R.J. Hwang, F.X. Johnson, R.E. Brown, J.W. Hanford and J.G.Koomey.

Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
Berkeley, CA 94720
May 1994

This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the U.S. residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (McMenamin et al. 1992). In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the U.S. residential sector (EIA 1993). Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption.

This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models (both the functional form and equation parameters) to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

The proliferation of models and model parameters and the lack of detailed documentation in the end-use forecasting area have been sources of considerable confusion for practitioners and policy-makers alike. By making explicit the data and assumptions behind our analysis, we seek to clear up some of this confusion and move the energy efficiency debate beyond simply the numerical results of models.

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