M. C. Sanchez, J. G. Koomey, M. M. Moezzi, A. K. Meier, and W. Huber

Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
Berkeley, CA 94720
April 1997

In this study, we developed a detailed bottom-up model of the miscellaneous electricity end use. Using shipment data and a consistent stock accounting framework, we estimate the energy use of 97 product types of varying importance over a 34 year period (1976-2010). Our study has two components: a historical analysis of miscellaneous electricity use (1976- 1995), and an end use forecast (1996-2010). Our historical analysis is based on shipment data for the period 1976 through 1995. For the majority of product types, our miscellaneous electricity forecast is based on either industry projections of future shipments or ARIMA models. By disaggregating the miscellaneous end use into more than ninety product types, our study provides the product-specific information that is necessary for directing future research, policy, and public information efforts. The main findings from our analysis are as follows:

Our study reveals issues associated with the current definition of the miscellaneous end use. In order to compare our results to estimates published in AEO97, our definition is consistent with EIA's miscellaneous end use break-down. We found that some product types currently defined as "miscellaneous" belong in conventional end use categories. For example, our miscellaneous definition includes microwave ovens, clothes washer and dishwasher motors, and evaporative coolers. We also found that the miscellaneous end use also includes energy use from new product types that have not been incorporated into EIA's conventional end use categories. The halogen torchiere lamp is an example of a new, but not "miscellaneous", product type that is included in the study due to definition issues.

During the period 1976 to 1995, miscellaneous electricity consumption increased at an annual rate of 4.6%. In 1995, miscellaneous electricity consumption totaled 235 TWh, accounting for approximately one quarter of total residential electricity use. From 1996 through 2010, we project that miscellaneous electricity consumption will increase 115 TWh, accounting for over 90% of forecasted residential electricity growth.

Our 1995 estimate for miscellaneous electricity consumption as well as our forecasted miscellaneous growth from 1996 to 2010 are lower than estimates published in AEO97. AEO97 estimates 1995 miscellaneous electricity at 337 TWh, compared to our estimate of 235 TWh. AEO97's forecasted growth rate from 1996 to 2010, 3.8%, is higher than our projected growth rate of 2.7%.

Miscellaneous product types can be binned into four broad categories: consumer electronics, electric resistance heaters, lighting, and small motors. We found that from 1976 to 1995, growth in consumer electronics product types (64 TWh) accounted for nearly half of miscellaneous electricity growth over this period. From 1996 to 2010, we project that consumer electronics and halogen torchiere lamps will together account for 70% of forecasted miscellaneous growth.

We included 97 individual product types in our study and found that only ten product types were responsible for over half of current miscellaneous consumption and forecasted miscellaneous growth. The following ten product types (listed in priority order based on absolute electricity consumption-the first product type listed having the highest energy consumption) were responsible for 53% of miscellaneous consumption in 1995:

• Color television
• Furnace fan
• Waterbed heater
• Torchiere lamp
• Microwave oven
• Auto Drip Coffee Maker
• Clothes washer Motor
• Dishwasher Motor
• Ceiling Fan
• Video cassette recorder

The following ten product types (listed in priority order based on absolute projected growth-the first product type listed having the highest forecasted energy growth) are projected to account for 60% of forecasted miscellaneous growth from 1996 to 2010:

• Torchiere lamp
• Color television
• Dehumidifier
• Security system
• Compact audio system
• Microwave oven
• Projection television
• Satellite System
• Pool pump
• Home computer

Our results show that 20% of residential miscellaneous electricity (43 TWh) is consumed while in standby mode. Nearly all standby consumption is attributed to consumer electronic product types. In 1995, nearly half of all consumer electronics energy was consumed while in standby mode. In terms of absolute consumption, the largest leakers include compact audio systems and component audio systems, televisions, cable boxes, and VCRs.

Reducing the standby power to one watt per unit for all product types with a standby mode has the potential to reduce U.S. standby consumption to 22 TWh, nearly a 50% reduction from current levels. By focusing only on standby losses, U.S. miscellaneous electricity consumption would be reduced by 21 TWh, saving roughly $1-2 billion annually. Other important efficiency opportunities include replacing halogen torchiere lamps with alternative CFL models, and improving the efficiency of fans for fuel-fired furnaces.

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