0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Outliner Z Z Sorter Z Z #Data #2 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z x Z .Data #3 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Data #4 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Data #5 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Data #6 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Data #7 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Data #8 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Data #9 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Data #10 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z Z .Data #11 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z| Zx .Data #12 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Zt Zp .Data #13 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Zl Zh .Data #14 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Zd Z` .Data #15 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z\ ZX .Data #16 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O ZT ZP .Data #17 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O ZL Z ZH .Data #18 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O ZD Z@ .Data #19 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z< Z8 .Data #20 @ P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 p ` P @ 0 ! !p ! " "` " # #P # # $@ $ $ %0 % % & &p & ' '` ' ( (P ( ( )@ ) ) *0 * * + +p + , ,` , - -P - - .@ . . /0 / / 0 0p 0 1 1` 1 2 2P 2 2 3@ 3 3 40 4 4 5 5p 5 6 6` 6 7 7P 7 7 8@ 8 8 90 9 9 : :p : ; ;` ; <
0 > > ? ?p ? @ @` @ A AP A A B@ B B C0 C C D Dp D E E` E F FP F F G@ G G H0 H H I Ip I J J` J K KP K K L@ L L M0 M M N Np N O O` O Z4
Z0 .TCHT d 6 ( > N ^ N ~ n 2 B R ^ ~ " n . Electronics Motor Heating Lighting Technology Category P @ P @ ` P $@ @ P
@ P @ P @ P P @ P @ P @ P @ P %@ P &@ P '@ P (@ P @ P
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Comparison of AEO97 Estimates and LBNL Results ( * P - - D
Annual Growth Rate = 3.7%
( * P - - D
Annual Growth Rate = 3.4%
( * P - -
Annual Growth Rate = 4.6%
( 8P - - 8 0 8
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Figure A-6: Comparison Graph of AEO97 and LBNL Forecast b ( p hP - b - b h 0 h
?
z
.
h
Our (LBNL) miscellaneous growth shown in this graph from 1996 to 2010 and our 2010 estimate of miscellaneous electricity includes expected growth from new products. This graph reflects the LBNL-Predicted Scenario Adjusted for New Products.
We adjusted our predicted scenario forecasted to account for growth from new products as described in our methodology. ( P - - 0
A-7 ( * P - - $ L,
Growth Rate
(1976-2010) ( P - - \ , L$
Growth Rate (1996-2010) ( P - - $ L,
Growth Rate (1976-1995) ( * <P - - <\ , L$ <
%
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Figure A-5: Annual Growth Rates by
Major End Use Category * ( 8 P - * - * $ L,
;
|
The end use category growth rates from 1996 to 2010 do not include an adjustment for new products. This graph reflects the LBNL-predicted scenario. ( P - - \ , L$
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Motor
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( P - - 4 h
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Growth Rate (1996-2010) ( P - - 4 h
Growth Rate (1976-2010) ( * DP - - D@ h 4 D
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Figure A-3: Growth Rate Comparison for Residential Electricity Use ( P - -
4 h
B
X
Y
Data Sources:
1976: Total Residential Electricity=Pierce 1994; Miscellaneous=Sanchez
1995 and 2010: Total Residential Electricity=AEO97; Miscellaneous=Sanchez
Our miscellaneous growth rate from 1976 to 2010 and 1996 to 2010 includes an adjustment for anticipated new products growth
We adjusted our predicted scenario forecast to account for projected growth from new products as described in our methodology ( P - - @ h 4
A-4 ( * IP - - I , I
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Figure A-2: Total Electricity Use in the Residential Sector
(1976-2010) ( P - - (
,
B
X
9
w
Data Sources:
1976: Total Residential Electricity=Pierce 1994; Miscellaneous=Sanchez
1995 and 2010: Total Residential Electricity=AEO97; Miscellaneous=Sanchez
The projected estimate of 2010 miscellaneous consumption and forecasted miscellaneous growth from 1996 to 2010 include an adjustment for new products.
We adjusted our predicted scenario forecast to include growth from new products as described in our methodology. ( P - - ,
1976 e ( P - - ( ,
1995 e ( P - - ,
2010 e ( * P - - ( ,
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(1976-1995) ( * P - - ,
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Figure A-4: Disaggregation of Miscellaneous Energy Use by Major End Use Category 8 ( F P - 8 - 8 $
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The estimated miscellaneous electricity consumption for 2010 and the projected miscellaneous growth from 1996 to 2010 does not include an adjustment for new products. This graph reflects the LBNL-predicted scenario described in the methodology. ( P - - $
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Figure A-1: Appliance shipments survival curve used in this analysis
r ( - - ( 0 ,1
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V B f : TCHT Default Transition n
None
No Transitionition V
None Window Shade Downn n
None Window Shade Right n
None Shutter Close Horizontal p
None Shutter Open Verticaltal p
None Slide UpOpen Verticaltal q
None Slide Rightn Verticaltal q
None Blinds Downn Verticaltal r
None Blinds Right Verticaltal r
None Random Squares Mediumtal s
None
Rain Downuares Mediumtal t
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None
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The projected estimate of 2010 miscellaneous consumption and forecasted miscellaneous growth from 1996 to 2010 include an adjustment for new products.
We adjusted our predicted scenario forecast to include growth from new products as described in our methodology. TCHT
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| $ | Z f Z f n o | & & n o | n o | n o | n o | I X I X n o | j j j j n o | 8 8 8 8 n o | u u n o l } | } | jp
\ } | } | jp l X u T X u T
l ;b X =& ;b X =&
l l { {
l 9 9 l N N \ } } p B \ | | p @ \ | | p & $ } } $ | | | @ @ l
o l J = J = jp ) l " 6 " 6 | 8 3 8 3 n o l | ! ! n o ! " # TCHT | } } | } | } | , , } } 4 v v l l b b X X N N D D : : )0 )0 =& =& Q Q e e y y , , @ @ T T h h | | N N Q Q | |TCHT @ l $ < T t Growth Rate 1976-1995 t Growth Rate 1995-2010 t Growth Rate 1976-2010 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Annual Growth Rate (%/yr) `
Miscellaneous Electricity N Total ElectricityTCHT
0 ( 8 P X B D B D v \, Growth Rate (1976-1995) TCHT
0 ( 8 P X B D B D ̺
" " L , \ Growth Rate (1996-2010) TCHT
0 ( 8 P X B D B D X \, Growth Rate (1976-2010) TCHT
, & ( * DP X 7 7 I ) I DL , \ D 3 D Figure A-3: Growth Rate Comparison for Residential Electricity Use TCHT
P x T P R R \,
X Data Sources:
1976: Total Residential Electricity=Pierce 1994; Miscellaneous=Sanchez
1995 and 2010: Total Residential Electricity=AEO97; Miscellaneous=Sanchez
Our miscellaneous growth rate from 1976 to 2010 and 1996 to 2010 includes an adjustment for anticipated new products growth
We adjusted our predicted scenario forecast to account for projected growth from new products as described in our methodology TCHT
( P X ( L , \ A-4 TCHT z @ @ (= + TCHT TCHT T o TCHT
D b 9 i b 9 i T "Ѽ o ? o ? H "Ѽ > > D "Ѽ E = E = @ "Ѽ 9 a d 9 a d < "Ѽ ~ ~ 8 "Ѽ B & . & . 4 "Ѽ q q 0 n ! w x
TCHT
tL * +P 0 + | - 9 D - 9 D n T o | D D n T o | ] i D ] i D n T o | n T o | n T o | n T o | f f f f n T o
| >3 M3 >3 M3 n T o | j j n T o | n
T o
| Ǚ ܙ Ǚ ܙ n T o | f f f f n T o !
| %3 :3 %3 :3 n
T o %
| T i T i n T o ) ! l b ^ b ^ jp \ b ^ b ^ jp P l z 2 z 2 !r l e z e z s l Q! e Q! e t l