5.203 5.200 5.200 5.201 5.200 5.200 5.200 5.200 Other Petr. (lubes,av gas) ...|5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 5.800 Pentanes Plus ................|4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 4.620 Petrochem Feedstocks .........|5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 5.630 Petroleum Coke ...............|6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 6.024 Propane ......................|3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 3.836 Residual Fuel ..............|6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 6.287 Still Gas ....................|6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 Natural Gas + Nat. Gas. Util................|1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 Nat. Gas. Nonutil.............|1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 Nat. Gas. Consum/Prod....... .|1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 Nat. Gas. Imports.............|1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 1.022 Coal + Production, EAST MISS. ......|24.73 24.65 24.72 24.73 24.72 24.71 24.70 24.72 24.73 24.75 24.73 24.75 24.72 24.75 24.77 24.75 24.74 24.77 24.75 24.74 24.75 24.72 Production, WEST MISS. ......|17.47 17.50 17.48 17.60 17.61 17.62 17.70 17.68 17.71 17.73 17.68 17.68 17.69 17.68 17.70 17.72 17.67 17.65 17.68 17.65 17.58 17.51 Production, U.S. ............|21.23 21.27 21.18 21.24 21.26 21.25 21.22 21.13 21.12 21.13 21.00 21.04 20.97 20.96 20.99 20.98 20.91 20.94 20.98 20.93 20.85 20.77 Consumption, RES/COM .........|22.97 22.97 22.96 22.96 22.96 22.95 22.95 22.94 22.94 22.93 22.93 22.93 22.92 22.92 22.91 22.91 22.91 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.89 22.89 Consumption, IND. ............|22.02 22.02 22.02 22.01 22.01 22.00 22.00 21.99 21.99 21.99 21.99 21.98 21.98 21.98 21.98 21.98 21.97 21.97 21.97 21.96 21.96 21.96 Consumption, MET. ............|26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 Consumption, EXPORT ..........|25.56 25.50 25.43 25.36 25.41 25.42 25.43 25.44 25.45 25.45 25.46 25.46 25.47 25.44 25.43 25.42 25.40 25.38 25.37 25.35 25.34 25.33 Consumption, UTILITY .........|20.55 20.60 20.51 20.58 20.60 20.59 20.56 20.46 20.44 20.46 20.29 20.34 20.27 20.26 20.30 20.28 20.21 20.24 20.29 20.24 20.15 20.05 Consumption, IMPORT ..........|25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 Electricity + Electricity ..................| 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 3412 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 21. Average Direct Expenditures for Energy per Household by Household Characteristics (1996 Dollars) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Fuel & Household Characteristics|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Total Energy + + Average U.S. Household.........| .00 2089 .00 .00 .00 .00 2102 .00 .00 .00 .00 2097 .00 .00 .00 .00 2049 .00 .00 .00 .00 2025 + Households by Income Quintile + 1st..........................| .00 1293 .00 .00 .00 .00 1287 .00 .00 .00 .00 1275 .00 .00 .00 .00 1242 .00 .00 .00 .00 1229 2nd..........................| .00 1716 .00 .00 .00 .00 1722 .00 .00 .00 .00 1711 .00 .00 .00 .00 1670 .00 .00 .00 .00 1650 3rd..........................| .00 2217 .00 .00 .00 .00 2238 .00 .00 .00 .00 2233 .00 .00 .00 .00 2184 .00 .00 .00 .00 2157 4th..........................| .00 2364 .00 .00 .00 .00 2385 .00 .00 .00 .00 2385 .00 .00 .00 .00 2334 .00 .00 .00 .00 2309 5th..........................| .00 2883 .00 .00 .00 .00 2910 .00 .00 .00 .00 2913 .00 .00 .00 .00 2852 .00 .00 .00 .00 2822 + Households by Census Division + New England..................| .00 2472 .00 .00 .00 .00 2508 .00 .00 .00 .00 2529 .00 .00 .00 .00 2522 .00 .00 .00 .00 2528 Middle Atlantic..............| .00 2220 .00 .00 .00 .00 2234 .00 .00 .00 .00 2244 .00 .00 .00 .00 2221 .00 .00 .00 .00 2236 South Atlantic...............| .00 2129 .00 .00 .00 .00 2153 .00 .00 .00 .00 2139 .00 .00 .00 .00 2097 .00 .00 .00 .00 2070 East North Central...........| .00 2100 .00 .00 .00 .00 2127 .00 .00 .00 .00 2128 .00 .00 .00 .00 2081 .00 .00 .00 .00 2051 East South Central...........| .00 1940 .00 .00 .00 .00 1915 .00 .00 .00 .00 1879 .00 .00 .00 .00 1830 .00 .00 .00 .00 1803 West North Central...........| .00 2369 .00 .00 .00 .00 2352 .00 .00 .00 .00 2308 .00 .00 .00 .00 2247 .00 .00 .00 .00 2215 West South Central...........| .00 2207 .00 .00 .00 .00 2231 .00 .00 .00 .00 2217 .00 .00 .00 .00 2157 .00 .00 .00 .00 2130 Mountain.....................| .00 1891 .00 .00 .00 .00 1926 .00 .00 .00 .00 1918 .00 .00 .00 .00 1863 .00 .00 .00 .00 1823 Pacific......................| .00 1850 .00 .00 .00 .00 1899 .00 .00 .00 .00 1958 .00 .00 .00 .00 1903 .00 .00 .00 .00 1882 + Total Home + + Average U.S. Household.........| .00 1026 .00 .00 .00 .00 986.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 961.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 927.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 920.8 + Households by Income Quintile + 1st..........................| .00 787.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 754.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 732.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 705.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 700.2 2nd..........................| .00 908.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 875.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 852.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 821.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 815.1 3rd..........................| .00 1018 .00 .00 .00 .00 980.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 955.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 920.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 913.9 4th..........................| .00 1108 .00 .00 .00 .00 1067 .00 .00 .00 .00 1041 .00 .00 .00 .00 1005 .00 .00 .00 .00 1000 5th..........................| .00 1309 .00 .00 .00 .00 1259 .00 .00 .00 .00 1228 .00 .00 .00 .00 1187 .00 .00 .00 .00 1181 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 21. Average Direct Expenditures for Energy per Household (Continued) by Household Characteristics (1996 Dollars) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Fuel & Household Characteristics|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Households by Census Division + New England..................| .00 1288 .00 .00 .00 .00 1239 .00 .00 .00 .00 1212 .00 .00 .00 .00 1205 .00 .00 .00 .00 1212 Middle Atlantic..............| .00 1335 .00 .00 .00 .00 1285 .00 .00 .00 .00 1260 .00 .00 .00 .00 1239 .00 .00 .00 .00 1256 South Atlantic...............| .00 1028 .00 .00 .00 .00 994.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 962.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 925.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 915.2 East North Central...........| .00 947.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 917.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 903.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 869.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 863.3 East South Central...........| .00 993.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 940.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 906.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 874.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 866.5 West North Central...........| .00 1090 .00 .00 .00 .00 1028 .00 .00 .00 .00 986.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 945.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 939.0 West South Central...........| .00 1026 .00 .00 .00 .00 1002 .00 .00 .00 .00 980.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 934.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 927.1 Mountain.....................| .00 818.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 813.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 805.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 771.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 759.2 Pacific......................| .00 777.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 760.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 760.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 731.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 727.3 + Electricity + + Average U.S. Household.........| .00 661.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 646.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 637.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 616.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 614.1 + Households by Income Quintile + 1st..........................| .00 488.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 476.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 469.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 453.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 451.5 2nd..........................| .00 570.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 559.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 552.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 534.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 531.4 3rd..........................| .00 683.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 667.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 657.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 635.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 631.9 4th..........................| .00 731.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 715.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 706.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 684.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 682.5 5th..........................| .00 838.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 818.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 808.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 783.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 781.9 + Households by Census Division + New England..................| .00 587.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 565.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 567.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 580.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 594.8 Middle Atlantic..............| .00 642.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 634.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 641.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 640.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 663.7 South Atlantic...............| .00 559.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 551.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 540.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 518.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 506.0 East North Central...........| .00 587.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 578.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 575.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 553.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 542.9 East South Central...........| .00 797.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 759.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 732.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 705.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 698.4 West North Central...........| .00 876.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 826.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 788.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 750.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 743.9 West South Central...........| .00 820.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 805.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 788.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 748.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 740.3 Mountain.....................| .00 543.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 549.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 542.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 519.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 507.5 Pacific......................| .00 518.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 516.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 524.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 507.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 506.3 + Natural Gas + + Average U.S. Household.........| .00 299.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 280.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 267.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 258.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 258.2 + Households by Income Quintile + 1st..........................| .00 254.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 236.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 224.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 216.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 215.2 2nd..........................| .00 283.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 265.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 253.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 244.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 243.7 3rd..........................| .00 266.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 250.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 239.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 231.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 231.4 4th..........................| .00 302.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 283.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 271.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 261.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 262.2 5th..........................| .00 385.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 361.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 346.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 334.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 335.0 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 21. Average Direct Expenditures for Energy per Household (Continued) by Household Characteristics (1996 Dollars) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Fuel & Household Characteristics|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Households by Census Division + New England..................| .00 322.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 307.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 292.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 286.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 294.1 Middle Atlantic..............| .00 475.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 443.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 419.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 408.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 410.0 South Atlantic...............| .00 445.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 421.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 400.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 387.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 390.5 East North Central...........| .00 320.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 302.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 294.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 285.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 291.8 East South Central...........| .00 162.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 152.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 148.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 146.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 146.7 West North Central...........| .00 208.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 196.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 191.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 188.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 189.7 West South Central...........| .00 205.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 196.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 191.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 186.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 186.7 Mountain.....................| .00 269.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 259.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 257.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 247.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 247.0 Pacific......................| .00 245.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 231.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 223.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 212.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 209.8 + Fuel Oil and Kerosene + + Average U.S. Household.........| .00 64.98 .00 .00 .00 .00 60.32 .00 .00 .00 .00 55.91 .00 .00 .00 .00 52.04 .00 .00 .00 .00 48.50 + Households by Income Quintile + 1st..........................| .00 45.40 .00 .00 .00 .00 42.16 .00 .00 .00 .00 38.93 .00 .00 .00 .00 36.07 .00 .00 .00 .00 33.52 2nd..........................| .00 53.78 .00 .00 .00 .00 49.88 .00 .00 .00 .00 46.16 .00 .00 .00 .00 42.88 .00 .00 .00 .00 39.96 3rd..........................| .00 67.79 .00 .00 .00 .00 62.87 .00 .00 .00 .00 58.30 .00 .00 .00 .00 54.34 .00 .00 .00 .00 50.64 4th..........................| .00 73.31 .00 .00 .00 .00 68.12 .00 .00 .00 .00 63.23 .00 .00 .00 .00 58.91 .00 .00 .00 .00 54.98 5th..........................| .00 85.41 .00 .00 .00 .00 79.30 .00 .00 .00 .00 73.70 .00 .00 .00 .00 68.80 .00 .00 .00 .00 64.20 + Households by Census Division + New England..................| .00 378.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 365.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 351.5 .00 .00 .00 .00 336.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 323.4 Middle Atlantic..............| .00 216.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 207.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 198.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 190.7 .00 .00 .00 .00 182.2 South Atlantic...............| .00 23.13 .00 .00 .00 .00 21.84 .00 .00 .00 .00 20.78 .00 .00 .00 .00 19.68 .00 .00 .00 .00 18.68 East North Central...........| .00 40.13 .00 .00 .00 .00 36.70 .00 .00 .00 .00 33.49 .00 .00 .00 .00 30.84 .00 .00 .00 .00 28.51 East South Central...........| .00 33.17 .00 .00 .00 .00 29.11 .00 .00 .00 .00 26.10 .00 .00 .00 .00 23.48 .00 .00 .00 .00 21.36 West North Central...........| .00 5.91 .00 .00 .00 .00 5.77 .00 .00 .00 .00 5.58 .00 .00 .00 .00 5.42 .00 .00 .00 .00 5.38 West South Central...........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Mountain.....................| .00 5.73 .00 .00 .00 .00 5.38 .00 .00 .00 .00 5.13 .00 .00 .00 .00 4.92 .00 .00 .00 .00 4.71 Pacific......................| .00 13.15 .00 .00 .00 .00 12.62 .00 .00 .00 .00 12.11 .00 .00 .00 .00 11.82 .00 .00 .00 .00 11.18 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 21. Average Direct Expenditures for Energy per Household (Continued) by Household Characteristics (1996 Dollars) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Fuel & Household Characteristics|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Motor Gasoline + + Average U.S. Household.........| .00 1063 .00 .00 .00 .00 1116 .00 .00 .00 .00 1136 .00 .00 .00 .00 1122 .00 .00 .00 .00 1105 + Households by Income Quintile + 1st..........................| .00 505.3 .00 .00 .00 .00 532.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 541.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 536.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 528.4 2nd..........................| .00 807.2 .00 .00 .00 .00 846.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 859.0 .00 .00 .00 .00 848.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 835.2 3rd..........................| .00 1199 .00 .00 .00 .00 1257 .00 .00 .00 .00 1278 .00 .00 .00 .00 1263 .00 .00 .00 .00 1243 4th..........................| .00 1256 .00 .00 .00 .00 1319 .00 .00 .00 .00 1344 .00 .00 .00 .00 1329 .00 .00 .00 .00 1310 5th..........................| .00 1574 .00 .00 .00 .00 1651 .00 .00 .00 .00 1685 .00 .00 .00 .00 1665 .00 .00 .00 .00 1641 + Households by Census Division + New England..................| .00 1183 .00 .00 .00 .00 1269 .00 .00 .00 .00 1318 .00 .00 .00 .00 1317 .00 .00 .00 .00 1315 Middle Atlantic..............| .00 885.8 .00 .00 .00 .00 948.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 984.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 981.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 980.1 South Atlantic...............| .00 1101 .00 .00 .00 .00 1159 .00 .00 .00 .00 1177 .00 .00 .00 .00 1171 .00 .00 .00 .00 1155 East North Central...........| .00 1152 .00 .00 .00 .00 1210 .00 .00 .00 .00 1224 .00 .00 .00 .00 1212 .00 .00 .00 .00 1188 East South Central...........| .00 946.1 .00 .00 .00 .00 974.4 .00 .00 .00 .00 971.9 .00 .00 .00 .00 955.6 .00 .00 .00 .00 936.6 West North Central...........| .00 1279 .00 .00 .00 .00 1324 .00 .00 .00 .00 1322 .00 .00 .00 .00 1302 .00 .00 .00 .00 1276 West South Central...........| .00 1181 .00 .00 .00 .00 1229 .00 .00 .00 .00 1237 .00 .00 .00 .00 1222 .00 .00 .00 .00 1203 Mountain.....................| .00 1073 .00 .00 .00 .00 1112 .00 .00 .00 .00 1113 .00 .00 .00 .00 1092 .00 .00 .00 .00 1064 Pacific......................| .00 1073 .00 .00 .00 .00 1139 .00 .00 .00 .00 1198 .00 .00 .00 .00 1171 .00 .00 .00 .00 1155 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 22. Natural Gas Prices, Margins and Revenues (1996 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Prices, Margins, and Revenue |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Source Price + Aver. Lower 48 Well. Price..| 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.21 2.24 2.27 2.31 2.32 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.45 2.48 2.54 Average Import Price........| 1.94 1.96 2.02 2.04 2.07 2.07 2.14 2.21 2.28 2.34 2.37 2.32 2.38 2.37 2.36 2.39 2.40 2.43 2.47 2.49 2.52 2.56 Average .................| 2.08 2.08 2.10 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.15 2.18 2.22 2.26 2.29 2.31 2.33 2.35 2.36 2.37 2.38 2.39 2.42 2.45 2.49 2.54 + Delivered Prices + Residential.................| 5.97 5.93 5.94 5.86 5.81 5.75 5.71 5.68 5.67 5.64 5.62 5.58 5.58 5.52 5.49 5.49 5.47 5.47 5.51 5.52 5.56 5.60 Commercial..................| 5.04 5.02 5.02 4.96 4.92 4.88 4.85 4.83 4.84 4.83 4.82 4.79 4.80 4.76 4.75 4.76 4.76 4.77 4.80 4.82 4.87 4.91 Industrial .................| 2.83 2.81 2.84 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.85 2.88 2.92 2.95 2.98 3.01 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.08 3.09 3.11 3.13 3.17 3.20 3.26 Electric Generators ........| 2.49 2.54 2.59 2.61 2.61 2.65 2.69 2.73 2.79 2.83 2.88 2.91 2.95 2.97 2.99 3.02 3.04 3.07 3.10 3.13 3.17 3.22 Transportation .............| 5.68 5.62 5.60 5.58 5.62 5.73 5.89 6.08 6.32 6.50 6.66 6.79 6.93 7.00 7.11 7.20 7.26 7.34 7.40 7.46 7.53 7.61 Average .................| 3.86 3.85 3.86 3.82 3.79 3.77 3.76 3.77 3.79 3.79 3.80 3.80 3.82 3.81 3.81 3.82 3.83 3.84 3.86 3.89 3.92 3.97 + Trans.&Distr.Margins by Sect... + Residential.................| 3.89 3.85 3.84 3.75 3.70 3.63 3.56 3.50 3.46 3.38 3.34 3.27 3.25 3.17 3.14 3.12 3.09 3.08 3.09 3.07 3.07 3.05 Commercial..................| 2.96 2.93 2.92 2.85 2.81 2.76 2.70 2.65 2.62 2.57 2.53 2.48 2.47 2.42 2.40 2.39 2.38 2.37 2.38 2.37 2.38 2.37 Industrial .................| .75 .73 .75 .72 .72 .71 .70 .70 .70 .69 .69 .71 .71 .71 .70 .71 .70 .71 .71 .71 .71 .71 Electric Generators ........| .40 .45 .49 .51 .50 .53 .54 .56 .57 .58 .59 .60 .62 .62 .64 .65 .66 .67 .68 .68 .68 .68 Transportation .............| 3.60 3.54 3.50 3.47 3.51 3.61 3.74 3.90 4.10 4.24 4.37 4.48 4.60 4.65 4.75 4.83 4.88 4.95 4.98 5.00 5.04 5.06 Average .................| 1.78 1.76 1.76 1.71 1.68 1.65 1.61 1.59 1.57 1.53 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.45 1.44 1.45 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.43 + Transmission & Distr. Revenue + (billion 1996 dollars) + Residential.................|20.07 20.00 19.96 19.60 19.42 19.23 18.93 18.70 18.56 18.33 18.13 17.91 17.88 17.64 17.54 17.54 17.48 17.56 17.62 17.61 17.70 17.70 Commercial..................| 9.88 9.88 9.92 9.77 9.71 9.62 9.50 9.40 9.35 9.23 9.16 9.05 9.08 8.93 8.89 8.90 8.88 8.90 8.95 8.91 8.92 8.87 Industrial .................| 6.93 6.75 6.90 6.74 6.70 6.62 6.60 6.63 6.70 6.65 6.71 6.89 6.93 6.92 6.90 6.95 6.87 6.92 6.89 6.96 6.92 6.92 Electric Generators ........| 1.59 1.83 2.13 2.33 2.49 2.80 3.00 3.24 3.52 3.79 4.07 4.32 4.61 4.82 5.13 5.35 5.63 5.87 6.20 6.38 6.58 6.69 Transportation .............| .11 .16 .24 .31 .38 .47 .56 .65 .75 .85 .94 1.04 1.13 1.20 1.29 1.36 1.43 1.49 1.54 1.59 1.64 1.68 Total....................|38.58 38.64 39.15 38.76 38.69 38.74 38.60 38.62 38.88 38.84 39.01 39.21 39.63 39.52 39.75 40.11 40.29 40.74 41.21 41.45 41.77 41.87 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 23. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Crude Oil Equivalency Summary (Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Production + Crude Oil & Lease Condensate.| 6.28 6.17 6.08 6.01 5.94 5.88 5.82 5.77 5.72 5.67 5.62 5.57 5.52 5.47 5.41 5.32 5.24 5.17 5.10 5.03 4.98 4.92 Natural Gas Plant Liquids....| 1.13 1.13 1.15 1.16 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.33 1.36 1.39 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.55 Dry Natural Gas .............| 9.88 9.82 10.00 10.17 10.41 10.56 10.81 11.00 11.25 11.50 11.77 11.99 12.12 12.27 12.48 12.55 12.68 12.74 13.02 13.11 13.24 13.29 Coal.........................|11.31 11.47 11.76 11.80 11.88 11.92 12.10 12.27 12.36 12.43 12.50 12.57 12.72 12.74 12.85 12.99 13.10 13.15 13.27 13.40 13.47 13.47 Nuclear Power................| 3.47 3.47 3.43 3.45 3.38 3.31 3.24 3.20 3.16 3.08 3.04 3.00 2.95 2.89 2.79 2.62 2.42 2.32 2.12 2.01 1.95 1.93 Renewable Energy.............| 3.17 3.21 3.25 3.26 3.29 3.31 3.36 3.39 3.41 3.44 3.47 3.50 3.51 3.54 3.54 3.55 3.58 3.58 3.61 3.63 3.63 3.63 Other .......................| .25 .26 .26 .25 .25 .25 .26 .26 .26 .26 .24 .23 .23 .22 .23 .23 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 Total....................|35.49 35.53 35.93 36.11 36.35 36.45 36.84 37.15 37.46 37.70 38.01 38.26 38.46 38.55 38.74 38.72 38.72 38.67 38.85 38.93 39.02 39.01 + Imports + Crude Oil ...................| 8.60 8.84 9.03 9.46 9.58 9.95 10.14 10.31 10.42 10.49 10.55 10.67 10.75 10.84 10.98 11.11 11.22 11.34 11.44 11.53 11.59 11.65 Petroleum Products ..........| 2.08 2.01 2.20 2.26 2.36 2.44 2.58 2.78 2.91 3.13 3.49 3.60 3.69 4.02 3.89 4.09 4.26 4.25 4.44 4.57 4.69 4.76 Natural Gas .................| 1.83 1.98 2.00 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.07 2.09 2.12 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.31 2.35 2.38 2.41 2.44 2.47 2.50 2.52 Other Imports ...............| .28 .29 .29 .30 .28 .28 .27 .27 .28 .27 .27 .27 .27 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 .26 Total....................|12.78 13.12 13.51 14.03 14.25 14.72 15.07 15.46 15.72 16.03 16.49 16.74 16.94 17.39 17.44 17.80 18.12 18.26 18.58 18.83 19.04 19.20 + Exports + Petroleum ...................| .78 .81 .75 .77 .78 .80 .82 .83 .84 .83 .84 .85 .79 .88 .82 .87 .89 .84 .88 .87 .86 .79 Natural Gas..................| .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .13 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 .15 .15 .15 Coal.........................| 1.11 1.13 1.17 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.43 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.51 1.52 Total....................| 2.02 2.07 2.05 2.11 2.13 2.16 2.20 2.23 2.25 2.26 2.30 2.33 2.29 2.38 2.35 2.42 2.46 2.42 2.49 2.50 2.52 2.46 + Discrepancy ....................| .30 .44 .42 .31 .35 .17 .25 .26 .34 .27 .24 .28 .27 .17 .31 .28 .25 .22 .22 .20 .19 .08 + Consumption + Petroleum Products ..........|17.88 18.06 18.41 18.71 18.93 19.16 19.52 19.87 20.12 20.35 20.70 20.94 21.13 21.32 21.49 21.64 21.82 21.91 22.09 22.25 22.40 22.44 Natural Gas..................|11.58 11.66 11.86 12.04 12.29 12.45 12.72 12.93 13.21 13.47 13.76 13.99 14.15 14.33 14.58 14.69 14.85 14.93 15.24 15.36 15.51 15.57 Coal.........................|10.28 10.41 10.67 10.69 10.75 10.78 10.94 11.07 11.18 11.21 11.27 11.32 11.45 11.46 11.54 11.67 11.75 11.79 11.89 12.00 12.05 12.03 Nuclear Power................| 3.47 3.47 3.43 3.45 3.38 3.31 3.24 3.20 3.16 3.08 3.04 3.00 2.95 2.89 2.79 2.62 2.42 2.32 2.12 2.01 1.95 1.93 Renewable Energy.............| 3.17 3.21 3.25 3.26 3.29 3.31 3.36 3.40 3.42 3.44 3.48 3.51 3.52 3.55 3.55 3.57 3.60 3.59 3.62 3.64 3.64 3.64 Other .......................| .18 .19 .19 .19 .18 .18 .18 .18 .19 .18 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .20 .20 .20 .20 Total......................|46.57 47.01 47.81 48.35 48.82 49.18 49.96 50.64 51.27 51.73 52.44 52.95 53.39 53.73 54.14 54.37 54.63 54.73 55.16 55.46 55.74 55.82 + Net Imports - Petroleum.........| 9.89 10.04 10.47 10.95 11.16 11.59 11.90 12.26 12.49 12.79 13.19 13.42 13.66 13.99 14.04 14.33 14.59 14.76 15.00 15.23 15.42 15.63 + Prices (1996 dollars per unit) + World Oil Price ($ per bbl) ...|18.57 19.11 19.36 19.51 19.79 19.99 20.19 20.22 20.37 20.52 20.66 20.81 20.95 21.10 21.23 21.35 21.48 21.62 21.78 21.94 22.11 22.32 Gas Wellhead Price($per Mcf)...| 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.21 2.24 2.27 2.31 2.32 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.45 2.48 2.54 Coal Minemouth Price ($per ton)|17.48 17.45 16.99 16.77 16.61 16.42 16.18 15.81 15.62 15.47 15.08 15.05 14.71 14.49 14.42 14.22 13.99 13.92 13.81 13.67 13.44 13.27 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 24. Renewable Energy, Consumption by Sector and Source 1/ (Quadrillion Btu per Year) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sector and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Marketed Renewable Energy .. + + Residential...................| .61 .61 .61 .61 .62 .62 .62 .62 .62 .63 .62 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .64 .64 .64 .64 .64 .64 Wood........................| .61 .61 .61 .61 .62 .62 .62 .62 .62 .63 .62 .63 .63 .63 .63 .63 .64 .64 .64 .64 .64 .64 + Commercial ...................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Biomass.....................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Industrial ...................| 1.93 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.04 2.07 2.10 2.13 2.16 2.19 2.22 2.24 2.26 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.34 2.34 Conventional Hydroelectric..| .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 Municipal Solid Waste.......| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 Biomass.....................| 1.89 1.92 1.95 1.98 2.00 2.03 2.07 2.10 2.13 2.15 2.18 2.20 2.22 2.24 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.28 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.30 + Transportation................| .14 .17 .17 .14 .15 .15 .17 .16 .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .14 .17 .17 .14 .15 .15 .13 .14 .15 Ethanol used in E85 ........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .11 .12 .12 .13 .13 .13 Ethanol used in Gas.Blending| .14 .16 .16 .14 .14 .13 .14 .13 .12 .11 .10 .09 .08 .05 .07 .06 .03 .03 .03 .01 .01 .01 + Electric Generators ..........| 4.17 4.21 4.24 4.26 4.27 4.28 4.31 4.33 4.34 4.36 4.38 4.40 4.41 4.46 4.43 4.44 4.48 4.49 4.49 4.53 4.55 4.56 Conventional Hydroelectric..| 3.22 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.26 3.27 3.27 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 Geothermal..................| .48 .48 .50 .50 .49 .48 .50 .49 .50 .51 .51 .52 .51 .54 .51 .50 .53 .53 .54 .56 .57 .58 Municipal Solid Waste.......| .33 .33 .34 .35 .35 .36 .37 .38 .39 .40 .41 .42 .43 .44 .45 .45 .46 .46 .47 .47 .47 .47 Biomass.....................| .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .11 .11 .11 Solar Thermal...............| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .00 .00 .00 .00 Solar Photovoltaic..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 Wind........................| .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 .09 .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 + Total Marketed Renew. Energy..| 6.85 6.95 7.01 7.04 7.08 7.12 7.21 7.25 7.30 7.35 7.39 7.44 7.47 7.51 7.53 7.54 7.58 7.60 7.61 7.63 7.66 7.69 + Non-Marketed Renewable Energy + -- Selected Consumption .. + + Residential...................| .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 Solar Hot Water Heating.....| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 Ground-Source Heat Pumps....| .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 + Commercial....................| .02 .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 Solar Thermal...............| .02 .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 25. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Mtoes per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Supply, Disposition, and Prices|1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Production + Crude Oil & Lease Condensate.|312.4 307.0 302.7 298.9 295.7 292.6 289.7 287.0 284.5 282.0 279.6 277.2 274.9 272.1 269.1 264.6 260.8 257.2 253.7 250.5 247.9 245.1 Natural Gas Plant Liquids....|56.30 56.09 57.07 57.98 59.53 60.58 61.88 63.09 64.66 66.32 67.77 69.29 69.98 71.10 72.15 72.51 73.30 73.88 75.46 76.01 76.80 77.32 Dry Natural Gas..............|491.8 490.0 497.9 506.2 518.2 527.1 537.9 547.5 560.2 573.9 585.6 597.0 603.4 612.4 621.2 624.7 631.2 635.7 648.1 652.7 658.8 663.2 Coal.........................|563.0 572.4 585.3 587.5 591.1 595.1 602.3 610.6 615.1 620.2 622.4 625.9 633.3 635.8 639.5 646.6 651.9 656.5 660.3 667.0 670.2 672.1 Nuclear Power................|172.9 173.0 170.7 171.9 168.3 165.2 161.4 159.2 157.1 153.6 151.5 149.5 146.7 144.4 138.9 130.4 120.4 115.9 105.6 100.0 97.05 96.10 Renewable Energy ............|157.9 160.3 161.6 162.3 163.7 165.0 167.3 168.9 169.9 171.6 172.7 174.1 174.9 176.5 176.1 176.9 178.4 178.7 179.6 180.6 180.5 181.2 Other .......................|12.34 13.18 13.03 12.59 12.60 12.57 12.99 12.80 12.88 12.85 12.11 11.38 11.32 10.72 11.22 11.39 11.07 11.11 11.19 10.86 10.99 11.04 Total....................| 1767 1772 1788 1797 1809 1818 1833 1849 1864 1881 1892 1904 1914 1923 1928 1927 1927 1929 1934 1938 1942 1946 + Imports + Crude Oil ...................|438.9 451.0 460.7 483.1 489.1 508.1 517.4 526.3 531.7 535.4 538.4 544.8 548.9 553.4 560.3 566.9 572.7 579.1 584.0 588.5 591.7 594.8 Petroleum Products ..........|103.3 99.9 109.3 112.4 117.4 121.6 128.6 138.4 144.9 155.7 173.8 179.0 183.7 200.1 193.5 203.4 211.9 211.6 220.8 227.3 233.6 237.2 Natural Gas .................|91.19 98.80 99.4 100.1 101.1 102.1 103.3 104.3 105.4 106.8 108.2 109.6 111.1 113.0 115.1 116.8 118.6 120.2 121.5 122.9 124.2 125.6 Other Imports ...............|13.89 14.66 14.52 14.77 14.01 14.07 13.66 13.69 13.79 13.38 13.59 13.37 13.24 13.10 12.86 12.71 12.80 12.85 12.92 12.98 13.04 13.08 Total....................|647.2 664.4 683.9 710.4 721.5 745.8 762.9 782.7 795.7 811.3 833.9 846.8 857.0 879.6 881.8 899.9 915.9 923.6 939.2 951.7 962.6 970.6 + Exports + Petroleum ...................|38.81 40.22 37.47 38.47 38.94 39.98 40.63 41.46 41.60 41.27 42.03 42.28 39.18 43.58 40.92 43.22 44.35 41.72 43.76 43.30 42.90 39.33 Natural Gas..................| 6.33 6.48 6.48 6.50 6.52 6.57 6.62 6.64 6.67 6.72 6.76 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.86 6.88 6.96 7.03 7.10 7.22 7.34 7.51 Coal.........................|55.19 56.62 58.17 59.86 60.59 61.33 62.11 62.93 63.81 64.73 65.70 66.83 67.90 68.17 69.16 70.17 71.22 71.93 72.87 73.90 74.96 76.06 Total....................|100.3 103.3 102.1 104.8 106.0 107.9 109.4 111.0 112.1 112.7 114.5 115.9 113.9 118.6 116.9 120.3 122.5 120.7 123.7 124.4 125.2 122.9 + Discrepancy ....................| 4.84 13.72 10.36 4.43 6.19 -.30 .86 1.27 5.00 4.21 .23 1.92 1.41 -.73 3.31 1.33 .08 1.49 -1.88 -2.88 -3.33 -5.98 + Consumption + Petroleum Products ..........|889.8 901.6 916.2 931.4 942.3 956.0 971.4 989.0 1001 1016 1030 1042 1052 1064 1070 1077 1086 1093 1100 1107 1115 1120 Natural Gas..................|576.1 581.8 590.5 599.3 611.9 621.4 633.2 643.8 657.4 672.3 684.6 696.5 704.4 715.2 725.9 731.0 739.1 744.9 758.6 764.4 771.7 777.3 Coal.........................|512.5 520.5 532.1 532.9 535.9 539.1 545.6 552.1 557.7 560.8 562.4 564.9 571.5 573.4 575.9 582.6 586.5 590.2 593.5 599.0 601.5 602.2 Nuclear Power................|172.9 173.0 170.7 171.9 168.3 165.2 161.4 159.2 157.1 153.6 151.5 149.5 146.7 144.4 138.9 130.4 120.4 115.9 105.6 100.0 97.05 96.10 Renewable Energy ............|158.0 160.3 161.6 162.3 163.7 165.0 167.5 169.1 170.2 171.9 173.1 174.5 175.4 177.1 176.7 177.5 179.1 179.3 180.3 181.3 181.2 181.9 Other .......................| 9.14 9.68 9.45 9.55 8.75 8.96 8.73 8.92 9.22 8.97 9.36 9.33 9.36 9.37 9.30 9.29 9.51 9.65 9.79 9.92 10.04 10.15 Total......................| 2318 2347 2381 2407 2431 2456 2488 2522 2553 2583 2611 2637 2659 2683 2696 2708 2721 2733 2747 2762 2776 2788 + Net Imports - Petroleum.........|503.3 510.7 532.5 557.1 567.5 589.7 605.3 623.3 635.0 649.9 670.1 681.6 693.4 709.9 712.9 727.1 740.2 748.9 761.0 772.6 782.4 792.6 + Prices (1996 dollars per unit) + World Oil Price ($ per bbl) ...|18.57 19.11 19.36 19.51 19.79 19.99 20.19 20.22 20.37 20.52 20.66 20.81 20.95 21.10 21.23 21.35 21.48 21.62 21.78 21.94 22.11 22.32 Gas Wellhead Price($ / Mcf)...| 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.21 2.24 2.27 2.31 2.32 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.45 2.48 2.54 Coal Minemouth Price ($ / ton).|17.48 17.45 16.99 16.77 16.61 16.42 16.18 15.81 15.62 15.47 15.08 15.05 14.71 14.49 14.42 14.22 13.99 13.92 13.81 13.67 13.44 13.27 Aver. Electricity (cents / Kwh)| 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 73. Oil and Gas, End-of-Year Reserves and Annual Reserve Additions + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Categories |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Lower 48 Reserves + + Crude Oil (billion barrels).. + Lower 48 Total...............|15.56 15.25 15.05 14.88 14.77 14.71 14.69 14.68 14.71 14.75 14.81 14.87 14.92 14.93 14.90 14.78 14.67 14.59 14.51 14.44 14.39 14.33 Lower 48 Onshore.............|12.16 11.87 11.69 11.54 11.47 11.44 11.45 11.48 11.55 11.64 11.75 11.86 11.96 12.03 12.05 11.98 11.94 11.91 11.88 11.86 11.87 11.86 Conventional...............| 9.48 9.18 8.95 8.77 8.62 8.51 8.42 8.36 8.32 8.29 8.28 8.29 8.31 8.33 8.34 8.37 8.41 8.45 8.51 8.57 8.64 8.71 Enhanced Oil Recovery......| 2.68 2.69 2.73 2.78 2.85 2.93 3.03 3.12 3.23 3.35 3.46 3.57 3.64 3.70 3.71 3.61 3.53 3.46 3.37 3.29 3.23 3.14 Lower 48 Offshore............| 3.40 3.38 3.36 3.34 3.31 3.28 3.24 3.20 3.16 3.11 3.06 3.02 2.96 2.91 2.85 2.79 2.74 2.68 2.63 2.58 2.52 2.48 + Dry Natural Gas(tril.cubic feet) + Lower 48 Total...............|169.2 172.0 175.2 178.6 181.7 184.7 187.2 189.6 191.8 193.6 195.1 196.3 197.2 197.6 197.5 197.1 196.3 195.1 193.2 190.9 188.2 185.1 Lower 48 Onshore.............|130.7 132.2 134.2 136.6 138.8 141.0 142.9 144.7 146.3 147.6 148.6 149.3 149.5 149.5 148.9 148.0 146.7 145.1 143.1 140.9 138.5 136.1 Associated-Dissolved ......| 15.2 14.2 13.4 12.8 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Non-Associated.............|115.5 118.1 120.8 123.7 126.5 129.0 131.2 133.3 135.1 136.6 137.8 138.6 139.0 139.1 138.6 137.8 136.6 135.1 133.0 131.0 128.5 126.1 Conventional.............| 72.8 74.9 77.0 79.3 81.2 83.0 84.5 85.8 86.9 87.7 88.3 88.6 88.7 88.5 88.0 87.3 86.2 84.9 83.3 81.4 79.5 77.4 Unconventional...........| 42.7 43.2 43.7 44.4 45.2 46.0 46.7 47.5 48.2 48.9 49.5 50.0 50.3 50.6 50.6 50.5 50.3 50.2 49.8 49.6 49.1 48.7 Lower 48 Offshore............| 38.5 39.8 41.0 42.0 42.9 43.7 44.4 45.0 45.5 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.7 48.1 48.6 49.1 49.6 49.9 50.1 49.9 49.6 49.1 Associated-Dissolved ......| 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 Non-Associated.............| 30.2 31.3 32.4 33.3 34.1 34.8 35.5 36.1 36.7 37.2 37.8 38.3 39.0 39.4 40.0 40.6 41.1 41.6 41.8 41.7 41.5 41.0 + Lower 48 Reserve Additions + + Crude Oil (billion barrels).. + Lower 48 Total...............| 1.48 1.53 1.62 1.64 1.69 1.73 1.76 1.77 1.80 1.81 1.83 1.82 1.80 1.76 1.70 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.59 1.56 Lower 48 Onshore.............| .92 .94 1.02 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.17 1.21 1.23 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.23 1.18 1.08 1.09 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.11 Conventional...............| .71 .73 .76 .77 .79 .81 .82 .83 .84 .85 .86 .87 .88 .87 .87 .89 .89 .91 .92 .93 .94 .95 Enhanced Oil Recovery......| .20 .21 .26 .26 .29 .32 .34 .34 .37 .38 .40 .39 .37 .35 .31 .19 .20 .20 .19 .18 .20 .16 Lower 48 Offshore............| .56 .59 .60 .60 .60 .61 .61 .60 .59 .58 .57 .56 .55 .53 .52 .51 .50 .49 .47 .46 .45 .44 + Dry Natural Gas(tril.cubic feet) + Lower 48 Total...............| 23.4 22.7 23.2 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.8 Lower 48 Onshore.............| 16.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.5 Associated-Dissolved ......| 1.6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 Non-Associated.............| 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.3 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.3 Conventional.............| 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 Unconventional...........| 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 Lower 48 Offshore............| 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 Associated-Dissolved ......| 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 Non-Associated.............| 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 92. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table SET 1 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + STEO Table HL1. US Energy Supply + and Demand Summary + + Real GDP (92 chain-weighted $) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 7489 7653 7815 7972 8130 8312 8503 8694 8880 9073 9255 9431 9600 9774 9932 10073 10211 10348 10494 10635 10772 10900 Difference..................|-7489 -7653 -7815 -7972 -8130 -8312 -8503 -8694 -8880 -9073 -9255 -9431 -9600 -9774 -9932 ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Net Petroleum Imports Includes + SPR (million barrels per day) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|10.01 10.17 10.62 11.11 11.33 11.78 12.10 12.48 12.71 13.02 13.45 13.68 13.94 14.30 14.36 14.65 14.92 15.09 15.31 15.55 15.77 15.98 Difference..................|-10.0 -10.2 -10.6 -11.1 -11.3 -11.8 -12.1 -12.5 -12.7 -13.0 -13.5 -13.7 -13.9 -14.3 -14.4 -14.6 -14.9 -15.1 -15.3 -15.6 -15.8 -16.0 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + World Petroleum Demand + (million barrels per day) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|76.44 78.09 79.75 81.65 83.48 85.39 87.39 89.18 90.98 92.85 94.72 96.56 98.28 100.2 102.0 103.9 105.9 107.9 109.9 112.0 114.2 116.3 Difference..................|-76.4 -78.1 -79.7 -81.7 -83.5 -85.4 -87.4 -89.2 -91.0 -92.8 -94.7 -96.6 -98.3 -100 -102 -104 -106 -108 -110 -112 -114 -116 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Adjusted Total Energy (Quads) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|98.66 99.9 101.3 102.4 103.5 104.5 105.9 107.3 108.7 110.0 111.1 112.2 113.2 114.2 114.8 115.3 115.8 116.4 117.0 117.6 118.2 118.7 Difference..................|-98.7 -100 -101 -102 -103 -105 -106 -107 -109 -110 -111 -112 -113 -114 -115 -115 -116 -116 -117 -118 -118 -119 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + STEO Table 4. U.S. Energy Prices + + Import Crude Oil Price ($/bbl) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|18.57 19.11 19.36 19.51 19.79 19.99 20.19 20.22 20.37 20.52 20.66 20.81 20.95 21.10 21.23 21.35 21.48 21.62 21.78 21.94 22.11 22.32 Difference..................|-18.6 -19.1 -19.4 -19.5 -19.8 -20.0 -20.2 -20.2 -20.4 -20.5 -20.7 -20.8 -20.9 -21.1 -21.2 -21.3 -21.5 -21.6 -21.8 -21.9 -22.1 -22.3 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Nat. Gas Wellhead Price($/mcf) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.21 2.24 2.27 2.31 2.32 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.45 2.48 2.54 Difference..................|-2.11 -2.11 -2.12 -2.12 -2.12 -2.13 -2.15 -2.17 -2.21 -2.24 -2.27 -2.31 -2.32 -2.34 -2.35 -2.36 -2.38 -2.39 -2.41 -2.45 -2.48 -2.54 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gasoline Retail Price ($/gal.) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 Difference..................|-1.19 -1.21 -1.22 -1.22 -1.22 -1.23 -1.24 -1.24 -1.26 -1.25 -1.25 -1.26 -1.26 -1.26 -1.27 -1.27 -1.26 -1.27 -1.26 -1.26 -1.27 -1.27 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 92. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 1 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ No. 2 Diesel Oil Retail Price + ($/gal.) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.21 1.20 1.21 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.18 Difference..................|-1.18 -1.18 -1.19 -1.19 -1.20 -1.21 -1.21 -1.20 -1.21 -1.20 -1.21 -1.19 -1.19 -1.18 -1.20 -1.20 -1.19 -1.19 -1.18 -1.18 -1.19 -1.18 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + No. 2 Heating Oil, Retail + Price ($/gal.) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .98 .99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Difference..................| -.98 -.99 -1.00 -1.01 -1.01 -1.02 -1.04 -1.03 -1.05 -1.04 -1.05 -1.05 -1.05 -1.04 -1.06 -1.06 -1.06 -1.06 -1.05 -1.06 -1.06 -1.07 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + No. 6 Residual Oil, Retail + Price ($/bbl) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|16.98 17.19 17.49 17.59 18.13 18.21 18.35 18.02 19.07 19.28 19.10 19.63 19.58 19.22 20.01 20.35 20.15 20.41 20.33 20.80 21.24 21.23 Difference..................|-17.0 -17.2 -17.5 -17.6 -18.1 -18.2 -18.3 -18.0 -19.1 -19.3 -19.1 -19.6 -19.6 -19.2 -20.0 -20.4 -20.2 -20.4 -20.3 -20.8 -21.2 -21.2 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Utilities Coal Price($/mm btu) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.01 1.00 .99 .98 .97 Difference..................|-1.22 -1.20 -1.19 -1.17 -1.16 -1.15 -1.14 -1.12 -1.11 -1.10 -1.10 -1.09 -1.07 -1.06 -1.05 -1.04 -1.03 -1.01 -1.00 -.99 -.98 -.97 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Utilities Heavy Fuel Oil Price + ($/mm btu) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 2.89 2.95 2.99 3.03 3.18 3.23 3.20 3.17 3.36 3.42 3.35 3.46 3.43 3.39 3.53 3.65 3.60 3.65 3.61 3.66 3.76 3.77 Difference..................|-2.89 -2.95 -2.99 -3.03 -3.18 -3.23 -3.20 -3.17 -3.36 -3.42 -3.35 -3.46 -3.43 -3.39 -3.53 -3.65 -3.60 -3.65 -3.61 -3.66 -3.76 -3.77 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Utilities Natural Gas Price + ($/mm btu) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 2.43 2.48 2.53 2.55 2.55 2.60 2.63 2.68 2.73 2.77 2.81 2.84 2.89 2.90 2.93 2.95 2.98 3.00 3.03 3.07 3.10 3.15 Difference..................|-2.43 -2.48 -2.53 -2.55 -2.55 -2.60 -2.63 -2.68 -2.73 -2.77 -2.81 -2.84 -2.89 -2.90 -2.93 -2.95 -2.98 -3.00 -3.03 -3.07 -3.10 -3.15 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Residential Natural Gas Price + ($/mcf) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 5.99 5.95 5.95 5.87 5.82 5.76 5.72 5.69 5.69 5.65 5.64 5.59 5.59 5.53 5.50 5.50 5.48 5.48 5.52 5.53 5.57 5.61 Difference..................|-5.99 -5.95 -5.95 -5.87 -5.82 -5.76 -5.72 -5.69 -5.69 -5.65 -5.64 -5.59 -5.59 -5.53 -5.50 -5.50 -5.48 -5.48 -5.52 -5.53 -5.57 -5.61 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 92. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 1 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Residential Electricity Price + (cents/kwh) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 7.95 7.82 7.72 7.63 7.63 7.55 7.52 7.44 7.42 7.39 7.35 7.31 7.22 7.11 7.09 7.04 6.96 6.94 6.90 6.86 6.83 6.83 Difference..................|-7.95 -7.82 -7.72 -7.63 -7.63 -7.55 -7.52 -7.44 -7.42 -7.39 -7.35 -7.31 -7.22 -7.11 -7.09 -7.04 -6.96 -6.94 -6.90 -6.86 -6.83 -6.83 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + STEO Table 6. U.S. Petroleum + Supply and Demand (mmbd) + + Domestic Crude Oil Production + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 6.28 6.17 6.08 6.01 5.94 5.88 5.82 5.77 5.72 5.67 5.62 5.57 5.52 5.47 5.41 5.32 5.24 5.17 5.10 5.03 4.98 4.92 Difference..................|-6.28 -6.17 -6.08 -6.01 -5.94 -5.88 -5.82 -5.77 -5.72 -5.67 -5.62 -5.57 -5.52 -5.47 -5.41 -5.32 -5.24 -5.17 -5.10 -5.03 -4.98 -4.92 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Net Crude Oil Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 8.50 8.75 9.03 9.46 9.58 9.95 10.14 10.31 10.42 10.49 10.55 10.67 10.75 10.84 10.98 11.11 11.22 11.34 11.44 11.53 11.59 11.65 Difference..................|-8.50 -8.75 -9.0 -9.5 -9.6 -10.0 -10.1 -10.3 -10.4 -10.5 -10.5 -10.7 -10.8 -10.8 -11.0 -11.1 -11.2 -11.3 -11.4 -11.5 -11.6 -11.7 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + NGL Production + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.88 1.87 1.89 1.92 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.06 2.10 2.15 2.19 2.24 2.25 2.29 2.32 2.33 2.35 2.37 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 Difference..................|-1.88 -1.87 -1.89 -1.92 -1.96 -1.99 -2.02 -2.06 -2.10 -2.15 -2.19 -2.24 -2.25 -2.29 -2.32 -2.33 -2.35 -2.37 -2.41 -2.43 -2.45 -2.47 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Other Refinery Input Plus Gain + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.16 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.15 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.10 1.09 1.08 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.02 Difference..................|-1.16 -1.18 -1.18 -1.17 -1.17 -1.17 -1.18 -1.15 -1.16 -1.15 -1.15 -1.14 -1.10 -1.09 -1.08 -1.10 -1.09 -1.07 -1.09 -1.07 -1.06 -1.02 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Net Petroleum Product Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.51 1.42 1.59 1.64 1.75 1.82 1.96 2.17 2.29 2.53 2.90 3.00 3.18 3.46 3.38 3.54 3.70 3.74 3.87 4.02 4.18 4.33 Difference..................|-1.51 -1.42 -1.59 -1.64 -1.75 -1.82 -1.96 -2.17 -2.29 -2.53 -2.90 -3.00 -3.18 -3.46 -3.38 -3.54 -3.70 -3.74 -3.87 -4.02 -4.18 -4.33 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Motor Gasoline Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 8.39 8.52 8.67 8.82 8.94 9.06 9.18 9.31 9.43 9.54 9.65 9.75 9.82 9.89 9.95 10.03 10.10 10.14 10.21 10.27 10.33 10.39 Difference..................|-8.39 -8.52 -8.67 -8.82 -8.94 -9.1 -9.2 -9.3 -9.4 -9.5 -9.7 -9.8 -9.8 -9.9 -10.0 -10.0 -10.1 -10.1 -10.2 -10.3 -10.3 -10.4 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 92. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 1 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Jet Fuel Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.80 1.85 1.91 1.97 2.03 2.10 2.16 2.25 2.31 2.38 2.46 2.53 2.58 2.64 2.69 2.74 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 2.99 3.03 Difference..................|-1.80 -1.85 -1.91 -1.97 -2.03 -2.10 -2.16 -2.25 -2.31 -2.38 -2.46 -2.53 -2.58 -2.64 -2.69 -2.74 -2.80 -2.85 -2.90 -2.95 -2.99 -3.03 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Distillate Fuel Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.63 3.67 3.73 3.79 3.83 3.89 3.94 3.99 4.03 4.07 4.11 4.15 4.18 4.21 4.22 4.23 4.24 4.25 4.27 4.29 4.30 4.31 Difference..................|-3.63 -3.67 -3.73 -3.79 -3.83 -3.89 -3.94 -3.99 -4.03 -4.07 -4.11 -4.15 -4.18 -4.21 -4.22 -4.23 -4.24 -4.25 -4.27 -4.29 -4.30 -4.31 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Residual Fuel Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .82 .81 .82 .82 .79 .79 .81 .83 .83 .84 .87 .88 .90 .92 .92 .92 .93 .95 .95 .97 .97 .99 Difference..................| -.82 -.81 -.82 -.82 -.79 -.79 -.81 -.83 -.83 -.84 -.87 -.88 -.90 -.92 -.92 -.92 -.93 -.95 -.95 -.97 -.97 -.99 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Other Oils Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 4.71 4.76 4.81 4.88 4.92 4.98 5.06 5.15 5.21 5.28 5.35 5.39 5.43 5.51 5.51 5.54 5.59 5.61 5.61 5.64 5.68 5.67 Difference..................|-4.71 -4.76 -4.81 -4.88 -4.92 -4.98 -5.06 -5.15 -5.21 -5.28 -5.35 -5.39 -5.43 -5.51 -5.51 -5.54 -5.59 -5.61 -5.61 -5.64 -5.68 -5.67 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Petroleum Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|19.36 19.62 19.94 20.27 20.52 20.81 21.15 21.53 21.81 22.12 22.44 22.70 22.91 23.17 23.29 23.46 23.65 23.81 23.95 24.11 24.27 24.39 Difference..................|-19.4 -19.6 -19.9 -20.3 -20.5 -20.8 -21.1 -21.5 -21.8 -22.1 -22.4 -22.7 -22.9 -23.2 -23.3 -23.5 -23.7 -23.8 -23.9 -24.1 -24.3 -24.4 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 110. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table SET 2 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + STEO Table 10. Natural Gas + + Dry Natural Gas Production + (includes supplemental) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|20.46 20.38 20.71 21.05 21.55 21.92 22.36 22.76 23.29 23.86 24.31 24.75 25.02 25.39 25.75 25.90 26.17 26.35 26.87 27.06 27.31 27.49 Difference..................|-20.5 -20.4 -20.7 -21.1 -21.6 -21.9 -22.4 -22.8 -23.3 -23.9 -24.3 -24.8 -25.0 -25.4 -25.8 -25.9 -26.2 -26.4 -26.9 -27.1 -27.3 -27.5 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Net Natural Gas Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.53 3.84 3.87 3.89 3.94 3.98 4.02 4.06 4.11 4.16 4.22 4.28 4.34 4.42 4.51 4.58 4.64 4.71 4.76 4.81 4.86 4.91 Difference..................|-3.53 -3.84 -3.87 -3.89 -3.94 -3.98 -4.02 -4.06 -4.11 -4.16 -4.22 -4.28 -4.34 -4.42 -4.51 -4.58 -4.64 -4.71 -4.76 -4.81 -4.86 -4.91 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Residential Natural Gas Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 5.15 5.20 5.20 5.22 5.25 5.30 5.31 5.34 5.37 5.42 5.43 5.47 5.50 5.56 5.59 5.62 5.66 5.70 5.70 5.73 5.76 5.80 Difference..................|-5.15 -5.20 -5.20 -5.22 -5.25 -5.30 -5.31 -5.34 -5.37 -5.42 -5.43 -5.47 -5.50 -5.56 -5.59 -5.62 -5.66 -5.70 -5.70 -5.73 -5.76 -5.80 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Commercial Natural Gas Demand. + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.34 3.37 3.40 3.43 3.46 3.49 3.52 3.54 3.57 3.59 3.62 3.65 3.67 3.69 3.71 3.73 3.74 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 Difference..................|-3.34 -3.37 -3.40 -3.43 -3.46 -3.49 -3.52 -3.54 -3.57 -3.59 -3.62 -3.65 -3.67 -3.69 -3.71 -3.73 -3.74 -3.75 -3.75 -3.75 -3.75 -3.75 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Indutrial Natural Gas Demand + (includes cogenerators) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 9.23 9.29 9.27 9.31 9.30 9.32 9.39 9.46 9.56 9.62 9.69 9.75 9.79 9.78 9.82 9.79 9.75 9.72 9.77 9.74 9.73 9.70 Difference..................| -9.2 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.4 -9.5 -9.6 -9.6 -9.7 -9.8 -9.8 -9.8 -9.8 -9.8 -9.8 -9.7 -9.8 -9.7 -9.7 -9.7 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Electricity Natural Gas Demand + (includes nonutilities) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.94 4.05 4.35 4.59 4.99 5.25 5.57 5.82 6.17 6.58 6.92 7.22 7.44 7.75 8.06 8.24 8.52 8.73 9.18 9.38 9.66 9.85 Difference..................|-3.94 -4.05 -4.35 -4.59 -4.99 -5.25 -5.57 -5.82 -6.17 -6.58 -6.92 -7.22 -7.44 -7.75 -8.06 -8.24 -8.52 -8.73 -9.2 -9.4 -9.7 -9.9 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Lease & Plant Fuel Gas Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.56 1.59 1.61 1.63 1.65 1.67 1.68 1.70 1.73 1.74 1.76 1.76 Difference..................|-1.35 -1.35 -1.37 -1.38 -1.41 -1.43 -1.45 -1.48 -1.51 -1.54 -1.56 -1.59 -1.61 -1.63 -1.65 -1.67 -1.68 -1.70 -1.73 -1.74 -1.76 -1.76 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 110. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 2 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Pipeline Fuel Gas Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .79 .78 .79 .79 .81 .81 .82 .84 .86 .88 .91 .93 .91 .95 .95 .94 .96 .96 .98 .99 .99 1.00 Difference..................| -.79 -.78 -.79 -.79 -.81 -.81 -.82 -.84 -.86 -.88 -.91 -.93 -.91 -.95 -.95 -.94 -.96 -.96 -.98 -.99 -.99 -1.00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Natural Gas Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|23.81 24.03 24.37 24.72 25.22 25.60 26.07 26.49 27.04 27.64 28.13 28.61 28.92 29.36 29.79 29.99 30.32 30.55 31.11 31.35 31.64 31.87 Difference..................|-23.8 -24.0 -24.4 -24.7 -25.2 -25.6 -26.1 -26.5 -27.0 -27.6 -28.1 -28.6 -28.9 -29.4 -29.8 -30.0 -30.3 -30.6 -31.1 -31.3 -31.6 -31.9 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + STEO Table 11. Coal + + Coal Production + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1128 1145 1176 1176 1183 1191 1207 1229 1239 1249 1261 1265 1284 1290 1296 1311 1326 1334 1339 1355 1367 1376 Difference..................|-1128 -1145 -1176 -1176 -1183 -1191 -1207 -1229 -1239 -1249 -1261 -1265 -1284 -1290 -1296 -1311 -1326 -1334 -1339 -1355 -1367 -1376 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 7.07 7.47 7.48 7.50 7.51 7.53 7.55 7.57 7.59 7.60 7.62 7.64 7.66 7.68 7.70 7.72 7.74 7.76 7.78 7.81 7.83 7.85 Difference..................|-7.07 -7.47 -7.48 -7.50 -7.51 -7.53 -7.55 -7.57 -7.59 -7.60 -7.62 -7.64 -7.66 -7.68 -7.70 -7.72 -7.74 -7.76 -7.78 -7.81 -7.83 -7.85 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Exports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|91.83 94.45 97.30 100.4 101.4 102.6 103.9 105.2 106.6 108.2 109.8 111.6 113.4 114.0 115.7 117.4 119.2 120.5 122.2 124.0 125.8 127.7 Difference..................|-91.8 -94.4 -97.3 -100 -101 -103 -104 -105 -107 -108 -110 -112 -113 -114 -116 -117 -119 -121 -122 -124 -126 -128 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coke Plant Coal Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|31.61 31.08 30.46 29.86 29.27 28.69 28.32 27.95 27.58 27.16 26.76 26.35 25.96 25.57 25.19 24.81 24.44 24.07 23.71 23.35 23.00 22.66 Difference..................|-31.6 -31.1 -30.5 -29.9 -29.3 -28.7 -28.3 -28.0 -27.6 -27.2 -26.8 -26.4 -26.0 -25.6 -25.2 -24.8 -24.4 -24.1 -23.7 -23.4 -23.0 -22.7 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Electric Utility Coal Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|935.5 950.2 977.5 974.4 979.1 985.5 1000 1018 1030 1035 1046 1049 1067 1071 1075 1090 1103 1109 1114 1128 1139 1147 Difference..................| -936 -950 -977 -974 -979 -985 -1000 -1018 -1030 -1035 -1046 -1049 -1067 -1071 -1075 -1090 -1103 -1109 -1114 -1128 -1139 -1147 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + All Other Coal Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|76.74 77.05 78.67 80.21 81.37 82.76 83.50 84.34 85.13 85.86 86.47 87.00 87.45 87.77 87.75 87.62 87.52 87.54 87.72 87.80 87.93 87.89 Difference..................|-76.7 -77.0 -78.7 -80.2 -81.4 -82.8 -83.5 -84.3 -85.1 -85.9 -86.5 -87.0 -87.4 -87.8 -87.8 -87.6 -87.5 -87.5 -87.7 -87.8 -87.9 -87.9 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 110. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 2 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Total Coal Demand + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1044 1058 1087 1084 1090 1097 1112 1130 1142 1148 1160 1162 1180 1184 1188 1203 1215 1221 1225 1239 1250 1257 Difference..................|-1044 -1058 -1087 -1084 -1090 -1097 -1112 -1130 -1142 -1148 -1160 -1162 -1180 -1184 -1188 -1203 -1215 -1221 -1225 -1239 -1250 -1257 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + STEO Table 12 Electricity + + Net Generation from Coal + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1876 1903 1951 1954 1968 1980 2007 2032 2055 2067 2074 2085 2114 2123 2136 2170 2190 2208 2223 2249 2261 2265 Difference..................|-1876 -1903 -1951 -1954 -1968 -1980 -2007 -2032 -2055 -2067 -2074 -2085 -2114 -2123 -2136 -2170 -2190 -2208 -2223 -2249 -2261 -2265 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Net Gen. from Petroleum + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|60.47 53.94 51.64 49.22 38.92 35.11 36.75 37.36 34.43 33.92 36.36 35.39 35.73 37.16 34.92 32.29 32.67 32.24 31.70 31.99 31.49 31.79 Difference..................|-60.5 -53.9 -51.6 -49.2 -38.9 -35.1 -36.8 -37.4 -34.4 -33.9 -36.4 -35.4 -35.7 -37.2 -34.9 -32.3 -32.7 -32.2 -31.7 -32.0 -31.5 -31.8 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Net Gen. from Natural Gas + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|382.2 418.7 457.0 500.8 565.0 624.7 671.2 712.0 758.1 816.9 869.8 920.2 963.9 1016 1070 1113 1171 1213 1281 1315 1356 1389 Difference..................| -382 -419 -457 -501 -565 -625 -671 -712 -758 -817 -870 -920 -964 -1016 -1070 -1113 -1171 -1213 -1281 -1315 -1356 -1389 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Nonutilities + (cogeneration & IPP) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|441.1 518.6 589.9 667.7 797.1 910.9 976.3 1034 1085 1152 1214 1279 1366 1433 1515 1602 1694 1766 1856 1917 1969 2017 Difference..................| -441 -519 -590 -668 -797 -911 -976 -1034 -1085 -1152 -1214 -1279 -1366 -1433 -1515 -1602 -1694 -1766 -1856 -1917 -1969 -2017 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Net Electricity Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|37.28 39.42 38.36 38.62 35.24 35.06 33.10 32.82 33.06 30.97 31.52 30.35 29.48 28.63 27.45 26.67 26.84 26.84 26.84 26.84 26.84 26.84 Difference..................|-37.3 -39.4 -38.4 -38.6 -35.2 -35.1 -33.1 -32.8 -33.1 -31.0 -31.5 -30.3 -29.5 -28.6 -27.5 -26.7 -26.8 -26.8 -26.8 -26.8 -26.8 -26.8 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Electricity Supply + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 2797 2934 3088 3210 3404 3586 3724 3848 3965 4101 4225 4350 4509 4638 4784 4944 5114 5245 5418 5540 5643 5730 Difference..................|-2797 -2934 -3088 -3210 -3404 -3586 -3724 -3848 -3965 -4101 -4225 -4350 -4509 -4638 -4784 -4944 -5114 -5245 -5418 -5540 -5643 -5730 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Residential Electricity Sales + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1127 1164 1195 1210 1226 1243 1258 1276 1293 1315 1331 1350 1372 1396 1412 1431 1449 1472 1487 1506 1524 1548 Difference..................|-1127 -1164 -1195 -1210 -1226 -1243 -1258 -1276 -1293 -1315 -1331 -1350 -1372 -1396 -1412 -1431 -1449 -1472 -1487 -1506 -1524 -1548 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 110. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 2 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Commercial Electricity Sales + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1038 1053 1067 1081 1095 1110 1125 1140 1155 1170 1185 1200 1215 1231 1244 1256 1268 1278 1287 1294 1299 1304 Difference..................|-1038 -1053 -1067 -1081 -1095 -1110 -1125 -1140 -1155 -1170 -1185 -1200 -1215 -1231 -1244 -1256 -1268 -1278 -1287 -1294 -1299 -1304 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Util. Industrial Elec. Sales + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1071 1083 1107 1127 1143 1166 1186 1207 1230 1248 1266 1282 1303 1319 1328 1334 1343 1350 1362 1372 1385 1392 Difference..................|-1071 -1083 -1107 -1127 -1143 -1166 -1186 -1207 -1230 -1248 -1266 -1282 -1303 -1319 -1328 -1334 -1343 -1350 -1362 -1372 -1385 -1392 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + All Other Electricity Sales + (includes own use nonutility + generation) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|197.5 199.5 202.4 205.2 210.8 216.3 221.8 226.8 231.3 235.8 240.3 244.4 248.2 251.3 253.2 253.1 253.2 253.4 253.7 253.8 254.5 254.5 Difference..................| -197 -200 -202 -205 -211 -216 -222 -227 -231 -236 -240 -244 -248 -251 -253 -253 -253 -253 -254 -254 -254 -255 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Electricity Sales + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3434 3499 3571 3623 3674 3734 3791 3850 3909 3970 4022 4076 4139 4197 4237 4274 4313 4354 4389 4425 4463 4498 Difference..................|-3434 -3499 -3571 -3623 -3674 -3734 -3791 -3850 -3909 -3970 -4022 -4076 -4139 -4197 -4237 -4274 -4313 -4354 -4389 -4425 -4463 -4498 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 111. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table SET 3 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + STEO Table 13. Renewable Energy + + Utilities Hydroelectric + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.07 3.07 3.08 3.08 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 Difference..................|-3.06 -3.06 -3.06 -3.07 -3.07 -3.08 -3.08 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 -3.09 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Utilities Geothermal + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .19 .21 .20 .18 .18 .16 .17 .16 .16 .16 .16 .14 .13 .13 .10 .10 .10 .09 .10 .10 .08 .08 Difference..................| -.19 -.21 -.20 -.18 -.18 -.16 -.17 -.16 -.16 -.16 -.16 -.14 -.13 -.13 -.10 -.10 -.10 -.09 -.10 -.10 -.08 -.08 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Utilities All Other Renewable + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 Difference..................| -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Nonutilities Hydroelectric + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .19 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 Difference..................| -.19 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 -.22 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Nonutilities Geothermal, + Solar, and Wind + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .35 .38 .39 .40 .42 .44 .47 .49 .49 .51 .51 .54 .54 .57 .55 .57 .61 .61 .62 .64 .64 .66 Difference..................| -.35 -.38 -.39 -.40 -.42 -.44 -.47 -.49 -.49 -.51 -.51 -.54 -.54 -.57 -.55 -.57 -.61 -.61 -.62 -.64 -.64 -.66 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Nonutilities All Other Renew. + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .68 .69 .70 .71 .72 .73 .74 .75 .76 .78 .79 .80 .82 .82 .84 .84 .85 .85 .86 .87 .87 .87 Difference..................| -.68 -.69 -.70 -.71 -.72 -.73 -.74 -.75 -.76 -.78 -.79 -.80 -.82 -.82 -.84 -.84 -.85 -.85 -.86 -.87 -.87 -.87 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Inputs to the Refinery Sector + + Crude Inputs + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|13.29 13.06 12.88 12.71 12.58 12.44 12.32 12.21 12.10 11.99 11.89 11.79 11.69 11.57 11.45 11.25 11.09 10.94 10.79 10.65 10.55 10.43 Difference..................|-13.3 -13.1 -12.9 -12.7 -12.6 -12.4 -12.3 -12.2 -12.1 -12.0 -11.9 -11.8 -11.7 -11.6 -11.4 -11.3 -11.1 -10.9 -10.8 -10.7 -10.5 -10.4 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 111. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 3 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Imported Crude + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|18.45 19.01 19.59 20.55 20.80 21.61 22.01 22.39 22.61 22.77 22.90 23.17 23.35 23.54 23.83 24.11 24.36 24.63 24.84 25.03 25.17 25.30 Difference..................|-18.5 -19.0 -19.6 -20.5 -20.8 -21.6 -22.0 -22.4 -22.6 -22.8 -22.9 -23.2 -23.3 -23.5 -23.8 -24.1 -24.4 -24.6 -24.8 -25.0 -25.2 -25.3 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + NGL Inputs + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 2.61 2.60 2.63 2.66 2.72 2.76 2.81 2.86 2.92 2.99 3.04 3.10 3.13 3.18 3.22 3.23 3.26 3.29 3.35 3.38 3.41 3.43 Difference..................|-2.61 -2.60 -2.63 -2.66 -2.72 -2.76 -2.81 -2.86 -2.92 -2.99 -3.04 -3.10 -3.13 -3.18 -3.22 -3.23 -3.26 -3.29 -3.35 -3.38 -3.41 -3.43 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balancing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .41 .78 .61 .35 .41 .14 .19 .19 .29 .30 .06 .13 .05 -.12 .09 -.01 -.07 .00 -.11 -.18 -.24 -.36 Difference..................| -.41 -.78 -.61 -.35 -.41 -.14 -.19 -.19 -.29 -.30 -.06 -.13 -.05 .12 -.09 .01 .07 .00 .11 .18 .24 .36 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Inputs + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|34.77 35.45 35.71 36.28 36.51 36.95 37.33 37.64 37.92 38.05 37.90 38.20 38.21 38.17 38.59 38.58 38.65 38.85 38.88 38.89 38.88 38.80 Difference..................|-34.8 -35.4 -35.7 -36.3 -36.5 -37.0 -37.3 -37.6 -37.9 -38.1 -37.9 -38.2 -38.2 -38.2 -38.6 -38.6 -38.6 -38.9 -38.9 -38.9 -38.9 -38.8 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + The Electricity Sector + + Petroleum Inputs + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .61 .54 .52 .49 .39 .35 .37 .37 .34 .34 .36 .35 .36 .37 .35 .32 .32 .32 .31 .32 .31 .31 Difference..................| -.61 -.54 -.52 -.49 -.39 -.35 -.37 -.37 -.34 -.34 -.36 -.35 -.36 -.37 -.35 -.32 -.32 -.32 -.31 -.32 -.31 -.31 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Inputs + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|19.23 19.57 20.04 20.05 20.17 20.29 20.55 20.82 21.05 21.17 21.24 21.34 21.62 21.70 21.81 22.11 22.29 22.46 22.60 22.84 22.95 22.99 Difference..................|-19.2 -19.6 -20.0 -20.1 -20.2 -20.3 -20.6 -20.8 -21.0 -21.2 -21.2 -21.3 -21.6 -21.7 -21.8 -22.1 -22.3 -22.5 -22.6 -22.8 -22.9 -23.0 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gas Inputs + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 4.03 4.14 4.45 4.69 5.10 5.37 5.69 5.95 6.30 6.73 7.07 7.38 7.60 7.92 8.24 8.42 8.71 8.92 9.38 9.59 9.87 10.07 Difference..................|-4.03 -4.14 -4.45 -4.69 -5.10 -5.37 -5.69 -5.95 -6.30 -6.73 -7.07 -7.38 -7.60 -7.92 -8.24 -8.42 -8.71 -8.92 -9.4 -9.6 -9.9 -10.1 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Net Nuclear Generation + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 7.35 7.36 7.26 7.31 7.16 7.03 6.87 6.77 6.68 6.54 6.45 6.36 6.24 6.14 5.91 5.55 5.12 4.93 4.49 4.25 4.13 4.09 Difference..................|-7.35 -7.36 -7.26 -7.31 -7.16 -7.03 -6.87 -6.77 -6.68 -6.54 -6.45 -6.36 -6.24 -6.14 -5.91 -5.55 -5.12 -4.93 -4.49 -4.25 -4.13 -4.09 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 111. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 3 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Other Inputs + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 4.17 4.24 4.27 4.26 4.30 4.31 4.37 4.39 4.39 4.42 4.44 4.46 4.46 4.50 4.47 4.48 4.53 4.53 4.56 4.59 4.57 4.59 Difference..................|-4.17 -4.24 -4.27 -4.26 -4.30 -4.31 -4.37 -4.39 -4.39 -4.42 -4.44 -4.46 -4.46 -4.50 -4.47 -4.48 -4.53 -4.53 -4.56 -4.59 -4.57 -4.59 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balancing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .39 .41 .40 .40 .36 .36 .34 .34 .34 .32 .33 .31 .30 .30 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 Difference..................| -.39 -.41 -.40 -.40 -.36 -.36 -.34 -.34 -.34 -.32 -.33 -.31 -.30 -.30 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Inputs + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|35.77 36.26 36.93 37.21 37.48 37.70 38.19 38.64 39.11 39.52 39.88 40.20 40.58 40.93 41.06 41.16 41.26 41.43 41.62 41.86 42.11 42.33 Difference..................|-35.8 -36.3 -36.9 -37.2 -37.5 -37.7 -38.2 -38.6 -39.1 -39.5 -39.9 -40.2 -40.6 -40.9 -41.1 -41.2 -41.3 -41.4 -41.6 -41.9 -42.1 -42.3 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Consumption by Industrial Sector + + Petroleum Products Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 9.46 9.55 9.66 9.80 9.88 10.00 10.15 10.33 10.42 10.54 10.67 10.75 10.82 10.98 10.96 11.01 11.10 11.16 11.14 11.20 11.27 11.25 Difference..................| -9.5 -9.6 -9.7 -9.8 -9.9 -10.0 -10.2 -10.3 -10.4 -10.5 -10.7 -10.8 -10.8 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.1 -11.2 -11.1 -11.2 -11.3 -11.3 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Electricity Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.65 3.69 3.78 3.85 3.90 3.98 4.05 4.12 4.20 4.26 4.32 4.37 4.45 4.50 4.53 4.55 4.58 4.61 4.65 4.68 4.72 4.75 Difference..................|-3.65 -3.69 -3.78 -3.85 -3.90 -3.98 -4.05 -4.12 -4.20 -4.26 -4.32 -4.37 -4.45 -4.50 -4.53 -4.55 -4.58 -4.61 -4.65 -4.68 -4.72 -4.75 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 2.40 2.39 2.41 2.43 2.44 2.45 2.46 2.46 2.47 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.47 2.46 2.45 2.44 2.43 2.42 2.41 2.40 2.39 Difference..................|-2.40 -2.39 -2.41 -2.43 -2.44 -2.45 -2.46 -2.46 -2.47 -2.48 -2.48 -2.48 -2.48 -2.47 -2.46 -2.45 -2.44 -2.43 -2.42 -2.41 -2.40 -2.39 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gas Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|10.89 10.94 10.94 10.99 11.01 11.05 11.16 11.26 11.39 11.48 11.57 11.67 11.74 11.74 11.81 11.79 11.77 11.75 11.83 11.81 11.82 11.80 Difference..................|-10.9 -10.9 -10.9 -11.0 -11.0 -11.1 -11.2 -11.3 -11.4 -11.5 -11.6 -11.7 -11.7 -11.7 -11.8 -11.8 -11.8 -11.7 -11.8 -11.8 -11.8 -11.8 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coke Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 Difference..................| -.03 -.03 -.03 -.04 -.04 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.08 -.08 -.08 -.08 -.08 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 111. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 3 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Other Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.93 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.04 2.07 2.11 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.22 2.25 2.27 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.34 2.34 Difference..................|-1.93 -1.96 -1.99 -2.02 -2.04 -2.07 -2.11 -2.14 -2.17 -2.20 -2.22 -2.25 -2.27 -2.28 -2.29 -2.30 -2.31 -2.32 -2.33 -2.33 -2.34 -2.34 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balancing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Difference..................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|28.36 28.57 28.80 29.13 29.32 29.61 29.97 30.36 30.69 31.02 31.33 31.58 31.81 32.04 32.13 32.18 32.27 32.33 32.44 32.51 32.63 32.62 Difference..................|-28.4 -28.6 -28.8 -29.1 -29.3 -29.6 -30.0 -30.4 -30.7 -31.0 -31.3 -31.6 -31.8 -32.0 -32.1 -32.2 -32.3 -32.3 -32.4 -32.5 -32.6 -32.6 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 112. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table SET 4 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Residential Sector Consumption + + Petroleum Products Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 1.38 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.30 Difference..................|-1.38 -1.38 -1.36 -1.36 -1.35 -1.35 -1.34 -1.34 -1.33 -1.33 -1.33 -1.33 -1.33 -1.33 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.31 -1.31 -1.30 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Electricity Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.84 3.97 4.08 4.13 4.18 4.24 4.29 4.35 4.41 4.49 4.54 4.61 4.68 4.76 4.82 4.88 4.94 5.02 5.07 5.14 5.20 5.28 Difference..................|-3.84 -3.97 -4.08 -4.13 -4.18 -4.24 -4.29 -4.35 -4.41 -4.49 -4.54 -4.61 -4.68 -4.76 -4.82 -4.88 -4.94 -5.02 -5.07 -5.14 -5.20 -5.28 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .06 .06 .06 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 Difference..................| -.06 -.06 -.06 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.05 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gas Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 5.30 5.35 5.35 5.38 5.41 5.45 5.47 5.50 5.53 5.58 5.59 5.63 5.66 5.72 5.75 5.79 5.82 5.87 5.87 5.90 5.93 5.97 Difference..................|-5.30 -5.35 -5.35 -5.38 -5.41 -5.45 -5.47 -5.50 -5.53 -5.58 -5.59 -5.63 -5.66 -5.72 -5.75 -5.79 -5.82 -5.87 -5.87 -5.90 -5.93 -5.97 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Other Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .64 .64 .64 .65 .65 .65 .66 .66 .66 .67 .67 .67 .68 .68 .69 .69 .70 .70 .70 .71 .71 .72 Difference..................| -.64 -.64 -.64 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.66 -.66 -.66 -.67 -.67 -.67 -.68 -.68 -.69 -.69 -.70 -.70 -.70 -.71 -.71 -.72 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balacing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Difference..................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|11.22 11.39 11.49 11.57 11.64 11.75 11.81 11.90 11.99 12.12 12.18 12.29 12.40 12.56 12.63 12.73 12.83 12.96 13.01 13.11 13.20 13.32 Difference..................|-11.2 -11.4 -11.5 -11.6 -11.6 -11.8 -11.8 -11.9 -12.0 -12.1 -12.2 -12.3 -12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -12.7 -12.8 -13.0 -13.0 -13.1 -13.2 -13.3 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 112. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 4 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Commercial Sector Consumption + + Petroleum Products Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .65 .65 .65 .66 .66 .66 .65 .66 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .65 .64 .64 .64 .63 Difference..................| -.65 -.65 -.65 -.66 -.66 -.66 -.65 -.66 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.65 -.64 -.64 -.64 -.63 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Electricity Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.54 3.59 3.64 3.69 3.73 3.79 3.84 3.89 3.94 3.99 4.04 4.09 4.15 4.20 4.24 4.29 4.33 4.36 4.39 4.41 4.43 4.45 Difference..................|-3.54 -3.59 -3.64 -3.69 -3.73 -3.79 -3.84 -3.89 -3.94 -3.99 -4.04 -4.09 -4.15 -4.20 -4.24 -4.29 -4.33 -4.36 -4.39 -4.41 -4.43 -4.45 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 Difference..................| -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.09 -.10 -.10 -.10 -.10 -.10 -.10 -.10 -.10 -.10 -.10 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gas Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 3.44 3.47 3.49 3.52 3.56 3.59 3.62 3.65 3.67 3.70 3.72 3.75 3.77 3.80 3.82 3.84 3.85 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.85 Difference..................|-3.44 -3.47 -3.49 -3.52 -3.56 -3.59 -3.62 -3.65 -3.67 -3.70 -3.72 -3.75 -3.77 -3.80 -3.82 -3.84 -3.85 -3.86 -3.86 -3.86 -3.86 -3.85 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Other Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 Difference..................| -.02 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.03 -.04 -.04 -.04 -.04 -.04 -.04 -.04 -.04 -.04 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balancing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Difference..................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 7.74 7.83 7.90 7.98 8.06 8.15 8.23 8.31 8.39 8.47 8.55 8.63 8.70 8.78 8.85 8.91 8.96 9.00 9.04 9.06 9.07 9.08 Difference..................|-7.74 -7.83 -7.90 -7.98 -8.06 -8.15 -8.23 -8.31 -8.39 -8.47 -8.55 -8.63 -8.70 -8.78 -8.85 -8.91 -8.96 -9.0 -9.0 -9.1 -9.1 -9.1 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 112. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 4 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Transportation Sector Cons. + + Petroleum Products Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|25.75 26.22 26.78 27.31 27.80 28.30 28.81 29.37 29.85 30.33 30.81 31.25 31.58 31.92 32.21 32.51 32.80 33.06 33.36 33.64 33.90 34.14 Difference..................|-25.7 -26.2 -26.8 -27.3 -27.8 -28.3 -28.8 -29.4 -29.8 -30.3 -30.8 -31.2 -31.6 -31.9 -32.2 -32.5 -32.8 -33.1 -33.4 -33.6 -33.9 -34.1 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Electricty Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .06 .06 .07 .07 .08 .10 .11 .12 .13 .14 .15 .16 .16 .17 .18 .18 .19 .20 .20 .21 .21 .22 Difference..................| -.06 -.06 -.07 -.07 -.08 -.10 -.11 -.12 -.13 -.14 -.15 -.16 -.16 -.17 -.18 -.18 -.19 -.20 -.20 -.21 -.21 -.22 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gas Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .85 .85 .89 .90 .95 .97 1.00 1.04 1.07 1.11 1.16 1.19 1.19 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.29 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.35 1.37 Difference..................| -.85 -.85 -.89 -.90 -.95 -.97 -1.00 -1.04 -1.07 -1.11 -1.16 -1.19 -1.19 -1.24 -1.25 -1.25 -1.29 -1.30 -1.32 -1.35 -1.35 -1.37 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Other Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .03 .06 .08 .10 .13 .15 .17 .19 .21 .23 .25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 Difference..................| -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.03 -.06 -.08 -.10 -.13 -.15 -.17 -.19 -.21 -.23 -.25 -.26 -.27 -.28 -.29 -.30 -.31 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balacing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Difference..................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|26.66 27.14 27.74 28.30 28.85 29.40 29.97 30.61 31.15 31.71 32.26 32.77 33.12 33.54 33.87 34.20 34.54 34.83 35.16 35.48 35.76 36.04 Difference..................|-26.7 -27.1 -27.7 -28.3 -28.8 -29.4 -30.0 -30.6 -31.2 -31.7 -32.3 -32.8 -33.1 -33.5 -33.9 -34.2 -34.5 -34.8 -35.2 -35.5 -35.8 -36.0 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Enegy Consumed + + Petroleum Products Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|37.85 38.35 38.97 39.62 40.08 40.66 41.32 42.06 42.59 43.20 43.83 44.33 44.73 45.25 45.49 45.82 46.20 46.50 46.77 47.10 47.42 47.64 Difference..................|-37.8 -38.3 -39.0 -39.6 -40.1 -40.7 -41.3 -42.1 -42.6 -43.2 -43.8 -44.3 -44.7 -45.3 -45.5 -45.8 -46.2 -46.5 -46.8 -47.1 -47.4 -47.6 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 112. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 4 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Electricity Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|11.11 11.32 11.56 11.73 11.90 12.10 12.29 12.48 12.68 12.88 13.05 13.23 13.44 13.63 13.77 13.90 14.04 14.19 14.31 14.44 14.57 14.70 Difference..................|-11.1 -11.3 -11.6 -11.7 -11.9 -12.1 -12.3 -12.5 -12.7 -12.9 -13.1 -13.2 -13.4 -13.6 -13.8 -13.9 -14.0 -14.2 -14.3 -14.4 -14.6 -14.7 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|21.77 22.11 22.60 22.62 22.75 22.88 23.16 23.43 23.67 23.79 23.86 23.96 24.24 24.32 24.42 24.71 24.87 25.03 25.16 25.40 25.50 25.53 Difference..................|-21.8 -22.1 -22.6 -22.6 -22.7 -22.9 -23.2 -23.4 -23.7 -23.8 -23.9 -24.0 -24.2 -24.3 -24.4 -24.7 -24.9 -25.0 -25.2 -25.4 -25.5 -25.5 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gas Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|24.51 24.74 25.12 25.49 26.03 26.43 26.93 27.38 27.96 28.60 29.12 29.63 29.96 30.42 30.88 31.09 31.44 31.68 32.27 32.51 32.82 33.06 Difference..................|-24.5 -24.7 -25.1 -25.5 -26.0 -26.4 -26.9 -27.4 -28.0 -28.6 -29.1 -29.6 -30.0 -30.4 -30.9 -31.1 -31.4 -31.7 -32.3 -32.5 -32.8 -33.1 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Nuclear Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 7.35 7.36 7.26 7.31 7.16 7.03 6.87 6.77 6.68 6.54 6.45 6.36 6.24 6.14 5.91 5.55 5.12 4.93 4.49 4.25 4.13 4.09 Difference..................|-7.35 -7.36 -7.26 -7.31 -7.16 -7.03 -6.87 -6.77 -6.68 -6.54 -6.45 -6.36 -6.24 -6.14 -5.91 -5.55 -5.12 -4.93 -4.49 -4.25 -4.13 -4.09 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coke Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 Difference..................| -.03 -.03 -.03 -.04 -.04 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.08 -.08 -.08 -.08 -.08 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Other Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 6.77 6.88 6.94 6.97 7.03 7.10 7.22 7.30 7.36 7.44 7.51 7.58 7.63 7.72 7.71 7.76 7.84 7.86 7.91 7.96 7.97 8.00 Difference..................|-6.77 -6.88 -6.94 -6.97 -7.03 -7.10 -7.22 -7.30 -7.36 -7.44 -7.51 -7.58 -7.63 -7.72 -7.71 -7.76 -7.84 -7.86 -7.91 -7.96 -7.97 -8.00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balancing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Difference..................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Energy Consumed + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|109.4 110.8 112.5 113.8 115.0 116.3 117.8 119.5 121.0 122.5 123.9 125.2 126.3 127.6 128.3 128.9 129.6 130.3 131.0 131.7 132.5 133.1 Difference..................| -109 -111 -112 -114 -115 -116 -118 -119 -121 -123 -124 -125 -126 -128 -128 -129 -130 -130 -131 -132 -132 -133 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 116. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table SET 5 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ + Energy Imports + + Petroleum Product Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|-3.08 -2.90 -3.26 -3.34 -3.57 -3.71 -3.99 -4.42 -4.67 -5.15 -5.93 -6.13 -6.51 -7.08 -6.91 -7.23 -7.55 -7.65 -7.90 -8.22 -8.54 -8.84 Difference..................| 3.08 2.90 3.26 3.34 3.57 3.71 3.99 4.42 4.67 5.15 5.93 6.13 6.51 7.08 6.91 7.23 7.55 7.65 7.90 8.22 8.54 8.84 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Electricity Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| -.39 -.41 -.40 -.40 -.36 -.36 -.34 -.34 -.34 -.32 -.33 -.31 -.30 -.30 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 -.28 Difference..................| .39 .41 .40 .40 .36 .36 .34 .34 .34 .32 .33 .31 .30 .30 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Exports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 2.17 2.22 2.29 2.36 2.39 2.42 2.45 2.49 2.52 2.56 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.71 2.75 2.79 2.84 2.87 2.90 2.95 2.99 3.04 Difference..................|-2.17 -2.22 -2.29 -2.36 -2.39 -2.42 -2.45 -2.49 -2.52 -2.56 -2.60 -2.65 -2.70 -2.71 -2.75 -2.79 -2.84 -2.87 -2.90 -2.95 -2.99 -3.04 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gas Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|-3.61 -3.93 -3.95 -3.98 -4.02 -4.06 -4.11 -4.15 -4.20 -4.26 -4.31 -4.37 -4.44 -4.52 -4.60 -4.68 -4.75 -4.81 -4.87 -4.92 -4.97 -5.02 Difference..................| 3.61 3.93 3.95 3.98 4.02 4.06 4.11 4.15 4.20 4.26 4.31 4.37 4.44 4.52 4.60 4.68 4.75 4.81 4.87 4.92 4.97 5.02 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Other Energy Imports (if any) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| -.03 -.03 -.03 -.04 -.04 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.08 -.08 -.08 -.08 -.08 Difference..................| .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balacing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Difference..................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Total Energy Imports + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|-4.93 -5.04 -5.36 -5.40 -5.61 -5.77 -6.04 -6.48 -6.74 -7.22 -8.02 -8.23 -8.62 -9.3 -9.1 -9.5 -9.8 -10.0 -10.2 -10.5 -10.9 -11.2 Difference..................| 4.93 5.04 5.36 5.40 5.61 5.77 6.04 6.48 6.74 7.22 8.02 8.23 8.62 9.26 9.12 9.46 9.81 9.95 10.22 10.54 10.87 11.19 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 116. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 5 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Domestic Energy Production + + Petroleum Products Produced + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|34.77 35.45 35.71 36.28 36.51 36.95 37.33 37.64 37.92 38.05 37.90 38.20 38.21 38.17 38.59 38.58 38.65 38.85 38.88 38.89 38.88 38.80 Difference..................|-34.8 -35.4 -35.7 -36.3 -36.5 -37.0 -37.3 -37.6 -37.9 -38.1 -37.9 -38.2 -38.2 -38.2 -38.6 -38.6 -38.6 -38.9 -38.9 -38.9 -38.9 -38.8 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Electricity Produced + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|10.72 10.91 11.17 11.33 11.54 11.74 11.95 12.14 12.34 12.56 12.73 12.92 13.13 13.34 13.48 13.63 13.76 13.91 14.03 14.16 14.29 14.42 Difference..................|-10.7 -10.9 -11.2 -11.3 -11.5 -11.7 -11.9 -12.1 -12.3 -12.6 -12.7 -12.9 -13.1 -13.3 -13.5 -13.6 -13.8 -13.9 -14.0 -14.2 -14.3 -14.4 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coal Produced + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|23.94 24.34 24.90 24.99 25.14 25.31 25.62 25.97 26.16 26.38 26.47 26.62 26.94 27.04 27.20 27.50 27.73 27.93 28.08 28.37 28.51 28.59 Difference..................|-23.9 -24.3 -24.9 -25.0 -25.1 -25.3 -25.6 -26.0 -26.2 -26.4 -26.5 -26.6 -26.9 -27.0 -27.2 -27.5 -27.7 -27.9 -28.1 -28.4 -28.5 -28.6 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Gas Produced + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|20.92 20.84 21.18 21.53 22.04 22.42 22.88 23.29 23.83 24.41 24.91 25.39 25.67 26.05 26.42 26.57 26.85 27.04 27.57 27.76 28.02 28.21 Difference..................|-20.9 -20.8 -21.2 -21.5 -22.0 -22.4 -22.9 -23.3 -23.8 -24.4 -24.9 -25.4 -25.7 -26.0 -26.4 -26.6 -26.8 -27.0 -27.6 -27.8 -28.0 -28.2 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Nuclear Produced + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 7.35 7.36 7.26 7.31 7.16 7.03 6.87 6.77 6.68 6.54 6.45 6.36 6.24 6.14 5.91 5.55 5.12 4.93 4.49 4.25 4.13 4.09 Difference..................|-7.35 -7.36 -7.26 -7.31 -7.16 -7.03 -6.87 -6.77 -6.68 -6.54 -6.45 -6.36 -6.24 -6.14 -5.91 -5.55 -5.12 -4.93 -4.49 -4.25 -4.13 -4.09 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Coke Produced (if any) + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .03 .03 .03 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 Difference..................| -.03 -.03 -.03 -.04 -.04 -.05 -.05 -.05 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.07 -.08 -.08 -.08 -.08 -.08 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Other Energy Produced + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| 7.30 7.45 7.50 7.51 7.57 7.62 7.74 7.80 7.85 7.92 7.93 7.96 8.00 8.04 8.05 8.09 8.15 8.16 8.21 8.24 8.24 8.27 Difference..................|-7.30 -7.45 -7.50 -7.51 -7.57 -7.62 -7.74 -7.80 -7.85 -7.92 -7.93 -7.96 -8.00 -8.04 -8.05 -8.09 -8.15 -8.16 -8.21 -8.24 -8.24 -8.27 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + Balancing Item + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Difference..................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y M O D E L I N G S Y S T E M + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 116. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) SET 5 of 5 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Category and Source |1999 |2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |2009 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014 |2015 |2016 |2017 |2018 |2019 |2020 ________________________________|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____ + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Total Energy Produced + STIFS.......................| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NEMS........................|105.0 106.4 107.7 109.0 110.0 111.1 112.4 113.7 114.8 115.9 116.4 117.5 118.3 118.9 119.7 120.0 120.3 120.9 121.3 121.8 122.2 122.5 Difference..................| -105 -106 -108 -109 -110 -111 -112 -114 -115 -116 -116 -118 -118 -119 -120 -120 -120 -121 -121 -122 -122 -122 Percent Difference..........| .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 + + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ aeo98b.d100197a run in /output on Wed Oct 1 18:03:49 EDT 1997 + ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E N E R G Y I N F O R M A T I O N A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 1 LIST OF TABLES THAT WERE REPORTED Table 1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Continued) Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued) Table 3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (Continued) Table 4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued) Table 5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued) Table 6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued) Table 7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption (Continued) Table 8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Continued) Table 9. Electricity Generating Capability (Continued) Table 10. Electricity Trade (Continued) Table 11. Petroleum Supply and Disposition Balance (Continued) Table 12. Petroleum Product Prices (Continued) Table 13. Natural Gas Supply and Disposition (Continued) Table 14. Oil and Gas Supply (Continued) Table 15. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Continued) Table 16. Renewable Energy Generating Capability and Generation (Continued) Table 17. Carbon Emissions by Sector and Source (Continued) Table 18. Macroeconomic Indicators (Continued) Table 19. International Petroleum Supply and Disposition Summary (Continued) Table 20. Conversion Factors (Continued) Table 21. Average Direct Expenditures for Energy per Household (Continued) Table 22. Natural Gas Prices, Margins and Revenues (Continued) Table 23. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Crude Oil Equivalency Summary (Continued) Table 24. Renewable Energy, Consumption by Sector and Source 1/ (Continued) Table 25. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Continued) Table 73. Oil and Gas, End-of-Year Reserves and Annual Reserve Additions (Continued) Table 92. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) Table 110. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) Table 111. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) Table 112. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued) Table 116. NEMS/STIFS Comparison Table (Continued)