ࡱ>   tRoot Entry F%L1Table/WordDocumentSummaryInformation(  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~t * * Heading 9 5<A@<Default Paragraph Font..TOC 8 X !66TOC 4 X !66TOC 38 X !622TOC 2 X !44TOC 1 X !5;( B(Footer $(R(Header $<&@a<Footnote Referenc    !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWY`abcdefghijklmnopqrsuvwxyz{eCJEH:@r: Footnote Text $CJ..TOC 9 X !&)@& Page Number0O0longlist0x22 longquote $00 references 0*O*table $CJ,>,Title$ 5;CJ**sublist ,o,code  CJOJQJ!U8bW,! [8@8Normal $CJOJQJmH 4@4 Heading 1 56;0@0 Heading 256.@. Heading 35.@. Heading 462@2 Heading 5 x6.@. Heading 6 x6@6 Heading 7 @&6CJ*@* Heading 85* @* Heading 9 5<A@<Default Paragraph Font.@.TOC 8 X !6@6TOC 4 X !6@6TOC 38 X !62@2TOC 2 X !4@4TOC 1 X !5;( @B(Footer $(@R(Header $<&@a<Footnote ReferenceCJEH:@r: Foos changed from 0.2%/year to 0.025%/year and the 2011-2020 growth rate is changed from 1.5%/year to 0.45%/year. (2) TV electricity consumption: Advanced Scenario We created a an energy consumption multiplier to calibrate energy consumption to off-line analysis estimates in 2010 and 2020. The multiplier is set to 1.0 in 2000 and allowed to decline by a constant rate (0.9%/year) between 2001 and 2010 such that the resulting energy consumption in 2010 is equivalent to that predicted off-line. Similarly, the 2010 multiplier value is allowed to decline by a constant rate (1.05%/year) between 2011 and 2020 such that the resulting energy consumption in 2020 is equivalent to that predicted off-line. The source code on lines 11178 to 11179 is replaced by the following code segment: TVMOD = 1.0 ! LBNL IF (Y>11) THEN ! LBNL TVMOD = (1.0 - 0.009)**(Y-11) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV ENDIF ! LBNL IF (Y>21) THEN ! LBNL TVMOD = (1.0 - 0.009)**(11)*(1.0 - 0.0105)**(Y-21) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV ENDIF ! LBNL DO 50 D=1,MNUMCR-2 TVCON(Y,D)=0.0 DO 50 B=1,MNUMBLDG C TVCON(y,d)=TVCON(y,d)+(TVEQP(Y,B,D)*TVNUEC(Y,d,b)) C 1 *((PRICES(4,D,CURIYR)/PRICES(4,D,4))**ALPHA) TVCON(y,d)=TVCON(y,d)+((TVEQP(Y,B,D)*TVNUEC(Y,d,b)) ! LBNL 1 *((PRICES(4,D,CURIYR)/PRICES(4,D,4))**ALPHA))*TVMOD ! LBNL Moderate Scenario Same as above, except the 2011-2020 decline rate is changed from 1.05%/year to 0.5%/year. (3) Lighting electricity consumption Advanced Scenario We created a an energy consumption multiplier to calibrate energy consumption to off-line analysis estimates in 2010 and 2020. The multiplier is set to 1.0 in 2000 and allowed to decline by a constant rate (1.2%/year) between 2001 and 2010 such that the resulting energy consumption in 2010 is equivalent to that predicted off-line. Similarly, the 2010 multiplier value is allowed to decline by a constant rate (1.575%/year) between 2011 and 2020 such that the resulting energy consumption in 2020 is equivalent to that predicted off-line. The source code on lines 10900 to 10907 is replaced by the following code segment: LTMOD = 1.0 ! LBNL IF (Y>11) THEN ! LBNL LTMOD = (1.0-0.012)**(Y-11) ! LBNL OK FOR 2010 ADV END IF ! LBNL IF (Y>21) THEN ! LBNL LTMOD = (1.0-0.012)**(11)*(1.0-0.01575)**(Y-21) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV END IF ! LBNL DO 50 D=1,MNUMCR-2 LTCON(Y,D)=0.0 DO 50 B=1,MNUMBLDG ltcon(y,d)=ltcon(y,d)+((eh(y,b,d)*ltnuec(y,b,d) + ! LBNL 1nh(y-1,b,d)*(SQNEW(y-1,b,d)/SQRFOOT(4,B,D))*ltnuec(y-1,B,D)+ ! LBNL 1 HSEADD(y,b,d)*sqftlts(y,b,d)*ltnuec(y,B,D)+ ! LBNL 2( EH(Y,B,D)+NH(Y,B,D))*TCHNUEC(Y,B,D)*DISPLACE) ! LBNL 5*(((PRICES(4,D,CURIYR))/PRICES(4,D,4))**ALPHA))*LTMOD ! LBNL Moderate Scenario Same as above, except the 2001-2010 decline rate is changed from 1.2%/year to 0.08%/year and the 2011-2020 growth rate is changed from 1.5%/year to 0.8%/year. (4) Other electricity consumption (coils, motors, electronics sub-categories): Advanced Scenario We created a an energy consumption multiplier to calibrate energy consumption to off-line analysis estimates in 2010 and 2020. The other electricity is split into three components: coils, motors, and electronics. The multiplier is set to 1.0 in 2000 and allowed to decline by a constant rate (0.9%/year for coils, 1.1%/year for motors, and 2.95%/year for electronics) between 2001 and 2010 such that the resulting energy consumption in 2010 is equivalent to that predicted off-line. Similarly, the 2010 multiplier value is allowed to decline by a constant rate (0.15%/year for coils, 0.75%/year for motors, and 7.13%/year for electronics) between 2011 and 2020 such that the resulting energy consumption in 2020 is equivalent to that predicted off-line. The source code on lines 11283 to 11297 is replaced by the following code segment: COILRED = 1.0 ! LBNL MOTRRED = 1.0 ! LBNL ELECRED = 1.0 ! LBNL IF (Y>11) THEN ! LBNL COILRED = (1.0-0.0090)**(Y-11) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV MOTRRED = (1.0-0.0110)**(Y-11) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV ELECRED = (1.0-0.0295)**(Y-11) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV ENDIF ! LBNL IF (Y>21) THEN COILRED = (1.0-0.0090)**(11)*(1.0-0.0015)**(Y-21) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV MOTRRED = (1.0-0.0110)**(11)*(1.0-0.0075)**(Y-21) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV ELECRED = (1.0-0.0295)**(11)*(1.0-0.0713)**(Y-21) ! LBNL OK FOR ADV ENDIF C WRITE(*,*)'LBNL RES OTHER MOD C,M,E ',Y+1989+1, C * COILRED,MOTRRED,ELECRED DO 20 D=1,MNUMCR-2 ELTRCN(Y+1,D)=0.0 COILCN(Y+1,D)=0.0 MOTRCN(Y+1,D)=0.0 DO 20 B=1,MNUMBLDG ELTRCN(Y+1,D)=ELTRCN(Y+1,D)+((NH(Y+1,B,D)+EH(Y+1,B,D)) 1 *( ELTRUEC(D,B)*ELTRPEN(Y)))*ELECRED ! LBNL 2 *((PRICES(4,D,CURIYR)/PRICES(4,D,4))**ALPHA) COILCN(Y+1,D)=COILCN(Y+1,D)+((NH(Y+1,B,D)+EH(Y+1,B,D)) 1 *( COILUEC(D,B)*COILPEN(Y)))*COILRED ! LBNL 2 *((PRICES(4,D,CURIYR)/PRICES(4,D,4))**ALPHA) MOTRCN(Y+1,D)=MOTRCN(Y+1,D)+((NH(Y+1,B,D)+EH(Y+1,B,D)) 1 *( MOTRUEC(D,B)*MOTRPEN(Y)))*MOTRRED ! LBNL 2 *((PRICES(4,D,CURIYR)/PRICES(4,D,4))**ALPHA) 20 CONTINUE Moderate Scenario Same as above, except the 2001-2010 decline rate for electronics is changed from 2.95%/year to 2.73%/year, the 2011-2020 decline rate for coils is changed from 0.75%/year to 0.55%/year, and the 2011-2020 decline rate for electronics is changed from 7.13%/year to 2.73%/year. (5) New home thermal shell indices: Advanced Scenario We created a an thermal shell index multiplier to improve the shell efficiency of new homes. The multiplier is set to 1.0 in 2000 and allowed to decline by a constant rate (1.0%/year) between 2001 and 2010. Similarly, the 2010 multiplier value is allowed to decline by a constant rate (2.0%/year) between 2011 and 2020. (RATIONALE?) The following code is inserted on line 4355: SHMOD = 1.0 IF (CURIYR > 11) THEN SHMOD = 1.0 - 0.01*(CURIYR-11) ! advanced ENDIF IF (CURIYR > 21) THEN SHMOD = 0.9 - 0.02*(CURIYR-21) ! advanced ENDIF IF (F.EQ.1 .AND. R.EQ.1) THEN WRITE(*,*)'LBNL NEW SHELL MOD ',SHMOD ENDIF And the following segment of code is inserted on line 4368: NHSHELL(CURIYR,F,R) = NHSHELL(CURIYR,F,R) * SHMOD ! LBNL NCSHELL(CURIYR,R)= NCSHELL(CURIYR,R) * SHMOD ! LBNL Moderate Scenario No changes were made to new home thermal shell indices in the Moderate Scenario. (6) Price-induced discount rate changes: Advanced Scenario Price-induced discount rate changes were removed. The following segment of code exists in 10 places in the source code (beginning on lines: 3694, 5011, 5945, 6544, 7202, 8306, 8834, 9532, 10116, and 10765). All 10 instances of this code were commented out from the model (as shown). C IF ((CURIYR.GT.10).AND. C 1 (PRICES(F,R,CURIYR).GT.PRICES(F,R,10))) THEN C HRDRATE=RTECBTA1(RECTY)/RTECBTA2(RECTY) C ELIGBLE=HRDRATE - 0.15 C IF (ELIGBLE.GT.0.0) THEN C HRDADJ= ELIGBLE * C * ((PRICES(F,R,CURIYR)/PRICES(F,R,10))**ALPHA1 ) C C RTECBTA1(RECTY) = (HRDADJ+0.15) * RTECBTA2(RECTY) C END IF C END IF Moderate Scenario Same as the Advanced Scenario. Summary of input file changes Advanced Case In the rtekty Standards were implemented by removing all technologies not satisfying the efficiency criteria in the rtekty technology input file for the following technologies: TechnologyEfficiencyStart Dateclothes washers*horizontal axis2003dish washers0.53 (units?)2010gas water heaters0.60 EF2004elec water heaters0.95 EF2004Refrigerators421 kWh/yr2010Freezers413 kWh/yr2010room air conditioners10.5 SEER2010central air conditioners13 SEER2006elec. air-source heat pumps13 SEER/7.6 HSPF2006* the default NEMS horizontal axis clothes washer efficiency is used. In addition to standards, the following implicit discount rate modifications were implemented in the rtekty technology characteristics input file: TechnologyOld Implicit Discount RateNew Implicit Discount RatePeriodclothes washers391%15%2001-2020clothes dryers90%15%2002-2020refrigerators19%15%2001-2020freezers39%15%2001-2020distillate waterheater150%15%2001-2020elec waterheater83%18%2001-2020gas waterheater47%25%2001-2020air/ground source heat pump42%15%2001-2020room air conditioners125%15%2001-2020central air conditioners50%152001-2020gas dryers47%15%2001-2020gas fan #4152.5%2011-2020Gas fan #3152.5%2005-2020Air source heat pump cooling50%15%2001-2020 The following equipment efficiency characteristics were modified in the rtekty input file: Technologynew efficiencyold efficiencyPeriodAir source heat pump 44.02.78/2.932011-2014-2020central air conditioner #46.05.282011-2020Elec HP Cooling (1/2)3.812.93/3.522006-2020/2014Refridgorator 33504002005-2010Refridgorator 31504002011-2020 Finally, the following capital cost characteristics were modified in the rtekty input file: Technologynew capital costold capital costPeriodAir source heat pump 3266532172001-2004Air source heat pump 3266531852005-2014Air source heat pump 3266530552015-2020Air source heat pump 4266535102011-2014Air source heat pump 4266533802015-2020Fan #4130016502011-2014Fan #4130016002015-20202Gas Radiator484560002011-2014Gas Radiator484557502015-2020Gas Clothes Dryer 3340400/4252001-2020Dryer 46502360/2000/18002001-2020Refrigerator #3530850/550/7002001-2020Room air conditioners 14507602005-2020 Commercial Sector For the commercial sector, detailed off-line analysis is used to estimate the policy induced energy savings potential. We then change hurdle rates, technology costs, and growth trends in CEF-NEMS to match the results of that forecast to the energy savings results from our detailed spreadsheet analysis. The assumptions for the spreadsheet analysis are contained in Appendices B-1 and C-1. The changes implemented to recreate the off-line energy savings estimates in the Commercial Module of CEF-NEMS are listed below. In this section, source code modifications are explicitly listed and input file changes are summarized. Source code modifications were made to the Residential Module in the following areas: Decision rule shares Price-induced discount rate changes Gas other energy consumption Input file modifications were made to the Residential Module in the following areas: Distribution of technology choice time preference premiums (hurdle rates) (2) Technology characteristics (capital costs and efficiencies) Detailed Source Code Changes Decision rule shares Advanced Scenario We modified decision rule shares for end-uses where discount rate changes were not sufficient to reach the desired energy savings (ventilation, space heating, and space cooling). For space heating, behavior shares for new equipment purchases were set to 70% same fuel. For space cooling, behavior shares for new equipment purchases were set to 50% least cost and 50% same fuel. For Ventilation, all decisions were set to least cost. On line 3756, the following code is inserted to modify decision rule shares: C LBNL -- MODIFY DECISION RULES HERE C BehaviorShare(s,b,d,u) C C space heating -- s=1,b=all,d=1,u=all 1.0 for C IF (CURIYR .EQ. 12 .AND. CURITR .EQ. 1) THEN WRITE(*,*)'LBNL -- MODIFYING DECISON RULES',CURIYR+1989 DO b= 1, CMnumBldg C SPACE HEATING BehaviorShare(1,b,1,1) = 0.30 ! set most BehaviorShare(1,b,1,2) = 0.70 ! decisions to BehaviorShare(1,b,1,3) = 0.00 ! same fuel DO d= 1, CMDecision C SPACE COOLING if (d .le. 2) then BehaviorShare(2,b,d,1) = 0.50 ! set new/repl BehaviorShare(2,b,d,2) = 0.50 ! decisions to BehaviorShare(2,b,d,3) = 0.00 ! least cost endif C VENTILATION BehaviorShare(4,b,d,1) = 1.00 ! set all BehaviorShare(4,b,d,2) = 0.00 ! decisions to BehaviorShare(4,b,d,3) = 0.00 ! least cost ENDDO ENDDO ENDIF C END LBNL Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario except that Behavior Shares for space heating were set to 100% same fuel. (2) Price-induced discount rate changes: Advanced Scenario Price-induced discuont rate changes were removed. The following segment of code exists in 2 places in the source code (beginning on lines: 3930 and 4504). Both instances of this code were commented out from the model (as shown): C IF (PriceDelta(f).GT.1.0) THEN ! del LBNL REMOVE C IF (EffectHurdle.GT.0.15) ! del LBNL REMOVE C $ EffectHurdle = (EffectHurdle - 0.15) * ! del LBNL REMOVE C $ PriceDelta(f) ** HurdleElas(r,s,f) ! del LBNL REMOVE C $ + 0.15 ! del LBNL REMOVE C END IF ! Check for rising prices and rate over 15 percent. LBNL REMOVE Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario. (3) Gas other energy Consumption Advanced Scenario We created a an efficiency multiplier to calibrate energy consumption to off-line analysis estimates in 2010 and 2020. The efficiency for other gas energy consumption was increased at a rate of 1%/year between 2001 and 2010 and 5%/year between 2011 and 2020. The following code segment was inserted... C LBNL -- add efficiency to gas other if (CURIYR .gt. 11 .AND. CURIYR .LE. 21) then AverageEfficiency(r,b,s,2)=PrevYrAverageEfficiency(r,b,s,2) * * (1.0 + 0.010) elseif (CURIYR .GT. 21) then AverageEfficiency(r,b,s,2)=PrevYrAverageEfficiency(r,b,s,2) * * (1.0 + 0.160) ! LBNL 6-25-99 endif C END LBNL Moderate Scenario Same as advanced case except the efficiency was increased at a rate of 9%/year between 2011 and 2020. Summary of input file changes Advanced Case In the ktech Lighting standards were changed to match the aeo hitech case. In the ktech Standards were implemented by improving the efficiency and/or changing the available date for the following technologies: TechnologyEfficiencyStart DateElectric rooftop a/c 2005 typical2.72005Electric rooftop a/c 2015 typical2.52010Gas furnace 2015 typical0.812010Gas boiler 2015 typicalunchanged2010* the default NEMS horizontal axis clothes washer efficiency is used. In addition to standards, the following implicit discount rate modifications were implemented in the kprem technology characteristics input file: TechnologyDiscount RateOld Discount Rate SharesNew Discount Rate SharesPeriodSpace Heating100.27002001-1.5290.2540.100.5540.2040.150.3090.1620.250.1990.1000.250.1360.0100.25Space Cooling100.2700& ventilation1.5290.2540& Refridgeration0.5540.20400.3090.16200.1990.10000.1360.0101Hot Water Heating100.2700.101.5290.2540.100.5540.2040.100.3090.1620.200.1990.1000.250.1360.0100.25Cooking100.2700.31.5290.2540.30.5540.2040.20.3090.1620.20.1990.10000.1360.0100Lighting100.2700.151.5290.2540.150.5540.2040.200.3090.1620.200.1990.0600.150.1360.0500.15100.2701.5290.2540.5540.2040.3090.1620.1990.1000.1360.010 In addition to standards, the following implicit discount rate modifications were implemented in the kprem technology characteristics input file: DISCOUNT RATETechnology101.5290.5540.3090.1990.136PeriodSpace HeatingNEMS27%25.4%20.4%16.2%10%1%2001-2020CEF-NEMS010%25%25%25%25%2001-2010CEF-NEMS00000100%2011-2020Space CoolingNEMS27%25.4%20.4%16.2%10%1%2001-2020CEF-NEMS00000100%2001-2020Hot Water HeatingNEMS27%25.4%20.4%16.2%10%1%2001-2020CEF-NEMS10%10%10%20%25%25%2001-2010CEF-NEMS00000100%2011-2020VentilationNEMS27%25.4%20.4%16.2%10%1%2001-2020CEF-NEMS00000100%2001-2020CookingNEMS27%25.4%20.4%16.2%10%1%2001-2020CEF-NEMS30%30%20%20%002001-201025%20%20%15%10%10%2011-2020LightingNEMS27%25.4%20.4%16.2%6%5%2001-2020CEF-NEMS15%15%20%20%15%15%2001-2010CEF-NEMS000025%75%2011-20RefrigerationNEMS27%25.4%20.4%16.2%10%1%2001-2020CEF-NEMS00000100%2001-2020 Finally, the following capital cost characteristics were modified in the rtekty input file: The following equipment efficiency Technologynew capital costold capital costPeriodAir source heat pump 3266532172001-2004Air source heat pump 3266531852005-2014Air source heat pump 3266530552015-2020Air source heat pump 4266535102011-2014Air source heat pump 4266533802015-2020Fan #4130016502011-2014Fan #4130016002015-20202Gas Radiator484560002011-2014Gas Radiator484557502015-2020Gas Clothes Dryer 3340400/4252001-2020Dryer 46502360/2000/18002001-2020Refrigerator #3530850/550/7002001-2020Room air conditioners 14507602005-2020 Industrial Sector For the industrial sector, ERNST HERE. The changes implemented to model the CEF Scenarioes in the Industrial Module of CEF-NEMS are listed below. In this section, source code modifications are explicitly listed and input file changes are summarized. Source code modifications were made to the Residential Module in the following areas: Updates to the AEO99 Version of NEMS Threshold for price-induced changes to retirement rates Retirement rate changes Hi-tech retirement rate multiplier Production throughputs Positive TPC values Building energy use Steam boiler efficiency Input file modifications were made to the Residential Module in the following areas: (1) Process step tpc rates and process step initial uec values Detailed Source Code Changes Updates to the AEO99 Version of NEMS Advanced Scenario We obtained updates to the AEO99 Version of NEMS from Crawford Honeycutt at EIA. These updates were included in the CEF Version of the NEMS Model (CEF-NEMS). The following code was added to the Industrial Module: Line 6617 was commented out and replaced as shown below: C STEMCUR= STEMCURx - BYPSTM ! LBNL STEMCUR= STEMCURx ! LBNL change suggested by crawford Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario. (2) Threshold for price-induced changes to retirement rates Advanced Scenario The threshold for price-induced changes in retirement rates is raised from 110% to 200%. This modification occurs in 2 places in the code on lines 4499 and 4506. An example of the modification appears below: C if(RetirePrat.lt.1.1) RetirePrat=1.0 ! LBNL if(RetirePrat.lt.2.0) RetirePrat=1.0 ! LBNL Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario. (3) Retirement rate changes Advanced Scenario Retirement rates by sub-sector (and process type for steel) were set based on CEF analysis. On line 4464, the following code is inserted: C LBNL PUT IN REVISED RETIREMENT RATES HERE -- RATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN READ IN C ADVANCED CASE IF (IYR.GE.2000) THEN ! TRIGGER YEAR IF (INDDIR.GE.1 .AND. INDDIR .LE. 5) THEN ! ag, coal min, o/g min, mtls DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.025 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.6) THEN ! construction DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.025 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.7) THEN ! food DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.021 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.8) THEN ! pulp and paper DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.023 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.9) THEN ! bulk chemicals DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.025 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.10) THEN ! glass DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.014 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.11) THEN ! cement DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.020 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.12) THEN ! iron and steel DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.029 ! moderate ENDDO PRODRETR(6) = 0.015 ! blast furn moderate PRODRETR(7) = 0.018 ! elec arc furn moderate PRODRETR(8) = 0.018 ! coke oven advanced moderate ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.13) THEN ! aluminum DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.023 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.14) THEN ! metal durables DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.019 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF IF (INDDIR.EQ.15) THEN ! other manufacturing DO IS = 1,MPASTP PRODRETR(IS) = 0.025 ! moderate ENDDO ENDIF ENDIF ! TRIGGER YEAR Price-induced... Non-zero retirement rates for non-intensive industrial sub-sectors are preserved. On line 4469, the following four lines are commented out (as shown): C if (inddir.le.6.or.inddir.ge.14) then C do is = 1,mpastp C prodretr(is)=0.0 C enddo C do is = 1,mpastp C if(inddir.eq.6) then C prodretr(1)=.02 C elseif((inddir.lt.6.or.inddir.ge.14).and. C 1 RetirePrat.lt.1.1) then ! LBNL C 1 RetirePrat.lt.2.0) then ! LBNL C prodretr(is)=.0 C else C prodretr(is)=.02 C ENDIF C enddo C endif Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario. (4) Hi-tech retirement rate multiplier Advanced Scenario The hi-tech retirement rate multiplier for the is modified to be consistent with the CEF retirement rates. Line 4518 is commented out of the code and replaced (as shown below): C RetireRate(is)=3.0*PRODRETR(IS)*RetirePriceFactor RetireRate(is)=2.0*PRODRETR(IS)*RetirePriceFactor ! LBNL RET ABOVE Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario. (5) Production throughputs Advanced Scenario On line 4197, the following segment of code is inserted: C PRODFLOW MODIFICATIONS IF (IY.GE.11) THEN IF (INDDIR.EQ.11) THEN ! cement IF (IS.EQ.2 .OR. IS.EQ.3) THEN ! wet and dry PRODFLOW(ITA,IS,IT)=PRODFLWZ(ITA,IT)*0.990 ! ADV ENDIF ENDIF ! cement IF (INDDIR.EQ.8) THEN ! pulp and paper IF (IS.EQ.3) THEN ! waste paper PRODFLOW(ITA,IS,IT)=PRODFLWZ(ITA,IT)*1.0043 ! ADV END IF IF (IS.EQ.2) THEN ! bleach PRODFLOW(ITA,IS,IT)=PRODFLWZ(ITA,IT)*0.998 ! ADV END IF IF (IS.EQ.6) THEN ! kraft PRODFLOW(ITA,IS,IT)=PRODFLWZ(ITA,IT)*0.9959 ! ADV ENDIF IF (IS.EQ.7) THEN ! wood (to match kraft downsizing) PRODFLOW(ITA,IS,IT)=PRODFLWZ(ITA,IT)*0.9959 ! ADV ENDIF END IF ! paper IF (INDDIR.EQ.12) THEN ! steel IF (IS.EQ.8) THEN ! coke PRODFLOW(ITA,IS,IT)=PRODFLWZ(ITA,IT)*0.98 ! ADV END IF IF (IS.EQ.6) THEN ! bf/bof PRODFLOW(ITA,IS,IT)=PRODFLWZ(ITA,IT)* 0.990 ! ADV from .994 ENDIF IF (IS.EQ.7) THEN ! eaf PRODFLOW(ITA,IS,IT)=PRODFLWZ(ITA,IT)* 1.007 ! ADV ENDIF END IF ! steel ENDIF ! year if C LBNL END Moderate Scenario ??? (6) Positive TPC values Advanced Scenario The code is modified in 3 places to handle positive TPC values, which exist in the CEF-NEMS input data, but not in the EIA AEO99 Reference Case input data. On line 5520 and 5609, the following segment of code is added: C LBNL adapt code to handle positive tpcrate changes if (TPCRate(iv).le.0.0) then ! LBNL -- fix case for positive TPC if (enpint(iv,ifuel,istep).lt.minpint(iv)) then enpint(iv,ifuel,istep)= minpint(iv) endif else if (enpint(iv,ifuel,istep).ge.minpint(iv)) then enpint(iv,ifuel,istep)= minpint(iv) endif endif C end adapt code On line 5533, the following segment of code is inserted: C LBNL adapt code to handle positive tpcrate changes if (TPCRate(2).le.0.0) then if (enpint(2,ifuel,istep).ge.minpint(2)) then enpint(2,ifuel,istep)=minpint(2) endif else if (enpint(2,ifuel,istep).ge.minpint(2)) then enpint(2,ifuel,istep) = minpint(2) endif endif C END adapt code Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario. (7) Building energy use Advanced Scenario Building energy use consumption was modified based on off-line analysis of energy savings potentials at an end-use and fuel level for the industrial sector as a whole. We created a building energy use multiplier to reduce energy consumption. The multiplier is set to 1.0 in 2000 and allowed to decline by a consant rate (shown below) between 2000 and 2020. Annual Reduction Rate in Building Energy ConsumptionHVAC (%/year)Lighting (%/year)Gas1.5-Steam1.1-Electricity1.61.4On line 6616, the following code is inserted: beufac(1,1) = 1.0 ! elec beufac(1,2) = 1.0 ! gas beufac(1,3) = 1.0 ! steam beufac(2,1) = 1.0 ! elec beufac(2,2) = 1.0 ! gas beufac(2,3) = 1.0 ! steam IF (IY > 11) THEN beufac(2,1) = 0.9837**(IY-11) ! adv elec hvac beufac(2,2) = 0.9850**(IY-11) ! adv gas hvac beufac(2,3) = 0.9889**(IY-11) ! adv steam hvac beufac(1,1) = 0.9864**(IY-11) ! adv elec light ENDIF C LBNL On line 6643, the following line of code is inserted: ENBQTY(IS,IFUEL)=ENBQTY(IS,IFUEL)*BEUFAC(IS,IFUEL) Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario except the following values are used: Annual Reduction Rate in Building Energy ConsumptionHVAC (%/year)Lighting (%/year)Gas1.5-Steam0.0-Electricity0.51.3 (8) Steam boiler efficiency Advanced Scenario Steam boiler efficiency was modified based on off-line analysis by boiler fuel type. We created a boiler efficiency multiplier to increase the efficiency of boilers. The multiplier is set to 1.0 in 2000 and allowed to increase by a consant rate (0.28%/year for coal, 0.19%/year for oil, 0.32%/year for natural gas, 0.21% for wood, other, and MSW) between 2000 and 2020. On line 7225, the following segment of code is inserted: IF (YR > 11) THEN BOILFAC(1) = 1.0028 ** (YR-11) ! ADV BOILFAC(2) = 1.0019 ** (YR-11) ! ADV BOILFAC(3) = 1.0032 ** (YR-11) ! ADV BOILFAC(4) = 1.0021 ** (YR-11) ! ADV BOILFAC(5) = 1.0021 ** (YR-11) ! ADV BOILFAC(6) = 1.0021 ** (YR-11) ! ADV END IF On line 7224, the following line of code is inserted: incrheatrate= (1./(beff(ifuel)*BOILFAC(IFUEL)))*3412. Moderate Scenario Same as Advanced Scenario except that the following growth rates are used: 0.22%/year for coal, 0.13%/year for oil, 0.26%/year for natural gas, 0.07% for wood, other, and MSW. Electricity Sector Input file changes competitive pricing technology characterizations wind pv biomass cofiring Competivite Pricing Competitive pricing assumptions were extended to all 13 NEMS EMM regions. In the AEO99 Reference Case, only 5 regions are assumed to operate under competitive pricing. In the finreg input file, the fraction of region at marginal cost data lines are changed for regions 1,2,5,8,9,10,11,12. All Regions except 13 are assumed to have 100% marginal cost in 2008, scaled in linearly from 1999. Region 13 is assumed to have 1% marginal cost from 1999 to 2002, 40% marginal cost in 2003 growing linearly to 100% marginal cost in 2008. Solar PV Solar thermal technology assumptions are modified. The solar efficiency improvement factors in the solarin input file are changed for the years 2005 to 2020. The following values are used YearSolar Efficiency Improvement FactorOldNew20051.001.0220061.001.1420071.001.2620081.001.3820091.001.4920101.001.6020111.001.6220121.001.6420131.001.6620141.001.6820151.001.7020161.001.7220171.001.7420181.001.7620191.001.7820201.001.79Wind Aksdjf. Biomass Cofiring Askdkjf.  The RTEK includes file was modified to accomodate a larger rtekty technology input file.  The implicit discount rate is defined as the ratio of the Beta1 and Beta2 logit parameters used in the residential module to determine technology choice.  The RTEK includes file was modified to accomodate a larger rtekty technology input file.  The RTEK includes file was modified to accomodate a larger rtekty technology input file. ! 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