Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future

Project Description

The study uses a scenario-based approach to examine alternative portfolios of public policies and technologies. It seeks to develop a better understanding of the potential for R&D programs and public policies to foster clean energy technology solutions to the energy and environmental challenges facing the nation. These challenges include global climate change, air pollution, oil dependence, and inefficiencies in the production and use of energy. This report is the successor to the Five Lab Study (1997) and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation . The Clean Energy Future's report uses a modified version of the National Energy Modeling System.

 

It analyzes three major policy level scenarios Š Business-as-Usual (BAU), Moderate, and Advanced. The BAU forecast assumes a continuation of current energy policies and a steady pace of technological progress. In contrast, the Moderate and Advanced scenarios are defined by policies that are consistent with increasing levels of public commitment and political resolve to solving the nationÕs energy-related challenges. Some of the public policies and programs that define the scenarios are crosscutting; others are designed individually for each sector (buildings, industry, transportation, and electric generators) and assessed for impacts out to 2020. Numerous policies are examined, including fiscal incentives, voluntary programs, regulations, and research and development.

 

Jonathan Koomey (LBNL) and Andrew Nicholls (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PNL) were the lead authors of The Buildings sector. More information in the buildings analysis can be obtained here.

 

Ernst Worrell and Lynn Price (LBNL) were the lead authors of The Industry sector. More information in the industry analysis can be obtained here.

 

David Greene (ORNL) and Steve Plotkin (Argonne National Laboratory, ANL) were the lead authors of The Transportation sector.

 

Stanton Hadley (ORNL) and Walter Short (NREL) were the lead authors of The Electricity sector.

 

The Clean Energy Future's report uses sensitivities to analyze the impact of certain policies. A sensitivity analysis of the Clean Energy Future study's economic and carbon savings results is made by Etan Gumerman (LBNL), Jonathan G. Koomey (LBNL) and Marilyn A. Brown (ORNL). Several data files have been examined to show the information that has come out of the sensitivity analyses. More information on this analysis is on the sensitivity site bllllaaaaAAA

 

Marilyn A. Brown (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL), Mark D. Levine (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL), and Walter Short (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL) provided the overall National Laboratory leadership for the Clean Energy Future's study.

 

Project Staff

Marilyn A. Brown

Jonathan Koomey

Carrie Webber

Mark D. Levine

Ernst Worrell

Lynn K. Price

Andrew Nicholls

David Greene

Stanton Hadley

Steve Plotkin

Walter Short

Armande M. van Duin

 

Key Data

 

Publications

1. Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future
2. Executive Summary of the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future
3. Chapter 1 Integrated Analysis and Conclusions of the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future

Other Resources

Beating the heat: Why and how we must combat global warming. This book provides a good introduction for the lay person to the issues surrounding climate change, and the potential solutions.

 

American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE): This non-profit organization promotes energy efficiency and pollution prevention through education, analysis, and advocacy.

 

Environmental Protection Agency's Global Warming Site: This site describes the scope of the climate problem, exploring both scientific and policy dimensions

 

International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths: This non-profit organization analyzes the costs of reducing carbon emissions and addresses the policy issues surrounding the design of sustainable energy strategies.

 

Tellus Institute, Energy Group: This organization is a non-profit consulting firm that analyzes greenhouse gas mitigation strategies and other energy policy issues

 

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Network (EREN): This part of DOE promotes the development and adoption of efficiency and renewable energy technologies. It also works with EPA to design voluntary programs to promote energy efficiency and reduce pollution.

 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Division: This part of EPA designs voluntary programs to promote energy efficiency and reduce pollution.

 

Energy Information Administration

 

The Five Lab Study (1997) Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond

 

Sponsors

This report was commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. It was produced by the Interlaboratory Working Group, composed of scientists from Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

 

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